The British love the Mediterranean. For 75 years we’ve been flocking to the Costa del Sol, the French Riviera and the Greek islands to bathe in their deep blue waters and soak up the summer sun.
But things changed last summer. Southern Europe witnessed one of the worst heatwaves in living memory: Cerberus. The mercury reached 45 degrees in some areas. The Acropolis in Athens was closed to tourists. There were forest fires in Sicily and Rhodes, where sun chasers had to evacuate. In late July 2023, the Mediterranean seemed like the last place on earth you wanted to be.
Fast forward to January 2024 and holiday firms are reporting their strongest booking figures since before the pandemic. Advantage Travel Partnership, which represents a number of travel agents in the UK, said January 13 was the busiest day ever for bookings. So, are the masses of British holidaymakers sticking to the Mediterranean, or are we dizzy?
We spoke to 40 of the biggest holiday companies in the UK to find out. Some offered precise booking data, others indicated increases and decreases, while others could only disclose search statistics due to market sensitivities. In short, the following is by no means comprehensive, but it does give an estimate of where people are booking and looking for the upcoming holiday season. An exit survey from the January sales, if you will.
Spain is still hot
“I would rather be a stranger in Spain than in most countries,” George Orwell wrote in 1938. It seems we’re all still on the same page; Spain is set to retain its crown as our favorite holiday destination.
Last year the Canary Islands, the Balearic Islands and mainland Spain were by far the most mentioned destinations in our survey, although some holiday favorites such as Lanzarote expressed desire for higher quality tourists. According to Tui, Majorca and Tenerife are the top two destinations, while easyJet Holidays lists Lanzarote, Tenerife, Alicante, Malaga and Valencia among its leading options. Eight of the top ten destinations offered by holiday aggregator Travel Supermarket are either on the Spanish mainland or on a Spanish island.
Despite the difficult season in 2023, the rest of the Mediterranean remains popular. Despite the forest fires last summer, Greece and Turkey are among the leading countries in Europe. Portugal has also been mentioned in large numbers (notably more than Italy and France combined), with Advantage Travel Partnership revealing that bookings to the country are up 54 percent compared to the same week last year.
Is interest in Iceland (and the Middle East) waning?
As the Mediterranean continues to grow in popularity, some destinations will inevitably face a relative slowdown in 2023. Iceland, for example, was not among Original Travel’s top ten destinations for January bookings, perhaps due to the ongoing volcanic eruption. This made headlines. Some agencies report that high bookings to Norway could be cashing in on tensions in Iceland: “Adventures under the Northern Lights, in particular, are seemingly having a moment,” said Much Better Adventures, which lists Norway as a top destination for 2024.
Adventure travel tour operator Explore said: “It’s no surprise that the Middle East is in decline, with last year’s best-selling trip, Discover Jordan, falling out of the top five this January.” The UAE and Egypt, on the other hand, appear resilient: Holiday Extras reported a 65 percent and 87 percent year-on-year increase in bookings for these destinations, each mentioned multiple times in our survey.
In it for the long haul
A consistent message from tour operators and travel agents surveyed is that long-distance transport is extremely popular; This suggests that climate concerns have not yet affected the travel plans of the majority of Britons. Thomas Cook reported that just four per cent of bookings at this time last year were to long-haul destinations. This year, far-flung holidays accounted for more than 11 percent of the gain in the January window.
“Families may be preparing to fly across the Mediterranean for cooler temperatures in the summer months; for example, in Mauritius, summer temperatures are typically 25-30C,” said Thomas Cook product manager Emma King.
In addition to the Caribbean islands (especially Barbados), the Maldives, India, the USA, Mexico, Sri Lanka and Vietnam were also popular in our January sales exit survey. Japan, in particular, looks set to be one of the leading destinations for 2024: Ultimate Travel Company reports a 167 percent increase, while Newmarket Holidays says its Japan Unveiled itinerary is a bestseller. This is most likely because in January 2023, Japan has only been open to tourists for a few months.
Interestingly, a handful of operators are reporting a slight decline in bookings in France. Visit Britain’s annual trends report predicted: “The Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris in July and August could displace some inbound traffic if hotel rooms are difficult to secure and access to major tourist attractions is difficult.”
Decision
All of the above means good news for the travel industry, as well as good news for holidaymakers. Last year it came close, but fell just short of 2019’s record-breaking tourism figures. According to our exit polls, pre-pandemic highs are likely to be surpassed in 2024. Tui, easyJet Holidays and Jet2holidays have accumulated millions of extra seats for this summer: these appear to be filling up, but if they are to go these firms will need to keep the price right, especially as sales sell out in the ongoing cost of living crisis. Don’t be surprised if nineties-style last-minute savings pop up as the summer window approaches.
As for where to book? If you want to find some short-haul sun without encountering too many British tourists, we noticed a lack of overt excitement in Croatia, Cyprus, Montenegro and Malta; each has similar climates to its popular counterparts, Spain, Greece and Turkey. However, we do not plan to land the same amount this summer.