DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As the Middle East hosts its second consecutive U.N. climate conference in the next two weeks, countries hope to agree on new ways to prevent the planet from overheating by the end of the century. Distractions abound, most notably the war between Israel and Hamas.
Dubai in the United Arab Emirates will host thousands of participants at the 28th “Conference of the Parties” to the UN climate conference from Thursday until December 12, amid ongoing doubts about how far the oil-rich country can go to help end climate change. The crisis is largely caused by the use of fossil fuels.
Here’s a look at the background, risks and challenges ahead for COP28.
WHAT HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST EVENT
The world has gotten warmer since the conference held in Egypt last year. Some experts say 2023 is the hottest year ever recorded. Record levels were experienced in the northern hemisphere this summer, and in Brazil, where summer has not yet arrived, the highest temperature and humidity of all time were seen this month.
“Almost the entire world is experiencing heat waves,” Petteri Taalas, head of the UN weather agency, said earlier this month.
There are growing signs that the world, especially developing countries, is increasingly ill-prepared: In India, this year’s monsoon season caused nearly $1.5 billion in property damage. Tropical Storm Daniel in September caused deadly floods in Libya. Hurricane Otis hit Mexico last month, raising fears that the government will spend more money on rebuilding rather than helping people cope.
Even if a return of extreme cold arrives, as is currently the case in Northern Europe, overall trend lines point to rising average global temperatures.
WHAT IS THIS POLICE’S SHARE?
Few experts and policymakers expect a major breakthrough this year.
The burning of fossil fuels, which sends carbon into the atmosphere, remains the main cause of global warming, and production continues to increase. Climate campaigners say efforts to develop wind, solar and other alternative energies are not moving fast enough.
The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement set a goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since the dawn of the industrial age, and the world is falling short so far.
To reach that goal, many experts say, atmospheric carbon production must peak next year and fall by nearly half by 2030.
Western countries are among those supporting the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by that year. Advocacy groups say this is about trimming around the edges and avoiding the real problem: reducing the burning of coal, oil and gas.
One debate will be about “phasing out” or “phasing out”: Whether countries agree to phase out their use of fossil fuels, as some want, or eliminate them altogether – a major goal that climate campaigners say is unlikely to be seriously considered in this Gulf nation . .
Global warming has huge consequences: It can disrupt local economies, worsen weather conditions, push people to migrate, and cause damage to Indigenous peoples who want to preserve their traditional cultures, among many other effects.
Another challenge in Dubai will be to raise funds for poor countries to prepare, respond and cope with climate-related disasters. Creating a “loss and damage fund” was a huge accomplishment last year, but figuring out how to fill it has been a challenge.
WHO IS COMING?
King Charles joined Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US climate czar John Kerry and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at what organizers said was the largest COP ever. Pope Francis had planned to attend but canceled on doctor’s orders as his respiratory problems improved.
Sultan al-Jaber, the head of the Abu Dhabi national oil company who chairs COP28, will be scrutinized for his country’s apparent interest in oil and calls for a transition to renewable energy. Many people want to know whether the oil-rich Gulf countries will raise more money to help developing countries adapt to climate change and switch to greener technologies.
Governments of developing countries are asking for help to combat the effects of warming, which hit them particularly hard and was due to little or no fault of their own.
In an increasingly polarized world, rich world countries will try to score political points in the global community by providing aid or sharing know-how from their economic engines to countries in need, not forgetting their voters at home.
Climate campaigners want to hold decision-makers in the wealthy nation to account for big but unfulfilled promises they have made in the past and are pushing for bigger ambitions to change the way we live, from Tokyo to Tegucigalpa to Timbuktu.
WHAT CHALLENGES ARE AWAITING?
At every COP, hopes become reality.
As last year, when Russia’s war in Ukraine loomed large against the backdrop of efforts to combat climate change, many eyes this year are elsewhere in the Middle East, on Israel’s military action in Gaza following last month’s devastating Hamas offensive in Israel.
One challenge will be to reignite interest in climate issues that often fades away after heatwaves subside.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently traveled to Antarctica to highlight concerns about melting ice. Many companies are welcoming COP28: US agricultural company Cargill, for example, this week announced an “accelerated commitment” to end deforestation in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay – which critics said was not being done enough.
Developing countries want to take advantage of the luxuries that the rich world has long enjoyed, often by emitting large amounts of carbon. As electric vehicles gain more mileage, the purchase of gas-guzzling SUVs and larger cars is increasing worldwide.
Inflationary pressures that have increased the cost of living in recent months have made purchasing cleaner (often more expensive) technologies less attractive, and many consumers have demanded lower gasoline prices. Many countries continue to subsidize fuel costs to limit the strain on wallets.
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