Most of us have encountered turbulence while traveling: When your plane flies through colliding air masses moving at very different speeds.
Severe turbulence can make even the most experienced pilot uneasy and make five minutes feel like an eternity. It usually results in nothing more than a bumpy ride, but in the worst cases it can cause damage, injury and (in the case of Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 on May 21) death.
In nonfatal crashes, turbulence is the leading cause of injuries to flight attendants and passengers, according to the Federal Aviation Administration, and is one of the most common types of airline crashes today, according to the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board. According to the National Center for Atmospheric Research, injuries, delays and damage cost U.S. airlines up to $500 million a year.
“There is a scale that measures how strong turbulence is,” Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the United Kingdom, told CNN in 2022. “There’s slight turbulence, which puts a bit of a strain on your seat belt.” , but meal service can continue and you can probably move around the cabin, perhaps with some difficulty.
“Then there is moderate turbulence, there is significant tension on the seat belts, anything that is not secured comes loose and it becomes difficult to walk; Flight attendants are usually instructed to take their seats.
“The worst is severe turbulence: this is stronger than gravity, so it can pin you to your seat and be thrown around the cabin if you don’t wear your seatbelt. This is the kind of turbulence that causes serious Injury; For example, it is known for breaking bones.”
Attacks fast and has no visual cues
Approximately 65,000 aircraft experience moderate turbulence and approximately 5,500 aircraft experience severe turbulence each year in the United States. However, these numbers are likely to increase. Williams believes climate change is altering turbulence and began studying the issue in 2013. “We did some computer simulations and found that severe turbulence could double or triple in the coming years,” he says.
The findings, later confirmed by observations, highlight a type of turbulence called “clear-sky turbulence” that is not linked to any visual cues such as thunderstorms or clouds. Unlike normal turbulence, it hits suddenly and is difficult to avoid.
According to the NTSB, in approximately 28% of turbulence-related crashes between 2009 and 2018, no warning was given to the flight crew. Williams’ analysis predicts that clear-air turbulence will increase significantly around the world in the period 2050-2080, especially on the busiest flight routes, and that the strongest type of turbulence will increase.
But that doesn’t mean flying will be any less safe. “Planes won’t start falling out of the sky because the planes are built to very high specifications and can withstand the worst turbulence they can expect to encounter, even in the future,” Williams says.
However, the average duration of turbulence will increase. “Usually on a transatlantic flight you can expect 10 minutes of turbulence. I think in a few decades this could increase to 20 minutes or half an hour. Unfortunately for passengers, the seatbelt sign will be on a lot more.”
Seat belt sign is now on
Keeping your seat belt fastened at all times while seated is the best way to minimize the risk of injury from turbulence.
However, flight attendants are more exposed to this risk than passengers, sustaining approximately 80% of turbulence-related injuries. “We’re the ones getting hurt the most because we keep working, pushing 300-pound cars even though there’s some kind of warning,” said Sara Nelson, a United flight attendant and U.S. president with more than two decades of experience. The Association of Flight Attendants, a union representing 50,000 flight attendants at 20 airlines, told CNN in 2022.
“We have flight attendants who have been thrown into the ceiling several times and then come back down, resulting in broken limbs. “We had people in the hallway who lost toes due to unannounced turbulence, lost the ability to work, or suffered injuries that kept them away from work for years,” he adds.
Nelson says that the aviation industry takes the problem very seriously, but that the transition to sustainable fuel must be accelerated and some regulations must be changed to combat the climate crisis. For example, the ability of children under the age of two to fly in their parents’ arms.
“This is a completely unsafe situation and our union is demanding a seat for everyone on board,” says Nelson. “Not only can a child be thrown around the cabin, but when he lands he can actually hurt someone else. When a child is born, you cannot leave the hospital unless you have a properly installed car seat. “The same standards should be applied to flying.”
Call for strict new rules
The NTSB held a public hearing on turbulence in 2021, during which it offered the same recommendation, along with stricter rules for wearing seat belts for both passengers and flight attendants when aircraft are flying near thunderstorms and below 20,000 feet. Most injuries occur under these conditions. It was also recommended to modernize systems for collecting and sharing turbulence reports, as this information is currently not disseminated widely or quickly enough.
Although it will take many years for the effects of climate change on turbulence to become apparent, Nelson believes some worsening has already occurred.
“This is anecdotal, of course, but there seems to have been an increase in turbulence activity since Hurricane Katrina, particularly turbulence that came with no warning,” he says.
His worst turbulence experience ever occurred during a flight to Dallas, and the flight was eventually diverted.
“Whenever something happens on the plane, passengers look at us to see if we look worried,” he adds. “I was flying with a very close friend of mine and we were strapped into the jump seats, facing the back of the plane; So instead of passengers, there was a toilet in front of us.
“Thank God, because we were hugging each other and being thrown around in our seats so violently it felt like our brains were going crazy. “This went on for a very long time, but luckily we were able to land safely,” he says.
“Usually I’m not afraid of turbulence because it’s something we’re taught in training and we know what we need to do to protect ourselves. But it’s possible for turbulence to be so bad and go on for so long that even though I knew all this, my friend and I were praying and I have to say, my dear “I was afraid for that.”
This story was first published in September 2022. Updated and republished in May 2024.
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