If opinion polls are to be believed, Torygeddon is coming. Last week, two were added to the pile of polls now suggesting that cabinet ministers will be ousted like the Portillos in the upcoming general election. According to YouGov and Survation, those at risk include Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt and Commons leader Penny Mordaunt; he is perhaps best known for holding a sword during his coronation and apparently maneuvering for the post-Rishi Sunak leadership (though friends deny this). Conservative Party.
But it was easy to find solid Tory voters in the North Portsmouth constituency on Friday afternoon and there was little enthusiasm for Labour.
Retired midshipman Barry Spencer, 82, of Cosham high street, spoke about the triple lock of pensions. “I’ve been blue my whole life. “He was a good MP for us,” he said. His main concern was with “hesitant young people in their 30s, 40s and 50s” who did not share his negative views of the Labor Party. “So the Conservatives have a big problem on their hands.”
Lucy Fuller was out for a walk with her two-week-old twins. Is he a Penny fan? “Very so. “I like a lot of your values.” Mordaunt’s Royal Navy reservist’s past objections. “I’m a former soldier; I think he’s a strong voice in support of the armed forces.”
Cosham is located at the northern end of Portsmouth North, divided by the M27. This is a key election battleground where Labor must advance to win. The low street is noted by many people, including Labor Party worker Nick Doyle, who is walking his dog. His biggest concern was the cost of living of the crisis. “The high street is the most visual impact of this. That and food banks. People can’t afford to shop.”
This is not encouraging news for Labor candidate Amanda Martin. “It’s just polls, right?” she said. “My concern is that people will see the polls and think it’s not worth voting for. Actually, this is a huge task. [Penny] I have been a member of parliament for 14 years. “That’s a huge majority.” Mordaunt beat Martin in 2019 with 15,780 votes and a 61.6% share.
The national vote is remarkable and more scientific than the voices on the sidewalk. YouGov’s MRP (post-multilevel regression and stratification) poll of 18,700 people shows Labor will take 36% of the vote, comfortably ahead of the Conservatives on 31%, with the Liberal Democrats, who control Portsmouth city council, on 11%. and suggested that Reform UK would receive 16 votes. %.
Reformation is perhaps Mordaunt’s biggest problem. The party’s predecessor, Ukip, performed strongly in Portsmouth, with some of the Ukip candidates winning council seats on behalf of the Portsmouth Independent Party (PIP).
In Paulsgrove, west of Cosham, several people mentioned PIP councilor George Madgwick. “I would be Labour, but I don’t have much confidence in Starmer,” said bus driver Chris Vallely. “I will vote independently in local elections.” Cost of living is the biggest problem. “Everything is going up; council tax is going up, gas and electricity are going up, but they are making record profits and the profits are going abroad,” added Vallely.
Courtney Jones also talked about Madgwick with her young daughter – “potholes are a big problem here and he’s done a lot too” – but had not decided how she would vote in the general election: “Never Tories.”
Demographic changes, particularly the expansion of the University of Portsmouth, have helped Labor in Portsmouth South, which has been held by shadow transport minister Stephen Morgan since 2017. There has been less change in the north, although it is dominated by the Queen Alexandra Hospital, which was rebuilt in 2009. piece of land. Most parties agreed that the main issues on the doorstep were the cost of living, dental care and GPs. The Liz Truss prime ministership, immigration, Gaza and Brexit were also featured.
The size of Mordaunt’s majority means Portsmouth North is 213th on Labour’s list of target seats, so Martin is unlikely to attract much interest. But Morgan is a useful ally. He believes the Conservatives do not spend as much in North Portsmouth as they do in places like Milton Keynes.
The Liberal Democrats are focusing their efforts on Winchester and Chichester, where they have a chance of unseating Gillian Keegan, so they are unlikely to face a major challenge there, he said.
Darren Sanders, the Liberal Democrat councilor for Baffins, which is part of Portsmouth North, believes Labor could take the seat if it tried. “The result will have huge consequences for British politics,” he said. “Penny is a realistic candidate for Tory leader. If they lose, they’ll be left with culture warriors Kemi Badenoch and Suella Braverman. There is no love for the Conservatives on the doorstep, but there is no enthusiasm for Starmer’s Labor Party.”
A spokesman for Mordaunt said: “People know him in Portsmouth and I think he fought and served for them but perhaps more meaningfully.” [is] No one in Westminster ever has to look at where he comes from. He is Pompey through and through.”