A new poll reveals Kate Forbes is more popular with the Scottish public than SNP favorite John Swinney as First Minister.
The Ipsos poll, the first since Humza Yousaf announced his resignation, found that 26 per cent of voters favored Ms Forbes when presented with a list of possible candidates, compared with 20 per cent for Mr Swinney.
But while 30 per cent of SNP supporters said Mr Swinney was their top candidate, just 21 per cent chose Ms Forbes. They also believed he was more likely to do a good job.
The poll also showed a majority of Scots (81 per cent) believed Mr Yousaf was right to resign on Monday, with more than half (51 per cent) saying he had made no difference to life in Scotland during his year as First Minister.
This figure rose to 60 per cent among those who voted SNP in the 2021 Holyrood election. The same proportion also stated that he made the wrong decision by breaking up his coalition agreement with the Scottish Greens and that the inept management of this agreement led to his resignation.
The poll was published after Ms Forbes said she had received “huge support”, offering her strongest hint that she would enter the SNP leadership contest.
SNP needs to ‘look outside the bubble’
The former Scottish finance minister has confirmed publicly for the first time that he is “weighing in” by putting his name forward to replace Mr Yousaf as SNP leader and First Minister.
He also entered the contest to replace Nicola Sturgeon last year but lost to Mr Yousaf by a margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent, despite the support of the party establishment.
Although he praised Mr Swinney, who was deputy first minister in Nicola Sturgeon’s government, he argued that Mr Yousaf’s successor should not be crowned without competition.
Ms Forbes told Sky News that SNP members “must get behind the next leader” and that the selection process should take their views into account; This is something that may not happen at the coronation.
His allies have also pleaded with him to put his name forward, warning that the SNP must “look outside the bubble” by choosing the candidate who is most popular with all voters rather than just party members.
Mr Swinney is the clear favorite to win his second mandate as SNP leader; party elders and several potential leadership rivals are quickly lining up behind him.
But the 60-year-old actor has been accused of being “yesterday’s man” after playing a key role in the governments of Alex Salmond and Ms Sturgeon. He also failed in his first term as SNP leader from 2000 to 2004.
Candidates have until noon next Monday to enter the race, and 100 party members in 20 branches must nominate candidates. All SNP members will vote on the candidates. The SNP’s ruling national executive committee will decide next week the length of the process, depending on whether it is a contest or a coronation.
Forbes ‘has wider appeal among voters’
Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “The SNP will seek to elect a leader who can unite the party, ensure legislation and budgets can be passed by securing the cooperation of opposition parties, and reverse the party’s decline in electoral polls.”
“While Swinney is better positioned than Forbes to address the first two of these, on the third point the evidence suggests Forbes may now have broader appeal among voters than Swinney.”
The poll found 37 percent of voters thought both Mr. Swinney and Ms. Forbes would do a good job. While 23 percent thought he would perform poorly, 24 percent said the same about him.
But Mr Swinney scored much higher among SNP voters; While 58 percent said it would get good votes, only 10 percent said it would get bad votes. Ms. Forbes’ figures were 46 percent and 22 percent, respectively.
Scots are evenly divided on whether Mr Yousaf’s decision to end his coalition with the Greens was the right one; 45 percent support and the same percentage oppose.
But 37 per cent of respondents said Ms Sturgeon had made Scotland worse off since taking over last year, while just 8 per cent said she had changed the country for the better.
Backing Sir Keir Starmer, 39 per cent of voters said Labor would run the Scottish government better than the SNP, while just 27 per cent said it would do a worse job. The survey, in which 1,127 adults participated, was conducted on Monday and Tuesday this week.
Speaking as MSPs returned to Holyrood for the first time since Mr Yousaf’s resignation on Monday, Ms Forbes said: “Obviously I’m still weighing up all my options. I know there is great support for me among the members. This was very clear in the last competition, which I know you followed closely.
“Obviously I will take that into consideration and try to evaluate what is best for my country, my party and my family.”
Asked if she was pressured not to stand and whether that would be a “seam” if Mr Swinney was crowned, Ms Forbes said: “I think the membership should be behind the next leader and the process should reflect that.”
Forbes supporter and former business secretary Ivan McKee argued that “it is important that this contest takes place and I continue to believe that Kate Forbes is the person who can reach this wider electorate”.
‘Fresh thinking and fresh talent’
Michelle Thomson, who was Ms Forbes’ campaign manager last year, also said there should be “an opportunity for a democratic expression of will by SNP members”.
Arguing that political parties need to be “constantly renewed”, he said he “cannot believe it was 24 years ago” that Mr Swinney was last elected leader.
He stood down as deputy first minister alongside Ms Sturgeon last year, saying his time at the top of the SNP was over because it needed “new thinking and new talent”.
Mr Swinney also said he was still weighing whether to replace Mr Yousaf but dismissed the “yesterday’s man” swag, saying “people always have a contribution to make”.
He said: “What has changed is that my party finds itself in a very different and more difficult situation than it was 12 months ago, and I will not be doing a service to the many, many, many people who have contacted me and asked me to stop.”
“It would not be my style to ignore the representations made to me. “I am someone who listens, listens and addresses issues that are brought to my attention, and that is exactly what I am doing right now.”