SCOTLAND’S climate is changing faster than expected, new research suggests.
The research, carried out by the James Hutton Institute in Aberdeen, says average temperatures for February have already reached some predictions for 2050.
Temperatures in certain parts of Scotland rose by 2.5°C in February, researchers say, rising from an average of 16.9°C in the 1960-1989 period to 19.4°C in the three decades between 1990-2019.
It is stated that the increase in winter precipitation exceeds the 2050 predictions.
The James Hutton Institute conducted the research on behalf of the Scottish Government.
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The researchers also warned that water scarcity will increase in the near future, which could threaten agriculture, forestry and animal habitats and hinder the country’s peatland restoration efforts.
The UK, including Scotland, faced the hottest June on record, while July was also recorded as the hottest month in the world.
Daily global sea surface temperature also broke a record at the beginning of August.
Dr Peters, who leads Scottish research on climate change and extreme trends at the institute. Mike Rivington said: “We are currently in the midst of climate collapse: our ecosystems that regulate climate and enable food production are being degraded and at risk of collapse, while we continue to increase greenhouse gas emissions, further fueling warming.
“There has never been a more important time to understand the extent of the threat and how quickly we need to act.
“The global acceleration of climate change and biodiversity loss could push us beyond major turning points that, if exceeded, would be irreversible.
“The fact that we have already experienced some of the predicted changes in Scotland’s climate suggests that climate change is happening more rapidly.
“This will have global impacts, affecting trade and undermining the stability of economies, while reducing our capacity to adapt to the food we grow and the water, energy and nature-based services we receive from today’s ecosystems.”
Mairi McAllan (above), cabinet secretary for transport, net zero and just transition, added: “These findings underscore that the climate emergency is not a distant threat; This threat is with us today.
“Storms have ravaged Scotland in recent months and 2023 will be the hottest year on record.
“The impacts of climate change are affecting families, communities and businesses across Scotland.
That’s why we’re taking action to make Scotland more resilient in the face of a changing climate.”
The research was presented to the Scottish Government in two separate reports, Climate Trends and Future Projections in Scotland and Climate Extremes in Scotland.
The reports not only examine past trends but also look at what Scotland can expect in the future and are based on 12 climate projections up to 2080.
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The number of consecutive dry days is also expected to increase in drier months, including September.
Dr Rivington said: “Our climate is changing and this has many consequences.
“It will increase pressure on species, habitats and how well ecosystems work.
“Unless healthy ecosystems are fully functioning, agriculture and other ways that nature supports society and the economy are disrupted.
“Threats include water scarcity, which reduces agricultural productivity, and the risk of depleting water resources during the year.
“Less and warmer water in streams impacts river health and water quality due to higher pollution concentrations, but also increases the potential for increased flooding in winter due to increased precipitation.”
He added: “Forewarned is forearmed, and analysis is extremely valuable if acted upon.
“Adaptation plans need to take into account the complexity of floods and droughts in the same year and even the same season, but we can make adjustments to better manage these risks.
“For example, we can collect and store much of the excess precipitation in the winter months for use in the summer; This is true not only in terms of engineering and reservoirs, but also in terms of land management in our watersheds.
“Farms can increase soil organic matter so they can store more water for dry periods. We can also use the information to plan better and provide better oversight, for example to raise greater awareness of bushfire risk and adjust seasonal management guidance at Muirburn.”
McAllan added: “In January we will publish a draft of our ambitious National Adaptation Plan to address the climate risks facing Scotland.
“We are making Scotland more flood resilient, providing £150 million of extra funding on top of our £42 million annual fund for managing flood risk during this Parliament, and advising on a new Flood Resilience Strategy in the new year.”