The Six Nations championship is supposed to be a marathon, not a sprint. However, after an opening weekend that already has a title favorite emerging, that’s not the case right now. If this were the Cheltenham Gold Cup, many would already be putting down their binoculars and preparing to call home a classic Irish winner while the rest of the field is still out of the country.
Nothing can be completely certain about the sport’s whirling fortunes, but no one in Rome or Cardiff will be rushing to back any of the would-be rivals to Andy Farrell’s pro-active team. France were well off the pace in the first half in Marseille and the other two contests showed little to suggest that the remaining four nations were yet at the required level. Whichever way you swing it, it now looks distinctly like the Irish year.
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The danger of playing the biggest match of the tournament on the opening night was also underlined. There is no “conference” system to guarantee a flashy endgame; Ireland’s three home games against Italy, Wales and Scotland in Dublin (where they lose as often as it snows in Riyadh) and a trip to Twickenham to face an England team in rebuilding mode. Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen.
So the pressure is on Saturday’s winners, England and Scotland, to make a big move and prevent a completely predictable one-horse race. Having won the first round by three and one point respectively, the home games of both of them this Saturday will either provide real momentum or put them back to square one. If England lose to Warren Gatland’s Wales team, especially at Twickenham, Rome’s quiet sense of satisfaction will suddenly vanish.
It looks possible that the visitors will be further strengthened by the return of several senior players such as George North and Will Rowlands; Leicester winger Tommy Reffell is a real menace every time he plays and Aaron Wainwright had an eye-catching game against the Scots. . In addition, the hyper-aggressive new English defensive system introduced by former Springbok assistant coach Felix Jones continues to be worked on, as Italy discovered in the first half.
The theory is totally fine. Run forward in a blurry white and the time and space available for ball carriers attacking the gain line is minimized. However, there may be extreme enthusiasm in the England squad due to unusual combinations and new faces. Italy scored three points to England’s two tries, several of which were scored more easily than Steve Borthwick’s team would have liked. “We made mistakes a few times, didn’t we?” admitted fly-half George Ford. “The main thing is to calm everyone down and say ‘Mistakes happen’, but we can’t make mistakes again for the rest of the game. We have to continue to stick to that.”
If there is one thing Wales will be keen to do from the start after their thrilling comeback against the Scots, it is to step up the tempo and move the ball quickly, which could make for a fascinating duel. England also want to be more positive, but as the match against Italy gets stronger, they will not be able to stay in the middle of too many teams with their current squad. This means either designing more voluminous alternatives at No 8 and the centre, or finding alternative, more creative ways to position and use the space.
From the latter perspective, despite Ethan Roots’ man of the match award, one of England’s key players is now Tommy Freeman; He’s exactly the kind of athletic, roving talent who can transform a team’s offensive options. If Borthwick’s side really want to be successful this year, they need to get the ball into the Northampton winger’s hands more often and also look a bit more at one or two ball carriers. Roots and the promising Chandler Cunningham-South enjoyed encouraging Test debuts, while Northampton’s Tom Pearson was another lively, galloping presence who also deserved a run at some stage.
But all this is absolutely relative. If an 80-minute tour de force cannot complete a season, the bad news for Ireland’s rivals is that World Cup disappointments appear to have further strengthened Farrell’s green machine. They also have a huge new totem in the marauding presence of second-row Joe McCarthy, who already looks nailed on touring with the British and Irish Lions in Australia next year.
Sometimes all it takes is one or two players to step in or step up to give the team a new burst of energy. Ireland needed a new name to get excited after Johnny Sexton’s retirement and ‘Big Joe’, along with the always excellent Tadhg Beirne, visibly galvanized the rest of the Ireland squad. The French, by contrast, exuded all the joie de vivre of dutiful partners going on a long shopping trip with their spouses.
Head into Edinburgh next weekend in a similarly pessimistic mood and Scotland will love to make them pay for it, too. And if England and Scots reach the third round unbeaten, the Calcutta Cup clashes at Murrayfield will be more intense than ever. Barring a truly spectacular stumble, this is a cup Ireland will lose.