Top advisers have warned that the “unpredictable” or even “unstable” Emmanuel Macron could resign after a second round of parliamentary elections on Sunday.
“I know the man, this is not science fiction,” a former senior adviser told The Telegraph of the French president, whose centrist alliance is likely to be left with half the number of MPs it had last month in early elections.
The latest polls suggest Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party will fall short of a majority, with parties from the far left to the centre struggling to form a government or France facing political paralysis.
According to Elysée sources, Macron is enjoying “throwing an undetonated grenade” at the French political establishment and voters by dissolving parliament following the defeat in the EU elections.
But now she faces the final three years of her presidency with no clear majority, and even her closest allies fear that if she steps down, the grenade could become a cluster bomb. If current popularity polls are correct, an early presidential election could send Ms Le Pen to the Elysee.
Mr Macron insisted he would not resign in a letter to the French people published in the regional daily press two weeks ago. “You can count on me to act as your president until May 2027,” he wrote.
Asked by Le Figaro magazine whether he had “lost his mind” as some suggested, he said: “No, not at all. I can confirm that I have not lost. I am only thinking of France.”
But one loyal cabinet member commented: “Over the past seven years, I have had the opportunity to spend many hours with others. [Mr Macron]One day, he might promise something to your face and the next day, he might do the exact opposite. Completely the opposite.
“That’s why I have doubts when he says ‘I will never leave’,” the MP told Le Parisien.
“He swore to us he wouldn’t draw national conclusions from the European elections and we’re out. He can do anything,” said another. “I don’t know what’s going through his mind. He’s become uncatchable,” said a third.
They pointed to Mr Macron’s decision to pop champagne corks last Sunday – when the humiliating first-round election results were announced – to celebrate a friend’s birthday. The results threw the Ensemble camp into disarray and it is likely to be slashed from 250 seats to 118 in Sunday’s second-round vote.
“Has he lost touch with reality that much?” asked a senior cabinet minister.
“Our MPs are wiped off the legislative map and he takes a moment to toast his friends. What’s the next step? He resigns, Le Pen is elected president and a big ball is held in the Elysee party room to celebrate his departure?”
‘Howling Madman Murdoch’
The bizarre photos of Mr Macron in sunglasses and a bomber jacket, taken in Le Touquet last Sunday, have led to comparisons on social media with fictional pilot Captain HM “Howling Madman” Murdock, who was declared mentally ill in the hit 1980s TV series The A-Team.
There are numerous theories as to Macron’s motive for dissolving parliament, with some suggesting he hopes to expose the RN as a group of charlatans in government and thereby prevent Le Pen from being elected president in 2027.
His father, Jean-Michel Macron, offered some ideas this week, saying: “It is better for France to experience this.” [the RN in power] from five to two years.
“If the RN shows in two years that it is completely unable to govern, we can expect it to go no further. My son told me that two months before the European elections,” he told Le Dauphiné Libéré, a regional newspaper.
You were a lame duck for three years?
But some commentators fear the hyperactive 46-year-old may not be able to stay in office until 2027.
The royal family won 170-205 seats, an Ipsos Talan poll on Friday showed, a huge increase from the current 89 seats but well short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.
Meanwhile, speculation is rife that the Socialists, Communists and Greens could form a “republican front” with Mr Macron’s weakened centrist camp and centre-right Republican lawmakers who have not joined forces with Ms Le Pen.
However, the Leftist France Movement, led by former Trotskyist agitator Jean-Luc Mélenchon, refused to join such a “republican front”.
In either case, Mr Macron is heading towards a process of power-sharing “cohabitation” in which his role will be limited to foreign and defence policy; and even there his wings as an international statesman will probably be clipped.
Le Pen called for Mr Macron to go if her party suffered a major defeat, saying that given that restructuring and new elections were impossible, “the only way out of a possible political crisis is for the president to resign”.
But some observers say he will not do such a thing.
“The guy is actually extremely rational,” one aide said. “He’ll never resign. He’s very level-headed… He knows that if he were to resign, he would do it. [go]It would mean the end of the Fifth Republic [and leave Ms Le Pen in power].”
A lawmaker from Mr Macron’s Renaissance party said: “I am convinced that he has not thought about it, it does not suit his type. He does not care one bit about disrupting others. But disrupting himself is not his thing.”
For another MP, the reality was more mundane. “He’s not God, he’s not mentally ill. He’s just a guy who made a big mistake.”