They were strange years, 2020 and 2021. It was as if the world had stopped turning, the journey had stopped. Overnight we forgot about our overtourism concerns and were more worried about canceling our trips and getting refunds. The numbers are staggering. The World Tourism Organization says the number of international travelers, which peaked at 1.46 billion in 2019, fell to 406 million in 2020 and barely rose to 459 million in 2021.
It took another two years for the industry to recover from the shock (frankly airports and air traffic control systems still seem to be having problems) and for many people to feel confident enough to start booking again. But all signs point to the recovery being nearly complete this year. WTO figures show the number of international travelers reaching nearly 1 billion in 2022, and we appear to be once again approaching the level we saw in 2019. So it’s looking increasingly likely that 2024 will be the world’s biggest year for travel. ever knew.
In some places, this breakthrough is already happening. WTO recently published data for the first six months of this year on the 10 countries that contribute the most to world tourism, in other words, whose population travels abroad the most. It shows that the number of international passengers departing from Germany, Italy, the USA and the UK increased by more than ten percent compared to the same period in the year before the pandemic. The British seem to be the most resilient and determined at the moment; It has grown by 16 percent since 2019.
The increasing trend is also reflected in the latest figures of IAG, the owner of British Airways. When we compare the first three months of this year with the same period last year, we see an increase of 69 percent. “Customer demand currently remains strong across all of IAG’s airlines and in all regions, particularly for leisure customers,” he commented.
Meanwhile, Ryanair, which operates flights between many European countries, recorded a 15 percent increase in passenger numbers in the first ten months of this year compared to the first ten months of 2022. EasyJet also recently predicted that its overall capacity will rise to approximately 97 percent of 2019 levels in 2023. This is similar to leading tour operator TUI’s report this summer of bookings reaching around 96 per cent of pre-pandemic numbers.
What’s causing the overall breakdown is that some key markets are still a long way off the 2019 target. While the Chinese remained down 29 per cent, Koreans (-19 per cent) and, perhaps surprisingly, Australians (-26 per cent) were slow to resume international travel. However, these figures are likely to improve already as the key months of July-October 2023 have not yet been compiled.
In short, as the new year approaches, it is obvious that we are partying like it’s 2019 again and our excitement will increase even more next year. Our hunger to seek guaranteed sunshine, see new places, interact with unfamiliar cultures and try new experiences has never been greater. And this is despite extreme price increases, the near-recession throughout Europe, the war in Ukraine and Gaza, and all the uncertainties caused by climate change.
But surely there are limits to how big travel can get and whether we want it? There are clearly environmental concerns, and certainly some destinations are reaching the sort of saturation point that was becoming an issue before the pandemic. Venice is one of the best examples of this. This year, the city had an average of twice as many daily visitors as the 50,000 visitors Ca’ Foscari University calculated as manageable in 2018. Whether the 5 Euro fee offered for day trippers starting next spring will be enough to solve this problem is another question. And now there are more tourist beds available to those who want to stay than there are people living in the city.
But Venice aside, the current key to whether world tourism will continue to grow is not the amount of accommodation available. Generally speaking, there are enough hotels, apartments, villas, Air BNBs and holiday homes to meet growing demand in the short term. Even in cases where consensus is tight, we appear to be undeterred and willing to be more flexible in our plans to tackle the problem. Nick Longman, chief executive of Audley Travel, which specializes in personalized long-distance itineraries, told me last week that more and more of his clients are inclined to book off-season or mid-season when there is pressure on availability during peak season. in its place.
What really makes the difference in expanding travel potential is the availability of airline seats. And all signs point to significant growth next year when it comes to UK and European airlines. Many had already announced expanded programs for 2024, and many have recently added to it.
Last week, Jet2.com and Jet2holidays CEO Steve Heapy said it was already expanding its 2024 summer schedule by adding 70,000 extra seats to destinations in Mainland Spain, the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands, Portugal, Turkey, Croatia and Greece. from eight airports in the UK. This was triggered by seeing “strong and sustained demand” for summer ’24, with the late summer season proving particularly popular. A week ago easyJet announced 12 new routes from eight UK airports to serve its 2024 summer programme.
The only remaining issue seems to be whether airlines will have enough planes to meet demand. Ryanair announced in September that it was experiencing delays in the delivery of some of the 57 new aircraft it ordered from Boeing, but still hoped to resolve the problem in time for the busy summer schedule in 2024.
So, for better or worse, it looks like more of the world will be traveling to more places next year than ever before.