It’s a feeling that both Arsenal and Liverpool have felt a lot at key moments over the last few seasons. Even Mikel Arteta admitted the dressing room was “sad and sad” after the 2-0 defeat against Aston Villa; This was quite different from how he usually responded to such setbacks. Part of the Spaniard’s approach is to always look ahead to prevent any doubt from creeping into his team. This led to the obvious question in a rather short press conference about whether Arsenal’s season was in danger of coming to an end.
“If one result is going to do that, then we’re not strong enough,” Arteta responded. “It’s very simple.”
This is on one level, but the real situation is much more complex than that.
It may even seem absurd to talk this way, considering the appearance of the painting. Liverpool and Arsenal are still just one point behind Manchester City. The real difference is the same as it was before this weekend, when almost everyone was talking breathlessly about a potential triple title race.
But the real problem is that this “single result” (Liverpool losing 1-0 at home to Crystal Palace) actually means much more than just one result. It’s about the last six years and what everyone knows can now happen.
Much of the excitement in this title race has been fueled by both Arsenal and Liverpool experiencing emotional swings and City suddenly left vulnerable. Arteta’s team looked strengthened by last season’s experience and had not lost a league match this calendar year. Jurgen Klopp’s farewell has galvanized Liverpool emotionally and this has inspired this relentless talent for comebacks; as if they could always handle anything. At least one of them was always ahead of City, who conceded far more goals than usual. It was as if the champions were giving everyone a chance; This was an indication that one of Liverpool or Arsenal would persistently stay ahead.
No more.
City have scored 13 goals in three games so far and that was looking worrying even before this weekend’s games. It was at this point last season that they moved up a level, from beating the opposition to destroying them.
So these double defeats feel like they came at just the wrong time. They have a dual effect, especially psychologically. So there is more at stake than any one outcome.
It’s hard not to feel that both rivals need the belief that they can actually beat City in order to stay stronger for longer; to give a different momentum. After all, that’s what it takes against this type of machine. This is what took Liverpool to 99 points in 2019-20.
Now both Liverpool and Arsenal are experiencing a similar feeling of deflation. It’s not just that they lost, it was that defeat that put City ahead of them.
This is a huge psychological change.
“We knew this moment could come,” Arteta said rather remarkably. Both Liverpool and Arsenal will see the new order of the table and will inevitably think about what has happened in the last few seasons. City are not inclined to drop points from now on.
Pep Guardiola’s team has dropped just two points for the title after 32nd match in three close races. That is one draw in 16 matches. And the only reason it wasn’t 18 was because they won the league in the 37th game last year.
Neither Arsenal nor Liverpool have a record to fall back on. they don’t To know they can do this. They hope they can do it, of course, but that’s why the psychology of it all is so important. There’s a reason why mind games are part of the championship race lingo.
This trust has now been shaken at a very important point.
These two defeats also led to something else that was potentially symbolic and impactful. Neither Arsenal nor Liverpool can get above 90 points. The most they can go is 89. This might not be relevant but it’s a small thing about the standards they are up against.
This is because the inherent knowledge of the city always has the capacity to go one step further. This is, after all, the story of the modern age.
This state project has almost industrialized by winning. Guardiola has assembled a squad that knows exactly what he wants from them. Especially at this point in the season, control is almost complete. Since taking over at Barcelona in 2008, Guardiola has insisted his side physically condition his side to reach the top flight in April. We saw this last season. We may be seeing it right now.
This reflects the double effect of the game. When competitors enter major title race matches, it’s not just the pressure of having to win to keep up. That’s the pressure of knowing City won’t give up.
This can cause teams to panic and we have certainly seen a lot of that at Arsenal and especially Liverpool in the last few hundred minutes of football.
This, of course, does not absolve them of their own failures. Liverpool shouldn’t finish like this or be so lax at the back. Arsenal were uncharacteristically poised in the second half against Aston Villa.
They can only take care of themselves for most of this.
But the potential results point to the wider context of City’s strength.
That’s why these games are so shocking, because surprises are now unlikely. This isn’t like the 1990s, when even Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United could lose at home to Derby County and still win the title. The game has changed.
You can’t really afford to make mistakes at home, especially against mid-table sides, because City don’t offer that.
None of this, of course, means that this has been done. It’s just about how hard it is.
Great achievements are still achievable. Psychological changes are still possible.
The conceptually more forgiving fixture list for City may even play a part in this.
By the time City play their next Premier League match, both Arsenal and Liverpool will have played twice.
This could significantly change the face of the table again. This could change the mindset again. Both could be ahead despite more games being played.
Meanwhile, Arteta talked about what a great opportunity Arsenal have as the club looks to reach the Champions League semi-finals for the first time in 14 years.
“There couldn’t be a better moment” for the Bayern Munich rematch, he said.
Maybe this is true.
But what is beyond doubt is that neither Liverpool nor Arsenal can afford to slip any further. One more bad outcome can really do that.