We’re only a week away from 2024, but this year is already proving to be a tumultuous year for nervous flyers; Two high-profile incidents raise questions about the safety of flying.
On January 2, a Japan Airlines plane collided with a coast guard plane at Tokyo’s Haneda Airport, igniting a runway inferno that led to the destruction of both planes. Five of the six crew members on board the small aircraft died, but after a successful evacuation effort, all 367 passengers and 12 crew on board the A350 survived.
Days later, on January 7, a refrigerator-sized hole opened up on an Alaska Airlines passenger plane during flight. Phones and magazines (and even a child’s shirt off his back) were pulled from the depressurized plane, and the plane made an emergency landing shortly afterwards. More than 170 Boeing 737 Max 9 jets have since been grounded while the manufacturer investigates the cause of the problem; The Civil Aviation Authority has requested that all aircraft be inspected before they are allowed into UK airspace.
These scenes are a nightmare even for confident flyers. So is what happened last week something to worry about?
Flying is safer than ever
The short answer to the above question: No. Despite last week’s events, commercial aviation has never been safer. There were only two fatal crashes on commercial airliners in 2023, making it the safest year in history. The crashes in Nepal and Brazil each involved propeller planes on domestic flights, killing a total of 86 people.
But not a single international flight or passenger jet was involved in a fatal crash last year. For comparison, according to UN figures, an average of 148 people die per hour in traffic accidents.
Looking at data from the last century recorded by the Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives, the total annual number of air disasters (including non-commercial aircraft) has decreased significantly in recent years. Last year, there were 82 accidents in total, including private and cargo flights, while 50 years ago, when flights were much fewer, this figure was 372 accidents.
So what are the chances of being involved in an accident? UN data for the last decade shows an accident rate of 3.47 per million departures (from 2013 to 2022): 46.8 million commercial departures worldwide in 2019 (the last fully normal year for aviation before the pandemic). The flight was planned, with 114 accidents, 6 fatal accidents and 239 deaths.
But the turbulence is getting worse
Safer skies don’t always mean a smoother ride. Severe turbulence has increased by 55 percent in the past 50 years due to a more erratic jet stream that causes clashes of winds moving at different speeds, a phenomenon caused by climate change.
Satellite data shows that severe turbulence at any point in the North Atlantic has increased from a cumulative average of 17.7 hours per year to 27.4 hours, according to the University of Reading.
Dr. D., professor of atmospheric science in Reading’s department of meteorology. “It may not seem like much, but this is severe turbulence that will knock you out of your seat if you’re not wearing a seat belt,” Paul Williams said.
“This is just the beginning. We expect the situation to be much worse than this, and unless we reduce emissions we will see two or three times more turbulence.”
Near miss cases are increasing
The United States hasn’t had a major aviation disaster in more than 10 years, but a recent New York Times investigation found that potentially dangerous encounters are occurring more frequently.
The report came after a private jet came within 100 feet of a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 jet that was taxiing at the San Diego airport. Early last year, a Southwest Airlines pilot aborted a landing at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International Airport because a Delta Air Lines plane was approaching takeoff from the same runway.
These are just two examples of what the Federal Aviation Administration describes as “skin-to-skin” incidents, according to records obtained by The New York Times. During the 12-month period analyzed, there were approximately 300 near-accidents involving commercial airlines.
The runway is more dangerous than the sky
While aviation accidents in the air have decreased, a study by U.S. transportation officials found that runway incursions have increased over time.
“We are seeing a disturbing number of runway incursions around the world, with aircraft entering the runway while it is occupied or another aircraft entering the runway while it is close to landing,” senior aviation consultant Adrian Young wrote in a recent aviation blog. consulting7o.
There are also runway excursions, such as when a Tui plane “went off the runway” in high winds and rain at Leeds-Bradford airport. All passengers got off the plane unharmed, but other incidents, such as the 2020 Pegasus Airlines plane overshooting the runway at Istanbul-Sabiha Gökçen International Airport in bad weather conditions, resulted in fatalities. Three passengers were killed. These runway excursions are “the most common type of accident,” according to the International Air Transport Association.
Britain banned airlines from these 25 countries
Despite the increased safety of air travel, the UK Government publishes a UK Air Safety List highlighting countries and airlines that cannot operate within or outside UK airspace. This is separate from State Department advice on which countries are safe to visit.
The bulk of the list consists of countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, including Pakistan, Iran, Armenia and the Russian Federation. The Secretary of State for Transport updates the list every three months, based on advice from the Civil Aviation Authority and the UK Air Safety Committee.