February is on track to break record heat records as man-made global warming and the natural El Niño climate pattern increase temperatures on land and oceans around the world, meteorologists say.
Halfway through the shortest month of the year, the warming has become so pronounced that climate charts are entering new territory, especially for sea surface temperatures that are continuing and accelerating to the point that expert observers are struggling to explain how this warming is happening. change is happening.
“The planet is warming at an accelerating rate. We are seeing rapid temperature increases in the ocean, the climate’s largest heat sink,” said Dr. Joel Hirschi, deputy head of marine systems modeling at the UK’s National Oceanography Centre. “Previous sea surface temperature records were set in 2023 and now in 2024.” “The magnitude at which it breaks exceeds expectations, but understanding why is the subject of ongoing research.”
According to a Berkeley Earth scientist, humanity is on track to experience the hottest February in recorded history, following record January, December, November, October, September, August, July, June and May. Zeke Haus’ father.
He said the increase in recent weeks is on track for a warming of 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels; But this would be the brief peak impact of El Niño if it follows the path of previous years and begins to cool in the coming months.
That would normally be good news if La Niña arrives as temperatures drop, but Hausfather said the behavior of the climate is becoming more variable and harder to predict. “[Last year] “It has blown away expectations so much that it’s hard to have as much confidence in the approaches we’ve used to make these predictions in the past,” he said. “I would say February 2024 is an odds-on favorite to beat the previous record set in 2016, but that’s certainly not a foregone conclusion at this point due to weather patterns. recommend it Global temperatures will drop again next week. Although I think these extreme temperatures provide some evidence of an increase in the rate of warming in recent years (as climate models expect to happen in the case of CO2)2 emissions are not falling, but aerosols are; “This situation is not necessarily worse than we thought.”
The first half of February shocked weather watchers. Blog by Maximiliano Herrera Extreme Temperatures Around the World, called the increase in heat records from thousands of weather stations “crazy,” “utter madness” and “a rewriting of climate history.” What amazed him was not just the number of records, but the degree to which many of them exceeded previous records.
He said he saw 12 weather stations in Morocco recording temperatures above 33.9 degrees; Not only was this a national record for the warmest winter day, it was also a temperature 5 degrees above the average for July. The northern Chinese city of Harbin was forced to close its winter ice festival as temperatures soared above freezing for an unprecedented three days this month.
Last week, monitoring stations as far apart as South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Colombia, Japan, North Korea, the Maldives and Belize recorded monthly temperature records.
Herrera said 140 countries broke monthly temperature records in the first half of this month; This figure is similar to the final figures for the last six warmest months of 2023 and more than three times in any month before 2023.
The temperature of the ocean surface continues to surprise experienced observers and increases the likelihood of severe storms later in the year. hurricane expert Michael Lowry He tweeted that sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic core development region, where most of the U.S. category 3 or stronger hurricanes occur, were “usually as warm in mid-February as they are in mid-July.” Unbelievable.”
Global sea surface temperatures are in “uncharted territory,” according to Hirschi, who expects March to break last August’s record by 0.1 to 0.2 degrees.. March is generally the hottest time of year for the oceans because it is the end of summer in the southern hemisphere, home to many of the world’s largest seas.
Temperature increases were expected, but their magnitude came as a surprise. Climate scientists are now investigating how weight can be attributed to the different causes behind such anomalies.
A strong El Niño pushed temperatures even higher, but that was just one of several warming factors working together, said Francesca Guglielmo, a senior Copernicus scientist. Every extra ton of carbon dioxide released by humanity increases the pressure on the oceans. Abnormal heat in some areas was also intensified by weak trade winds, a lethargic jet stream, fluctuations in the North Atlantic circulation and reductions in aerosol pollution that exposed the ocean to more sun.
The Nature Conservancy’s chief scientist, Katharine Hayhoe, said the uncertainty about the interplay of different factors is a reminder that we don’t fully understand every aspect of how the complex Earth system responds to unprecedented radiative forcing. “This is happening at a much faster rate than has been documented in the past,” she said. “In fact, we are much more likely to underestimate rather than overestimate the impact of these changes on human society.”
El Niño is now weakening, which will allow temperatures in the equatorial Pacific to decrease from late spring or early summer. Hirschi warned that if the North Atlantic remained warm during that period, it could herald intense hurricane activity.
Such risks will increase every year unless human-caused carbon emissions are reduced and deforestation is reversed. “Slowing, stopping or reversing the warming trend we’re on is like changing the course of a supertanker. The results won’t be immediate, but the sooner we act, the easier it will be to avoid getting into trouble,” he said.