As the regular season draws to a close, each Friday we’ll take a look at one game that will impact the playoff race and the teams whose odds are rising and falling. And so, we are not neglecting the other races, we will see which teams are chasing for next year’s No. 1 pick.
game of the week
Dallas Cowboys (10-3) – Buffalo Bills (7-6)
Story of the season: Following the Bills’ flow is a must at this stage of such a challenging journey for both the franchise and the AFC as a whole. They’re 7-6 after surviving a battle with the Super Bowl champions to keep their season alive, but need to pile on the wins due to their poor division record and the minor detail of half the conference having the same win-loss column. The victory has the potential to send the Bills into the postseason squeeze, moving from 11th to seventh, so beating Kansas City was vital, but now knocking off the Cowboys is vital, too. Dallas heads to Buffalo dominating the Philadelphia Eagles; It’s a clear-cut victory that puts them in pole position in the NFC East and keeps them pedaling ahead of the 49ers in the race for the NFC’s top seed. Winning remains their most likely and likely only chance to capture the conference crown. The pressure is intense.
Here’s what the Bills need to do to win: Buffalo may be defeated, but their impressive home form (5-2) still gives them the advantage. To continue their impressive run, they need to feed off the Bills Mafia and their unmatched enthusiasm. The fever will be massive when the team returns home after a month away from Highmark Stadium. The crowd could also help boost the morale of receiver Stefon Diggs, who had a slump at the wrong time for his team. Diggs got off to a strong start, rushing for 100 yards or more in five of his first six games, but in his final six games, he averaged fewer than six catches and 58 receiving yards per game. Lack of usage needs to be addressed by the coaching staff, give the crowd what they want: Diggs’ return is special.
Here’s what the Cowboys need to do to win: Head coach Mike McCarthy’s offensive production was assured as quarterback Dak Prescott connected with receiver CeeDee Lamb. The former’s stellar season has him leading the MVP race, while the latter needs 107 yards and two touchdowns to surpass his best year yet. The defense needs to avoid putting quarterback Josh Allen in a risky confrontation with whoever gets the ball last. Statistically, Allen provides them with both carrot and stick: He leads the NFL in both giveaways and total touchdowns with 17 turnovers and 33 scores. Pressure is where they might look to reduce Allen’s impact; This year he has completed 50.4% of passes under fire compared to 75.2% in clean territory and has made six tackles under pressure. Pass rushers with considerable talent in Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence and Dante Fowler need to be released by defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. It would also be very helpful if rookie shooting guard Brandon Aubrey gets off to a great start to his career. The 28-year-old former software engineer has yet to miss his first 30 field goal attempts, an NFL record.
Risers and fallers in the playoff race
Rising: AFC North (mostly)
“Maybe the Pittsburgh Steelers’ tradition is over,” Ben Roethlisberger said on his Footbahlin podcast, reflecting on his team’s loss to the lowly Patriots. Now, if there’s one thing Ben Roethlisberger knows, it’s Footbahlin, so their race will likely be run forever. (I’m certainly still not bitter about the cost of living in Tom Brady’s shadow.) Meanwhile, the division’s other three franchises are thriving. While the Baltimore Ravens are out of the AFC dogfight at 7-6, the Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals are right in the mix thanks to their backup quarterbacks, or in the Browns’ case, backups supporting the backup’s backup. The No. 1 seed is in the hands of the Ravens — only the second in franchise history if they pull it off — while their improving passing attack could keep the Jacksonville Jaguars nervous about losing even more ground atop the AFC South against their team. Cleveland’s unexpected success with 38-year-old Joe Flacco looks fragile, but an 8-6 record and two wins from their last four games (Bears, Texans, Jets, Bengals) will carry them into the postseason. Incredibly, Flacco’s final dance is performed near the house Jake Browning built to add interest to the narrative. Back-to-back wins for the Bengals have brought hope from the ruins of Joe Burrow’s early exit, and with the offensively idle Vikings and Steelers next in line, Browning the The story of an incredible year across the league. Pittsburgh also leads 7-6.
Down: Houston Texans (7-6, currently #8 in the AFC)
The Houston Texans have been a blast in 2023. The underdog narrative of a constantly underdog team trying to get back on their feet never fails to capture hearts and minds. Their story went into overdrive as first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and his former player found success with a roster full of rookies. The Texans were dead in the Super Bowl betting odds last preseason, but they’re still in the playoff bubble and Ryans is rightfully the favorite to be named coach of the year. But the Jets’ defeat potentially brought their incredible journey to a halt. Another notch in the loss column is painful enough when the AFC is so stiflingly tight, but missing CJ Stroud and Nico Collins at least for this week’s meeting with the Titans might be too much to handle with Tank Dell already out of the lineup . The quarterback’s actions in the concussion protocol point to Davis Mills as the likely starter against Tennessee. Defeat could soon follow, resulting in a significant loss in the play-off race. Will this team have enough competition left to face Flacco’s Browns in Week 16?
Race for the number 1 pick
The Carolina Panthers can only improve after coming up short against the Saints, but their trip to Atlanta, where the Falcons play to regain supremacy in the NFC South, will only end one way. Nothing new there at the time, but Zach Wilson predictably provided the New York Jets with a completely unpredictable moment by playing spectacularly against Houston. The returning kid will even have put a smile on Aaron Rodgers’ face as he storms out of the race for the next top pick. Now we have New England, Arizona and Washington facing Kansas City, San Francisco and the LA Rams, respectively, in the battle for the No. 2 seed. The Chiefs are on the warpath, San Francisco is the NFL’s best, and Los Angeles needs to win to stay relevant, so in this year of absolute chaos, at least two of our best from the worst are sure to win to put the loser in pole position. WHO? Who knows?