Airbnb is under fire around the world and in Australia from housing advocates who accuse the short-term rental platform of increasing rents and limiting availability for people seeking long-term rentals.
In its defense, the platform released a report that found unhosted short-term rental accommodation (STRA) had “no consistent impact” on housing affordability, accounting for only 1% to 2% of housing in each state in June 2022. more than 100,000 properties in total. (If the host is not present at the time of stay, the rental is “unhosted,” which usually means the entire property is listed.)
But depending on the state, 1% to 2% of all housing accounts for around 3% to 7% of rental properties, according to Guardian analysis. And the figure of 100,000 homes is close to the housing shortage the government expects over the next few years as construction fails to keep up with demand.
So what does the data say about Airbnb’s impact on long-term rental availability?
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How much housing stock is available for short-term rentals?
Head of the Department of Urbanism at the University of Sydney, Prof. “In a good year, we would be lucky if we could produce 2% of the housing stock with new supply,” says Nicole Gurran.
“And when you compare that to rental vacancy rates, which are currently under 2%, that’s a pretty significant amount.” The vacancy rate fell to a record low of 1.09% in January.
The share of rental housing in Australia has been relatively stable nationally over time. Nearly 3 million properties (30.6% of occupied private housing) were occupied by tenants in the 2021 census. This is almost the same as the share in 2016 (30.9%) and slightly higher than in 2011 (29.6%).
Airbnb declined to share its data on short-term rentals by location, so we estimated the number using Airbnb reporting and housing in the 2021 census.
Our estimates produced figures roughly similar to those in a report published by the Real Estate Institute of Australia last year. The institute also found that more than 80% of properties listed for short-term stay were for entire residences; This makes them generally comparable to those in the long-term rental market.
How many short-term rentals can become long-term?
A 2022 study found that most short-term rentals in Tasmania used to be long-term rentals, but not all Airbnbs will convert to residential or rental stock, as most Airbnbs were previously holiday homes and may be so again.
The New South Wales government estimates there are 100,000 properties unused for long-term housing in the state, including 45,000 holiday homes and 33,000 registered, unhoused short-term rental homes.
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The share of all residences listed for short-term rental in NSW was 1.8% of all residences in June 2022, according to the Airbnb report. This accounts for almost 6% of housing rentals in NSW in the 2021 census. This share accounts for approximately 1.6% of all housing in Victoria, but also almost 6% of rental housing.
But Gurran warns that housing share of the short-term rental market is not the only factor affecting housing.
“Most housing experts will read that these figures represent a not insignificant proportion of the housing stock. But of course that doesn’t mean it’s the only factor affecting the housing market,” says Gurran.
“It also doesn’t mean that all of this housing will be permanently available as rental stock. [prior to platforms like Airbnb]. We can’t go that far. But it’s certainly not unimportant.”
Are the numbers reliable?
Sean Brosnan of Urbis, one of the authors of the Airbnb report, said Airbnb stock cannot be accurately calculated as a percentage of total rental stock.
The Airbnb report calculated the share of short-term rental properties using the ABS housing forecast by local authority area in June 2022. This data set is census based and is updated regularly to reflect construction and demolition.
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The most similar and comprehensive data on rental properties comes from the 2021 census, but it has some drawbacks, according to the report’s authors. There is a lag between the date the census is completed and the date the total number of short-term rentals is calculated. The census also represents only one point in time: census night in August 2021 (which was also affected by the pandemic and border closures). And because the census must be completed by residents who have not identified the property as a rental, it may not accurately capture all short-term rental properties.
“By contrast, the total housing stock is accurately recorded by the ABS at LGA level, with housing numbers changing only as a result of construction or demolition (whereas rental housing numbers are much more variable and can change more rapidly over time due to the whims of owners),” says Brosnan.
“As a result, our analysis did not focus on unhoused STRA as a proportion of total rental stock as there is no way to accurately estimate the total rental stock (consisting of both long-term rentals and STRA) in a local government area (LGA) across Australia .level.
“I cannot comment on whether considering unhosted STRA as a percentage of total rental stock would affect the findings as we did not conduct this analysis,” Brosnan said.