“Higher floor, lower ceiling” is my thought going into 2024, but it’s a particularly difficult AFL season to evaluate. I think all teams except the last three can compete for the final. I could be miles away when it comes to Sydney and Adelaide and for all I know the Western Bulldogs could be premiership or wooden spooners.
Here’s another wasted hide: part one of Guardian Australia’s 2024 AFL ladder prediction.
18. – West Side
“This too shall pass,” Adam Simpson said after another defeat last year. Somehow he kept his cool, his hair, and his job. Injuries, outbreaks, strength and conditioning issues, less committed players, poor roster management and more injuries all conspired against him. But in 2024, there is a group of talented, big-bodied kids. However, the hype around Harley Reid is completely insane; columns are devoted to him rather than to the Mayor of Perth.
17th – North Melbourne
2023 was an improvement for the Kangas. They lost 14 games by 45 or more points in 2022, dropping that number to six last year. This is still terrible, mind you. North lost nearly 1,500 games of experience in the offseason and could be without Jy Simpkin for an extended period of time after Jimmy Webster’s brutal hit over the weekend.
Alastair Clarkson will take inspiration from the 17 first-round picks on his list, many of whom are hugely talented and unused. Your problems will be left behind. A lot of goals will be scored on them. But it promises to be a wild ride for North fans.
16. – Hawthorn
The Hawks beat some very good teams last year: Collingwood, Brisbane, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs. But like most young rosters, they mixed up their form. As a player, Sam Mitchell played a patient game. He waited, watched and attacked. He looks like a trainer. Each of his statements can be roughly translated as “I know what I’m doing.”
Mitchell had good luck over the summer. They desperately needed another key defender and were pleased with the progress James Blanck was making. However, a few minutes after Changkuoth Jiath broke down again, he tore his anterior cruciate ligament. “If there were five players I could least afford to lose, I only lost two,” the coach told Nathan Buckley.
15th – Richmond
Richmond has been in a mild recession for several years. There were some memories in the scrapbook last year: Trent Cotchin’s 300th, the farewell match with Jack Riewoldt, the greatest hits parade against Geelong and Hawthorn’s comeback. But it was a frustrating season. Tom Lynch and Josh Gibcus limped off and Damien Hardwick couldn’t get out of there fast enough.
Now the messages are more cautious and realistic. ‘Look we will always be big and dangerous but this is not Dimma’s last ditch on the stumps anymore’, that’s the bottom line. Question marks heading into 2024 include Lynch’s right foot and the difference between his over and under.
14th – Essendon
Hardwick called them “a bunch of potatoes.” This is cruel. Essendon’s young players get a glimpse. Summers are nice. They have a good two weeks. However, they have not yet proven that they are long-term football players. They were stranded after the farewell last year. They won three of their last ten matches. They fell apart against generationally bad West Coast and North, losing by a combined 33 goals in the last two weeks. The GWS game was a real taste. The Collingwood game was over in a matter of minutes.
The first two months of 2024 look particularly challenging; both away at Adelaide, away at Sydney and Collingwood at the MCG, as well as St Kilda and the Bulldogs at Docklands.
13th – Sydney
It’s a difficult team to evaluate. There are a lot of people cheering for the Swans but I’m not convinced their recent form is up to par. Last year they left too many games on the table, took too many leads at three quarters and came up short against the best. They were lucky to get four points against Adelaide and won the game against North Melbourne thanks to a clerical error. Their captain has spent the best part of the summer suspended after their Mad Monday festivities and Luke Parker and Taylor Adams will miss the opening month. This will be painful for a team that struggled last year.
12. – Gold Coast
For Hardwick, the Suns’ roster was the final stop. Of course there was money, there was a long contract, there was a chance to leave the Melbourne fishbowl and start over with a new tan and a new club. But he loved the list. He called them “A wonderful new bundle of toys.” There is potential but not much evidence. Over the years, these players have stepped up their toes when it mattered. They disappointed their previous coach. They have never been a team you can trust with your life or even your money. They have never been a team willing to dig in and grind through the winter. Hardwick’s style requires total engagement and trust, two qualities this group has so far overlooked.
11th – Adelaide
The Crows were the league’s top scoring team in 2023. They won both Showdowns and made it to the premiere twice. They showed their best football in the matches they lost. However, they won only two of 10 away matches. In the end, despite the terrible decisions, the near misses, the big scores and the joyous bickering, they still weren’t good enough.
Adelaide is great to watch and expectations are high. They will face more important games than ever before. But to me, they still look a little light on the back end and single-pitch in the middle. I think Matthew Nicks is on the right track and they are definitely a team for the future, but I see them treading water this year.
10th – Western Bulldogs
I think we’re missing the point about the Bulldogs. We expect too much from them. Maybe they expect too much from themselves. These are certainly an enigma, a mockery, no doubt. But ultimately they appear and disappear in quarters, games, months and seasons. Just when you give up on them, they pull you back in. When they’re really purring, when Bont and Libba are in complete control, they can trick you into thinking they’re the best team in the competition. But they are often exposed by the bottom six teams and left exposed against the best.
Ninth – Geelong
Almost nothing went right for Geelong last year. They conceded two more goals per game than in 2022, which doesn’t sit well with Chris Scott. At various times, the entire top six was unavailable. The second Collingwood game summed up their season; brilliant bits, crazy moments and ultimately way below standard. Gary Rohan’s knockout of his teammate and most important player summed it up. As always, you take the good with the bad, even when Gary knocks you out.
That said, I really like their little ones coming in and had originally picked them as my sneak peek for 2024. But the injury to Cam Guthrie in the first eight seconds of their most sizzling scratch match scared me.
The second part of the AFL 2024 prediction ladder will be published tomorrow.