NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Ongoing devastating rains in East Africa are worsening due to human-caused climate change and are twice as intense, an international team of climate scientists said Thursday.
The analysis comes from World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists studying whether and to what extent human-caused climate change is altering the likelihood and magnitude of extreme weather events.
Hundreds of people have died and millions more have been affected since the rains began in October.
October to December is the “short rains” season in East Africa; The frequency and intensity of rains are influenced by two naturally occurring climate phenomena: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), both of which have shaped up this year to increase the likelihood of heavy rainfall.
To assess how climate change may have affected this year’s season, 10 researchers used climate model simulations as well as weather data from three countries to compare how the season has changed in today’s climate, which has warmed by about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees). Fahrenheit) with a cooler pre-industrial climate.
They found that rainfall has almost doubled due to global warming. The scientists also said that the IOD contributes almost equally to the density.
They found that rainfall between October and December was “some of the heaviest ever recorded” during “short rainy” seasons in the past 40 years.
Joyce Kimutai, chief meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological Department and lead author of the study, said the findings highlight the dangers of continued warming of the planet and humanity’s need to reduce emissions. “Not everything we do is absolutely okay.”
“What the planet is telling us is: ‘You’re constantly heating me up, and I have no way of dissipating that heat except by increasing the way the atmosphere behaves,'” said Kimutai, who is also a researcher at Imperial College. London.
The findings show the impact of fossil fuel burning, mostly by rich countries, on vulnerable populations. The world is increasingly experiencing climatic extremes. Greenhouse gas emissions, which trap heat and warm the planet, are rising to record levels. The World Meteorological Organization said last week that 2023 is almost certain to be the hottest year on record and warned of more worrying climate events.
John Musingi, a senior lecturer in climatology and climate change at the University of Nairobi, said climate change could cause climate extremes worse than the heavy rains experienced in East Africa.
“Global temperatures do not need to increase so much to destabilize the life support system on Earth,” said Musingi, who was not involved in the study. “When the balance of climate maturity is disrupted, it will be catastrophic.”
The study also examined the impact of heavy rains on communities in the region. Researchers found that people who have not yet recovered from the devastating shocks of a three-year drought made worse by climate change are having difficulty coping with the effects of the rains. They said increased risks from extreme weather conditions could strain the response of governments and humanitarian organisations.
Torrential rains and flash floods have caused widespread death, displacement and destruction of infrastructure in parts of East Africa, affecting millions of people since October.
At least in Kenya 154 people died and nearly half a million people were displaced. In neighboring Somalia, the death toll rose to 110 on Monday and more than 1 million people were displaced. In Ethiopia, rains caused the death of 57 people and the displacement of more than 600,000 people as of November 27. Last weekend in Tanzania, severe floods and landslides in the northern part of the country caused the death of at least 68 people and injured 100 people.
The rains also caused an increase in cholera and other water-borne diseases in some regions.
“What we are witnessing in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia is another devastating blow to an already fragile humanitarian situation,” said Melaku Yirga, regional director for Africa at humanitarian organization Mercy Corps. “Floods completely destroyed villages, destroying homes, farmland, and critical infrastructure needed to support the rapid recovery and movement of people, goods, and much-needed humanitarian aid.”
He called on world leaders to fulfill their commitments to help communities adapt and cope with the challenges posed by climate change.
Musavengana Chibwana, regional humanitarian advocacy and policy manager for eastern and southern Africa at humanitarian organization Save the Children, said the situation in East Africa highlighted an urgent need for climate change adaptation and a regional approach to the crisis.
“Just a few months ago, consecutive droughts and water shortages in the Horn of Africa led to loss of life; “Now floodwaters are doing the same,” he said. “This is a clear indicator of the worsening climate crisis,” he said.
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