Welcome back to the Guardian’s MLS Power Rankings; I’m joining your special team and only your special team here. I hired Drake Callender to save me from dangerous objects that would be thrown my way by readers outraged by these rankings. Hey, he’s good enough for Inter Miami, he’s good enough for me.
Now, as a reminder, these are not your standard run-of-the-mill power rankings. We still rank the teams from worst to first. But aside from the rankings, we’re also diving into a handful of teams from around the league that are doing particularly interesting things.
Austin, we have a problem
29) San Jose Earthquakes
28) Chicago Fire
27) Sporting Kansas City
26) New England Revolution
25)Nashville SC
24) Austin FC
Want to know who the worst team in the Western Conference is in 2024, based on FBref’s expected goal difference metric? Hint: It’s not the San Jose Earthquakes who are packing the Wooden Spoon. Neither is Sporting Kansas City. Austin F.C. Look, I know you don’t need clues because this episode is clearly about Austin and based on “Austin FC” in bold above, but just leave it to me, okay?
Austin is swinging at -0.54 xGD per 90 minutes, meaning they allow more than half of the goals they create. Each. Single. Game.
One of the only reasons they’re still there technically They’re alive in the playoff race, and the only reason they’re in a better spot than the Quakes and SKC in this ranking is because Brad Stuver is stopping shots. This year has been brutal for Austin, with the exception of Stuver, who has saved nearly a quarter of his expected saves per 90 points, according to FBref’s data. Just ask star Sebastián Driussi.
With sporting director Rodolfo Borrell about to enter his second season, there is no shortage of big decisions to be made. Austin FC need a talented striker, they need a playmaker in midfield and their backbone is one of the weakest in MLS. There’s also Josh Wolff’s job, which fans have been demanding. The to-do list is long. Time is short. Few front office members are required to make as many high-profile calls this summer as Borrell.
Too little, too late
23) FC Dallas
22) City of St. Louis
21) Toronto FC
20)Atlanta United
19) DC United
18) CF Montreal
St. Louis City’s fall from grace was swift, if not so graceful. While they were the best team in the West last year, this year they were one of the first teams to be eliminated from the post-season competition.
What caused the decline?
St. Louis suffered some very, very lucky bounces during the expansion season that, unsurprisingly, were not repeated in 2024. While Roman Bürki will be an elite goal scorer in 2023, he has settled for just being perfect this year. Their high pressing style may have surprised some teams, but that’s where the book is out.
Relating to: What’s remarkable about Messi’s Miami? They’re just as good without him
But the simplest explanation for St. Louis City’s fall in the standings is this: They huffed when it came time to retool during the offseason. When Nicholas Gioacchini and Jared Stroud left the club, he was left with 21 goal contributions. St Louis never replaced either player in the winter. It’s no wonder they’re struggling.
The good news is that a simple explanation for their decline leads to an equally simple way to trigger a potential rise in 2025. Find more talent. Indeed, sporting director Lutz Pfannenstiel has already done a good job in this regard. St Louis City were one of the most active teams in MLS during the summer transfer window, eventually adding St Pauli’s Marcel Hartel and Hannover’s Cedric Teuchert to strengthen their attack. Teuchert in particular was excellent. According to FBref, he ranks in the 88th percentile among his MLS counterparts in non-penalty expected goals plus expected assisted goals per 90 minutes.
St Louis, who have stepped up their ground with long-overdue substitutions, have recorded three wins, two draws and two defeats since the summer window closed in August. The lack of a true superstar limits their progress heading into 2025, but there’s reason to believe this roster will move up a notch or two come March.
We’re playing the blame game
17) Philadelphia Union
16) Portland Lumbers
15) New York Red Bulls
14)Charlotte FC
13) Colorado Rapids
12) Minnesota United
New York Red Bulls fans have been dealt blow after blow over the past week. Of course, they dispatched a bad Toronto FC team on Wednesday night. But before that, they watched their team disastrously lose the Hudson River Derby on Saturday. They then had to sit back and watch Red Bull’s senior executive, Oliver Mintzlaff, comment from his interview with Kicker. According to a translation by well-known Bundesliga broadcaster Derek Rae, Mintzlaff said about MLS (and by extension his own team): “MLS is improving, but it is developing very slowly and is still far from the standards we could dream of. “A country like the USA.”
Mintzlaff’s point that MLS has a lot of room to grow is spot on. MLS needs more talent if it really wants to gain enough traction to become one of the best leagues in the world. But how appropriate is it that this criticism comes from Mintzlaff, who sits on MLS’s all-powerful sports and competition committee and is affiliated with a club that has failed to fill all three Designated Player slots this year? There is so much in everything We’re all trying to find the man who did this energy.
New York is the largest media market in the United States. The New York Red Bulls are one of three founding MLS teams that did not win the MLS Cup. They haven’t won a play-off game since 2018. Since the same year, they have not finished higher than fourth place in the East.
If Mintzlaff wants change, even if it’s to help Red Bull’s New York branch develop better players for its Leipzig branch, he might want to look inside the dugout first.
Should we believe Orlando?
11) Vancouver White Caps
10) Houston Dynamo
9) City of Orlando
8) New York City FC
7) Real Salt Lake
6) Seattle Sirens
I would be lying if I said I was confident Orlando City would be this high in the rankings.
Of course, they are in fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Of course, they won 10 of the last 14 games. But do you know? They’ve beaten only two teams above the play-off bracket all season: Toronto FC, placed ninth in the East, and Charlotte FC, placed seventh in the East. So forgive me for being skeptical when it comes to Óscar Pareja’s team. It’s a very real world where Orlando faces a talented team in the first round of the playoffs and is recovering from two quick losses in a three-game series.
However, the reason they are in the top 10 in this ranking is because Orlando City has an inherently good side. It cannot be said that they play comprehensive, aesthetic football; they don’t play. They don’t create many chances in the final third, they don’t. No, the beauty of this suit is their flexibility.
Pareja wants this team to be like a tactical chameleon; Here they will be able to handle the ball, work on their playmakers who can attack properly against weaker teams and play on the ball and shoot the ball offensively against stronger teams. For example, Orlando had 53% possession against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Last month against Columbus? They had only 41% of the ball. Orlando City will change and change depending on the situation, and it’s great to watch them transition from one aspect of their identity to another.
Will being average-good at two things instead of being excellent at one be enough to make the postseason? We will find out soon.
Supporters’ Shield winners
5) FC Cincinnati
4) LAFC
3) LA Galaxy
2) Columbus Crew
1) At Inter Miami
The first goal came from Lionel Messi, who put on a brace before the half-time whistle blew. Luis Suárez then delivered the killing blow to Team Columbus a few minutes before halftime.
On Wednesday night, Inter Miami completed their regular-season sweep with Wilfried Nancy’s side, taking top spot in the Eastern Conference and clinching the Supporters’ Shield as the best regular-season team in MLS this year. If they win their last two games, the all-time MLS points record will also belong to Miami.
While Messi, Suárez and other Barcelona players highlighted Miami’s important victory (and highlighted in pink this unique season for the team), Inter Miami’s success in the regular season would not have been possible without a number of key role players. Against the Crew, goalkeeper Drake Callender stepped up and saved Cucho Hernandez’s potentially game-tying penalty in the 84th minute.
Without Callender’s ability to save defensively bound teammates, Inter Miami’s capture of the Shield would not have been possible. The same goes for Julian Gressel’s energetic play on the right wing. Or for Ian Fray to re-emerge at centre-back. Or for the 1,300 productive minutes rookie Yannick Bright spent at the base of midfield.
Inter Miami’s 2024 season will be remembered for its star power, as it should be. We’ve never seen an MLS team with such big names before. It is quite possible, perhaps even probable, that we will never see a player of Messi’s caliber in MLS again. They made history. But this history would not have been possible without players like Callender providing the platform for their famous teammates to succeed.
Break the points record and start the play-offs.