Football clubs have only one response when results go wrong. Sometimes it is an act of cruelty, sometimes of relief, sometimes of a sense of duty as someone taking a faithful Labrador to the vet for the last time, but there is always a sense of obligation. “I’m sorry Nigel/Antonio/Steve but there’s no other way.” But the outcome is inevitably the same: no matter what goes wrong at the club, no matter how good a job has been done before, it is the manager who takes the blame.
This is the nature of the modern game. Managers may almost be given time to get over a hole, but no one can see the other side of the sinkhole. This should concern Eddie Howe. Newcastle are in a bad place at the moment; They have lost eight of their last 12 games, including defeats to Luton and Nottingham Forest at Christmas. They are out of the Champions League and Carabao Cup, and although Champions League qualification is not out of range either, a small gap is starting to widen. And January looks tough.
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In the Premier League, Newcastle will face Liverpool at Anfield on Monday, then host Manchester City and travel to Aston Villa. Between the first two Premier League matches of the year, they will face perhaps the worst FA Cup draw imaginable, away to Sunderland.
This is a game with little advantage for Newcastle, but a first victory over their local rivals since 2011 would be welcome. Even if they win comfortably, that’s exactly what a Saudi-backed club should do against lower league opponents. Losing is a game that will be talked about for years. The risk is not just a Cup exit (in some ways an early exit could be advantageous to allow them to focus on qualifying for the Champions League), but also a resounding embarrassment.
Managers will almost certainly prioritize the league: that’s where the money is and it is through Champions League qualification that the club can build its reputation and attract top-level transfers. The fans can probably understand this, but losing to Sunderland is unacceptable. Any resting of players carries a huge risk of weakening the side; but this also does not weaken the side.
The temptation for Newcastle is always to compare their progress under the Saudi Public Investment Fund with Manchester City’s progress under Sheikh Mansour. Mark Hughes was appointed City manager in June 2008, three months before the takeover. It held out for 18 months, although there was always a sense that it was patiently there. City finished 10th in his first season in charge but were sixth when he was sacked after a 4–3 win over Sunderland in December 2009.
Just that morning there was news that his job was under threat and there was some unease among fans due to the unexpected nature of the decision. In retrospect, the 3-0 defeat against Tottenham had been weakened by a series of draws that followed, and Roberto Mancini’s ease of induction meant that reservations about Hughes’ treatment were soon forgotten.
The situations are hardly comparable. The city was exempt from any regulations on spending and was starting from a higher base. With Hughes sacked, they would be able to field a team that included Pablo Zabaleta, Vincent Kompany, Nigel de Jong, Gareth Barry, Emmanuel Adebayor and Carlos Tevez. The squad was both stronger and deeper than Newcastle’s; This highlights what an outstanding job Howe did to lead his side to the Champions League last season; perhaps a success for which he is now paying the price.
Imagine if Newcastle finished eighth last season and failed to compete in the Champions League; A less tired squad (albeit one without Harvey Barnes and Sandro Tonali, who have not played a huge part this season for different reasons) could make Newcastle look fair for Europa League qualification.
That would be nice, and most people in Newcastle are probably aware of that. Although there was some booing following Forest’s defeat, there is no serious fan discontent towards Howe. But that wasn’t the case with Hughes. Given the schedule, not much needs to go wrong for Newcastle to fail to pick up a league win in January. If that happens, especially if Newcastle exit the Cup, it will be difficult for even the most realistic fans not to see this season as a step back. Maybe it’s a necessary consolidation step, but will the Saudis look at things that way? Sporting director Dan Ashworth may be a voice of restraint, but it’s hard to believe conversations about a possible future wouldn’t take place without Howe.
Fatigue and injuries may be a plausible excuse for Newcastle, but is it really worse than Tottenham, Manchester United, Chelsea, Brentford or Brighton? And there are broader concerns. Newcastle have only taken one point from a losing position this season, a 2-2 draw against West Ham in which they scored their first goal. Meanwhile, losing the lead has become a habit: against Paris Saint-Germain and Milan in the Champions League, but also against Liverpool, West Ham, Wolves (twice), Chelsea in the Carabao Cup and Nottingham Forest after Christmas. opposite.
This could simply be a result of fatigue, but these problems tend to happen on their own. Come from behind often enough and you begin to believe that comebacks are a natural part of the club’s character; If you lose enough clues, the same sense of fatalism can be felt on the other side. Encouraging such patterns when they are positive or breaking them when they are negative is part of the manager’s armamentarium.
Will How manage to disrupt this order? Can he find a way to play that doesn’t put too much physical strain on already tired players? Can it revive flagging faith? If he fails, if the slide continues, he may find himself like Hughes, the often-forgotten prelude to a more dramatic story to come.