The eight potential competitors starting the Candidates tournament in Toronto on Thursday have an unusual feeling. Whoever wins will be the firm favorite to take the crown from the struggling team. Instead of Ding Liren being left out of the duo against Magnus Carlsen, who relinquished his title while still at the top of his game. The Female Candidates Competition is being held simultaneously for the first time.
The games will be shown live on Fide Youtube every day from 19.30 BST, with commentary from former world champion Vishy Anand and US No.1 woman Irina Krush. The best viewing site will probably be on Chess24 Youtube, where England’s David Howell and the #1 woman of all time, Judit Polgar, are the lead commentators. Another excellent choice is the ad-free Lichess rendition by Matthew Sadler and others from the UK.
Candidates
Fabiano Caruana (USA) 0.5-0.5 Hikaru Nakamura (USA)
Nijat Abasov (Azerbaijan) 0.5-0.5 Ian Nepomniachtchi (Fide/Russia)
Alireza Firouzja (France) 0.5-0.5 Praggnanandhaa R (India)
Gukesh D (India) 0.5-0.5 Vidit Gujrathi (India)
Female Candidates
Aleksandra Goryachkina (Fide/Russia) 0.5-0.5 Kateryna Lagno (Fide/Russia)
Anna Muzychuk (Ukraine) 0.5-0.5 Nurgyul Salimova (Bulgaria)
Lei Tingjie (China) 0-1 Tan Zhongyi (China)
Vaishali Rameshbabu (India) 0.5-0.5 Koneru Humpy (India)
Carlsen, now a former world champion but still ranked No. 1, claimed his sixth straight tournament victory by winning the top prize at the Grenke Classic in Karlsruhe, Germany, last weekend. The previous five were the Champions Tour final, World Rapid and World Blitz, Chessable Masters and Freestyle Challenge.
It wasn’t all smooth sailing as the 33-year-old Norwegian lost to Richard Rapport in the first round and had to go down again when they last met in the play-offs. The computer showed +99 for the Romanian, whose white king #1 was trapped in the eighth by the black rooks and should have pushed the free g-pawn, but he missed it due to extreme time constraints.
Ding arrived in Karlsruhe needing a good result to make up for his failures in Wijk aan Zee and the Freestyle Challenge this year, but this did not happen. Ding finished fifth of six games, including a 27-game streak without a win. He seemed indifferent, but he had a few positives. First, he drew with Carlsen in their first meeting in classical chess since the world championship changed hands; Secondly, he confirmed that he will compete for China both in Norway next month, where Carlsen is expected, and at the Budapest Olympics in September, and that he is trying to regain fitness to defend his title.
This is an open Candidate and at least half the field are realistic contenders. Fabiano Caruana and Ian Nepomniachtchi have done this before, Hikaru Nakamura narrowly missed out on 2022, Alireza Firouzja will be the youngster at his best, while Praggnanandhaa R, arguably the best among the three Indian men’s players in the field, will have eight wise players. -The Russian champion of the time, Peter Svidler, was his runner-up.
US champion Caruana is the overall favorite due to his consistent form over many years, his title match draw with Carlsen in 2018 (before the draw) and his classic, rational and controlled style of play. However, there is an opinion that the 31-year-old football player has become more vulnerable to suffocation at critical moments due to his failure in the last two Candidates races and the last American Cup.
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Nakamura would be a popular winner. The streamer, who has over a million followers, is liked and admired for his fast-paced speech and remarkable blitz skills. He could have qualified for the championship match with Nepomniachtchi in 2022, but he ruined his chances by playing passively against Ding in the final round. Although Viktor Korchnoi and Boris Gelfand had done it in their 40s, at 36 he was considered old for a first-time challenger.
Nepomniachtchi’s previous two Candidates were preceded by a high-profile promotion for their assistants and a Moscow supercomputer. This time, the situation was much simpler, as was the case in recent tournaments, such as the Russian’s 50% score in Wijk aan Zee.
He has the strongest motivation among all the candidates, as he took the lead three times against Ding in 2023 and missed many opportunities to win the match. According to current Fide ratings, the chances of winning Adiyalar this time are only around 10%.
Alireza Firouzja is only 20 years old but he already has a long career. She was one of the favorites for 2022 but only finished sixth and has since called time on an alternative career in fashion design before a last-minute qualification via a controversial route. He is an outstanding talent but there is a question mark over his consistency at the moment.
Youngsters have a poor record in the Nominees rankings, so while Praggnanandhaa (18) and Gukesh D (17) will get encouragement from tens of thousands of Indian fans, these Nominees could be a learning experience. Vidit Gujrathi, the third Indian men’s player in the tournament, has qualified for the tournament through Fide Grand Swiss but he is ranked only 25th in the world rankings, while Azerbaijan’s Nijat Abasov is a 100-1 outsider.
My hesitant pick is Nepomniachtchi for third victory, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Caruana, Nakamura or Firouzja win. Who do Guardian readers choose?
Female Candidates seem easier to predict. Russia’s Aleksandra Goryachkina and China’s Lei Tingjie are the two highest-rated players; Both have won the Candidates award before, and both came close in their world title matches against champion Ju Wenjun. My narrow preference is for the Russian.
3914 1….Qh8+! 0-1 If 2 Kd5/e4 Qh1+ skewers White’s king and queen. If 2 Kf4 Bd6+! and now if the queen wins 3 Qxd6 Qh2+, 3 Ke4 Qh1+ swells, 3 Kg4 Qh5 pairs. If 2 Ke6 Qh3+ if 3 Kf6/e5 Qf5 is checkmated or 3 Kd5 Qh1+ is spade. if 2 Qf6 Bg7 wins the queen.