A global race to produce the powerful computer chips needed for the next generation of artificial intelligence (AI) tools could have a major impact on global politics and security.
The United States is currently leading the race in the design of these chips, also known as semiconductors. However, most of the production is carried out in Taiwan. The debate comes as Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT, announced a global investment of between $5 trillion and $7 trillion (£3.9 trillion to £5.5 trillion) to produce more powerful chips for next-generation AI platforms. It flared up with his call. .
The amount of money Altman requested is more than the chip industry has spent in total since its inception. Whatever the facts about these numbers, the overall predictions for the AI market are mind-boggling. Data analytics company GlobalData estimates the market will be worth US$909 billion by 2030.
Unsurprisingly, over the past two years, the United States, China, Japan and many European countries have increased their budget allocations and taken measures to capture or maintain their share of the chip industry. China is quickly catching up, providing hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for chips, including next-generation chips for AI, over the next decade to build a manufacturing supply chain.
Subsidies also appear to be the preferred strategy for Germany. The UK government has announced plans to invest £100 million to support regulators and universities in tackling AI-related challenges.
Economic historian Chris Miller, author of Chip War, talked about how powerful chips have become a “strategic commodity” on the global geopolitical stage.
Despite efforts by many countries to invest in the future of chips, there is currently a shortage of the types needed for AI systems. Miller recently revealed that 90% of the chips used to train or develop AI systems are produced by just one company.
This company is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC). Taiwan’s dominance in the chip manufacturing industry is notable because the island is also the focus of tensions between China and the United States.
Read more: If China invades Taiwan, microchip industry would collapse and it would affect everyone
Taiwan has been largely independent since the mid-20th century. But Beijing believes it should reunify with the rest of China, and U.S. legislation requires Washington to help defend Taiwan if it is invaded. It is unclear what would happen to the chip industry under such a scenario, but it is clear that it is the focus of global concerns.
Disruption of supply chains in chip manufacturing has the potential to bring entire industries to a halt. Access to raw materials such as rare earth metals used in computer chips has also proven to be a major bottleneck. For example, China controls 60% of gallium metal production and 80% of global germanium production. These are both critical raw products used in chip production.
And there are other, lesser-known bottlenecks. A process called extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography is vital to the ability to continue making computer chips increasingly smaller and therefore more powerful. ASML, the only company in the Netherlands, is the sole manufacturer of EUV systems for chip production.
However, chip factories are increasingly being rebuilt outside Asia; This has the potential to reduce over-reliance on a few supply chains. Subsidies worth US$ 43 billion are provided to facilities in the USA and US$ 53 billion to factories in Europe.
For example, Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer TSMC plans to build a multibillion-dollar facility in Arizona. When the factory opens, it will not produce the most advanced chips currently possible to make, many of which are still produced by Taiwan.
Moving chip production out of Taiwan could reduce global supply risk if production is disrupted in some way. However, this process may take years to have a meaningful impact. It is perhaps not surprising that this year’s Munich Security Conference created a section dedicated to technology as a global security issue, discussing the role of computer chips for the first time.
Wider issues
Of course, demand for chips that will accelerate the growth of AI is not the only way AI will have a major impact on geopolitics and global security. The rise of disinformation and misinformation online has transformed politics in recent years, inflating biases on both sides of the debate.
We saw this during the Brexit campaign, during the US presidential election and, more recently, during the conflict in Gaza. Artificial intelligence may be the ultimate amplifier of disinformation. Take deepfakes (AI-manipulated videos, audio, or images of public figures) for example. These can easily fool people into thinking a major political candidate is saying something he or she isn’t.
In a sign of the growing importance of this technology, at the 2024 Munich Security Conference, one of the world’s 20 largest technology companies launched something called the “Technology Pact.” In this document, they pledged to collaborate to create tools to detect, tag and debunk deepfakes.
So should such important issues be left to technology companies and the police? Mechanisms such as the EU’s Digital Services Act, the UK’s Online Safety Act, as well as frameworks to regulate AI itself, will also help. However, time will tell what kind of impact they can have on the issue.
The issues raised by the chip industry and the increasing demand driven by the growth of AI are just one way AI is driving change on the global stage. However, it remains an issue of vital importance. National leaders and officials should not underestimate the impact of artificial intelligence. The potential to redefine geopolitics and global security may exceed our ability to anticipate and plan for changes.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Alina Vaduva is affiliated with the Labor Party as a member and elected councilor in Dartford, Kent.
Kirk Chang does not work for, consult for, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond his academic duties.