Divers searching the wreckage of a luxury British yacht that sank in a violent storm off the coast of Sicily have found the bodies of two of the six missing passengers.
Tech mogul Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah were among those aboard the Bayesian, a British-flagged superyacht, when it sank off Porticello harbour near Palermo, Sicily, just before 5am on Monday morning. Others missing include Morgan Stanley International chief executive Jonathan Bloomer; his wife Judy Bloomer; Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda Morvillo.
Two bodies found on Wednesday have not yet been identified. One of the bodies found at the sinking site on Monday belonged to Canadian-Antiguan Recaldo Thomas, who worked as a chef at Bayesian.
The Italian Coast Guard did not rule out the possibility that those missing were still alive, with experts speculating that air pockets may have formed as the yacht sank. However Vincenzo Zagarola of the Italian Coast Guard said the six missing tourists were feared dead.
The Bayesian sank in a storm-hit area while anchored about half a mile off the coast of Porticello, but it is not yet known what caused the 56-metre-long ship to sink in a matter of minutes
Here are some of the theories discussed so far that look at what might happen that could cause Bayesian to fail.
Doors or windows left open
There was some speculation in media reports that the yacht sank because a large hatch or windows were left open. Structural engineer Filippo Mattioni pointed to the possibility of an “open hatch” taking in water.
Yachting experts have suggested that the hatches could have been broken or torn apart during the tornado, or left open by the hot weather, causing the Bayesian to quickly fill with water and sink. Andrea Ratti, a professor of naval design at the Polytechnic University of Milan, said a boat the size of the Bayesian could only sink so quickly by taking on a large amount of water.
The expert said “reasonable assumptions can be made that leave room for doubt about what happened” and suggested that one or more windows, doors or other openings may have been broken or shattered by the tornado and water may have seeped inside.
But an industry expert told Reuters that it would take hours for the Bayesian ship to fill with enough water to sink, rejecting the open hatch theory.
Fire department diver Marco Tilotta also told Il Messaggero daily that the wreckage was “apparently intact” with “no cuts or impact marks”. However, divers can only see half of the hull.
Was a retractable spine used?
The Bayesian was built with a retractable keel, a structure lying beneath the hull that helps balance the boat and acts as a counterweight against the mast. Both Ratti and Mattioni suggested that if the yacht had been anchored with the keel up, her underwater depth would have decreased from around 10 metres to 4 metres, making the ship less stable.
Ratti said the boat may have started swinging wildly “like a pendulum” in the strong winds. This could have put extraordinary stress on the mast, potentially causing it to break.
But he acknowledged that “that alone is not enough to justify the sinking.” So far, researchers have not said whether a retractable keel was used.
The yacht’s huge mast
Italian luxury yacht builder Perini Navi, which built the Bayesian, said the vessel has the world’s longest aluminium mast at 72 metres.
Scott Painter, the American entrepreneur who took over Mike Lynch’s Autonomy brand, told MailOnline that he believed the Bayesian sailboat could be more vulnerable to capsizing in bad weather because of its high mast.
He said: “That could certainly contribute to a capsize because it would upset the yacht’s stability. And if it leans too much, the yacht could certainly capsize.”
Sailing Today editor Sam Jefferson told The Telegraph: “She has a very long aluminium mast – I think the second longest in the world – and that wouldn’t have helped. In the extremely strong winds she experienced, her stability was clearly a problem and I assume the boat would have listed and wouldn’t have been able to right itself before it filled with water.”
Watch: What might have happened to Bayes’ yacht?
Karsten Borner, the captain of another yacht anchored nearby during the storm, claims to have seen the Bayesian’s mast “bent and then snapped.” But Ratt said an unusually long mast alone was not a vulnerability in the storm.
Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told the BBC it was difficult to say whether the mast had broken and that it was “completely speculative”. He added that divers had said the ship was “fundamentally sound” and that if the mast had broken “it would be something important to report”.
Freaky tornado caused by ‘higher than normal temperatures’
Italian authorities reported stormy conditions that caused the yacht to sink. It is thought the Bayesian may have been hit by a waterspout – a rotating column of wind that forms over a body of water and is often likened to a hurricane.
According to the U.S. National Ocean Service, tornadoes have “the same characteristics” as land tornadoes and are often accompanied by violent thunderstorms, “high winds and waves, large hail, and often dangerous lightning.”
Some climate experts said the storm could have been caused by global warming. Luca Mercalli, president of the Italian Meteorological Association, said the sea surface temperature around Sicily in the days leading up to the Bayesian set was around 30C, almost 3C above normal. “This creates a huge source of energy that contributes to these storms,” he told Reuters.
Borner, the captain of a boat anchored nearby, said the intense heat, which is more common in the summer months, plays a role in the formation of such storms.
“The water… is too warm for the Mediterranean and that certainly causes severe storms, like we had in the Balearic Islands a week ago, in Corsica two years ago, etc.,” he said.
Will we ever find out what happened to Bayes?
Because the investigation is still in its early stages, any explanation for exactly what happened to Bayes remains little more than a theory.
Experts are struggling to pinpoint a single cause and are hesitant to jump to any conclusions, especially since the yacht is assumed to have top-notch equipment and safety features. Another yacht moored next to it remained afloat during the weather event.
Matthew Schanck, president of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, described the sinking as a potential “black swan event” – something that was unforeseen, beyond what would normally be expected and could have potentially serious consequences.
However, he said he was confident that authorities would “investigate” the cause of the sinking because of survivors, eyewitness accounts and the fact that the ship appeared to remain intact on the seabed.
Who will lead the investigation?
Leading experts shared their insights into what might have caused Bayesian’s collapse.
The official investigation into the disaster is being led by prosecutors in the nearby town of Termini Imerese.
The investigation will be led by Termini Imerese Chief Prosecutor Ambrogio Cartosio, together with assistant prosecutors.
The UK Marine Casualty Investigation Service is also expected to assist with inquiries, with their case likely to take months to complete.