A few weeks ago I asked readers whether I should vote Conservative. Now the question is: should I vote for Reform? The debate in my mind is no longer about who will form the next government – that’s over, it’s Labour’s – but about who the little Tories will prefer to see as the opposition.
It is not inconceivable that on July 4 the Conservative Party will have fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats and fewer votes than Reform. In this case, the centre-right’s historical claims of being a monopoly party will come to an end.
Last week brought life to a boring election. Rishi had a good argument but Nigel Farage stole the show by taking back control of Reform and announcing a bid for Clacton-on-Sea. Sunak then skipped D-Day. I have my sympathies: I hate long ceremonies and once invented a car crash to escape a wedding. But his early departure appeared designed to infuriate the Tory base, reminding them of how artless and unsympathetic Rishi really was. Blair’s heirs have professionalized British politics to the point of amateurism.
To add insult to injury, the Prime Minister used his final days in office to parachute friends and allies into safe seats. Happily, many will lose. Unfortunately, the survivors of the July massacre may win enough to ensure that what remains of parliament is dominated by liberals who think the Conservative Party is going up in flames because they don’t spend enough, tax enough or take in enough immigrants.
It is this predictable stupidity that makes one want to eliminate most of them at once.
I feel toothless sans-culottes examines a row of juicy heads: guillotine, hit, hit, hit!
But here’s the thing: Conservatives are not revolutionaries, we are monarchists. We like peace and order, we like to take a good look before we leap. So what is this thing called Reformation?
Most polls point to an increase in support, but at varying levels. Savanta puts them at just 11 percent; YouGov has Reform two points behind the Conservatives on 17 points; Redfield & Wilton says they are ahead among men and seniors. If a shift in poll position is possible, it needs to happen soon; Because this is manifesto week that will dominate the headlines.
Farage relies on free media for publicity. He enjoys discussions. Laura Kuenssberg, recalling that one of her advisors was convicted of fraud, said that she believed in forgiveness and remained loyal to her friends (bravo).
Penny Mordaunt’s hairdo resembled a bird of prey in flight during last Friday’s seven-way debate – when she answered the immigration question with stark and disturbing numbers.
Labor and the Conservative Party’s decision to run super-controlled presidential campaigns now looks like a gamble in the face of a Teflon demonstrator who could sell Arthur Daley a used car – and the triumph of personality hides the Reformation’s problems.
First of all, the party is nothing without Nigel. Critics characterize it as a shell company owned by Farage but until recently dependent on money from Richard Tice: in mid-May, it was reported that Tice was responsible for around 80 percent of declared loan and donation funding since 2021 .
This helps explain his underwhelming performance in the midterm elections; Reform did not have the volunteers or infrastructure necessary to compete and lacked the exciting issue of Brexit.
It is torn apart by fights. When Farage announced his candidacy for Clacton, Reform’s current candidate, Tony Mack, dutifully stood aside; The last time I saw Mack he was on top of the Reform bus, waving at the punters. Days later, he announced that he would run as an independent candidate instead. He shared a post on Facebook denouncing “sneaky assholes who disguise themselves as good people.”
I met many nice, entertaining Reformers in Clacton. I also met some racists and Tommy Robinson fans. Over the past decade, Ukip/Brexit Party/Reform has played a significant and unsung role in neutralizing the far right by channeling anger into legitimate politics; but a party defined by its longing for domination will always be a magnet for deplorability, and this may have been the theme that ended the Reformation’s honeymoon.
Journalists tracked down candidates who said asylum seekers were natural liars or compared black people to monkeys. It was quick to sideline bigots in defense of reform, and the not-so-right-wing Green Party was also forced to take action against candidates accused of antisemitism.
Meanwhile, if Blue Wall voters find Reform liberal, Red Wall voters may be surprised to hear Nigel calling for a new funding structure for the NHS. The party’s website suggests this means expanding private sector capacity rather than selling to Tesco; but the populist Right has often struggled to reconcile a poor man’s cultural values with a rich man’s economics, and Farage is essentially a dissident Thatcherite. Labour’s attack lines write themselves.
In short, those considering replacing the Conservative Party with Reform are replacing a party with history, experience and breadth with a one-man band that is completely unacceptable to core sections of the electorate (and absurd for Scottish nationalists).
However, the slim chance of Reformation winning seats is changing the way we think about the future of the British Right. I suspect this will involve not a mass defection to Reform but a compromise between Reform and Conservatives, producing a hybrid movement that moves politics decisively towards the populism we see on the Continent.
The legacy of Brexit is to make us more European politically. One day Prime Minister Miriam Cates will elevate Nigel Farage to the Lords.
Achieving this long-term realignment is much more interesting than the current elections. The thought of Starmer winning does not impress me. Despite some mild hysteria, no one believes he is a socialist, and there is nothing the Conservative Party says Labor can do that the Conservative Party has not already done in historical figures.
That’s why the party label is being discredited. Millions of us will vote on a candidate-by-candidate basis, scanning individual voting records or declarations (hard Conservatives, Reform or Social Democratic Party) to elect the MP we most want in place when the British conservative movement is rebuilt. after the flood.