By Joey Roulette
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – NASA’s decision to send Boeing’s Starliner capsule home without astronauts comes after years of missteps by the aircraft maker in its space business and casts doubt on the unit’s future, analysts and industry sources said.
Taking NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to the International Space Station (ISS) was set to be a milestone for Starliner after years of delays, technical glitches and supply chain mishaps. Starliner has cost Boeing $1.6 billion in delays since 2016, according to a Reuters analysis of securities filings.
The astronauts were scheduled to stay on the ISS for approximately eight days, but due to problems with the Starliner, this period was extended to eight months.
The Starliner’s propulsion system failed and NASA deemed the faulty thrusters unsafe for a return trip, so Wilmore and Williams will be brought home next year in a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule, Boeing’s latest humiliation at the hands of Elon Musk’s dominant space company.
The mission was to be the final test before NASA certifies Starliner for routine flights. Boeing’s new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, must now decide whether to continue investing in Starliner, which analysts doubt will be profitable, or to unwind the capsule business and focus on rebuilding the damaged reputation of its core aircraft manufacturing division.
In the space sector, U.S. government watchdogs have repeatedly reported that Boeing, the prime contractor for NASA’s giant Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, is years behind schedule and several billion dollars over budget. The SLS is the key vehicle for America’s lunar program.
The aerospace giant is trying to sell a separate rocket launch company it co-owns with Lockheed Martin, Reuters reported last month.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said he spoke with Ortberg on Saturday and left the meeting feeling 100% confident that Starliner will fly astronauts again. But that’s no guarantee of a long-term commitment if Starliner’s problems persist.
When asked whether Boeing would remain in the program after Starliner’s current mission, a Boeing spokesman declined to comment, saying the company was focused on returning the spacecraft safely.
“I’m not sure that’s ultimately going to be NASA’s decision. Boeing is going to have to foot most of the bill, as it has up until now,” said Lori Garver, a former NASA associate administrator who was a key architect of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program.
Ortberg, who took over as CEO this month, has been trying to convince Boeing employees, investors, airline customers and the flying public that safety issues are under control after a panel shot down a 737 MAX jet in midair in January.
Analysts have said Boeing will likely keep Starliner alive, in part because Boeing has had worse experiences with other programs in the defense business. In the future, Starliner could serve customers outside of NASA, such as private space stations intended to replace the ISS after 2030, but those efforts could change.
NASA’S CONNECTION
NASA sees Boeing as a vital backup to Musk’s SpaceX, the only organization other than U.S. rivals Russia and China that can put humans into orbit.
Boeing has spent more than half of the $4.5 billion NASA contract awarded in 2014, and Starliner has yet to be certified. The contract, which has been increased by $300 million despite its fixed-price structure, includes six post-certification Starliner missions that will fall further behind schedule with each setback.
SpaceX’s Crew Dragon was certified in 2020 and has flown 10 crewed missions for NASA since being awarded a contract initially worth $2.6 billion. NASA purchased more Crew Dragon missions to make up for Boeing’s delays, increasing SpaceX’s contract to $4.9 billion.
Boeing may have to repeat an astronaut mission to the ISS before its space capsule can be approved by NASA. The company had previously been forced to repeat an uncrewed mission in 2022 at a cost of around $500 million.
“I wouldn’t rule anything out. We have options on how to proceed,” NASA’s chief of space operations, Ken Bowersox, a former astronaut, told reporters Saturday when asked if Starliner could be certified without a rebuild. He did not specify the options.
It’s been five years since the first uncrewed test of Starliner failed due to several critical software bugs. Since then, SpaceX has outpaced Boeing in rocket launches, crewed spaceflights and satellite production.
NASA’s inspector general estimates the per-seat cost of the Crew Dragon mission at about $55 million, while Starliner’s is about $90 million.
DEEP PROBLEMS
Boeing’s space unit has been shedding talent for years, with many joining SpaceX and Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin. Boeing’s clumsy supply chain makes designing spacecraft more complex than Musk’s more agile, largely vertically integrated operation, according to 10 people who have worked at Boeing’s space unit.
Boeing told Reuters the company was proud of its Starliner workforce, noting that it acknowledged workforce and supply chain challenges in earnings calls.
Throughout Starliner’s development, the hardware and sometimes software of the propulsion system have had repeated problems. New problems were found just hours before the spacecraft made its first launch attempt this summer. Helium, used to pressurize the thruster, was leaking through a small seal in a flange.
NASA deemed the leak low-risk and cleared Starliner for launch, but officials said the propulsion system was a “design weakness” that Boeing needed to address before its next mission.
The Space Launch System (SLS) rocket is another problem for Boeing’s space unit. An August report by NASA’s inspector general cited deep problems in quality control and said Boeing’s SLS workforce in Michoud, Louisiana, “lacks adequate aerospace manufacturing experience, training and instruction.”
A Boeing spokesman said the company disagreed with “many of the report’s claims, including any suggestion that the Michoud workforce was unqualified.”
Unlike Starliner, NASA is footing the bill for delays and development issues related to SLS. The extent of cost overruns is unclear because NASA does not track them properly, inspector general reports have repeatedly said.
NASA is trying to transfer ownership of the SLS to Boeing and co-contractor Northrop Grumman to reduce costs, but that seems unlikely.
“Boeing’s other businesses are not as vulnerable to disruption. What about space? That’s another story,” said aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia.
Aboulafia believes Ortberg will crunch the numbers and negotiate with NASA to make Starliner viable, but he’s not convinced it’s the right move.
“If I were Kelly Ortberg’s advisor, which I’m not, I would say … in terms of space, boss, you might want to consider selling it,” Aboulafia said.
(Reporting by Joey Roulette; Editing by Joe Brock and David Gregorio)