The heat wave that caused more than 100 million people to sweat in the eastern United States in June 2024 was so fast and so intense that forecasters warned that a sudden drought could hit large swathes of the region.
Prolonged high temperatures can quickly dry out soils and trigger a rapid drought that can affect agriculture, water supplies, and energy supplies. Abnormally dry conditions rapidly developed in many areas under the June hot dome.
The humanitarian effects of the heat wave have also become widespread. Emergency room visits for heat-related illnesses have increased in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Many schools in Massachusetts without air conditioning were closed to protect children and teachers. In New York and New Jersey, power lines sagged due to the heat, trains entering and leaving New York were closed and passengers were stranded.
We examine weather conditions that involve heat. The June 2024 heat wave was unusually early and long lasting compared to typical patterns in the Northeastern US
This was caused by a large high-pressure system called a heat dome that extended more than 10 miles from the ground into the atmosphere. A heat dome is both a cause and a consequence of extreme heat. Very large and powerful heat domes, such as the Northeast event, which reach higher into the atmosphere than previous June events, have the potential for higher temperatures to affect more people.
It was also part of a global epidemic of early season heat that put lives at risk in many countries around the world.
Heat is becoming a global problem
Record temperatures in 2024 hit many countries in America, Europe and Asia. Persistent temperatures of up to 51.8 degrees Celsius lasting for weeks in Mexico and Central America, combined with prolonged drought, led to severe water shortages. and dozens of deaths.
Extreme heat in Saudi Arabia turned into a tragedy when more than 1,000 people fainted and died during the Hajj, a Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca. Temperatures reached 125 F (51.8 C) at the Grand Mosque in Mecca on June 17.
In Greece, where temperatures soared above 38C for several days in June, at least several tourists have died or are feared dead after going hiking in dangerous heat and humidity conditions.
India also faced temperatures around 120 F (49 C) for days in April and May, affecting millions of people, many of whom were without air conditioning.
Climate connection: This is not normal
Although heatwaves are a natural part of the climate, the intensity and extent of heatwaves so far this year are not “just summer.”
A scientific assessment of the US heat wave estimates that such severe and prolonged heat is two to four times more likely to occur today due to human-caused climate change than it would be without it. This result is consistent with the rapid increase in the number of US heat waves over the past several decades and their occurrence outside the summer peak.
These record heat waves are occurring in a climate that is approximately 2.2 F (1.2 C) warmer globally than before the industrial revolution, when humans began emitting large amounts of climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions.
While a temperature difference of one or two degrees may not be noticeable when you enter a different room, even a tiny fraction of a degree makes a huge difference in the global climate.
About 20,000 years ago, at the peak of the last ice age, when the Northeastern United States was under thousands of feet of ice, the global average temperature was only 10.8 F (6 C) colder than now. So it’s no surprise that the 2.2 F (1.2 C) of warming so far is changing the climate rapidly.
Countries pledged to keep warming well below 2C under the Paris Agreement in 2015, but current government policies around the world will not meet these targets. Temperatures will continue to rise and are expected to more than double again by the end of the century.
If you thought it was hot
Although this summer will most likely be one of the hottest summers on record, it should not be forgotten that it may also be one of the coldest summers of the future.
The risks are even higher for populations that are particularly vulnerable to heat, including young children, older adults, and those who work outdoors. People in low-income neighborhoods where air conditioning is unaffordable and renters who don’t have the same protections for cooling as heating will face increasingly dangerous conditions.
Extreme heat can also affect economies. It can bend railroad tracks and cause cables to sag, causing transit delays and disruptions. It can also overload electrical systems with high demand, leading to power outages just when people need cooling the most.
Good news: There are solutions
Yes, the future is daunting in a warming world. But countries have made significant progress. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 has the potential to nearly halve US greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
Switching air conditioners to heat pumps and networked geothermal systems not only reduces fossil fuel emissions but also provides cooling at a lower cost. The cost of renewable energy continues to fall and many countries are increasing policy support and incentives.
There is much humanity can do to limit future warming if countries, companies and people around the world take urgent action. Rapidly reducing fossil fuel emissions could help prevent a hotter future with even worse heatwaves and droughts; It can also provide other benefits, such as improving public health, creating jobs and reducing risks to ecosystems.
This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent, nonprofit news organization providing facts and authoritative analysis to help you understand our complex world. Written by Mathew Barlow UMass Lowell and Jeffrey Basara, UMass Lowell
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Mathew Barlow received funding from the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Forecasting and Projection Program to study heat waves.
Jeffrey Basara received funding from the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Science Foundation to study flash droughts and extreme temperatures.