ST. LOUIS (AP) — Flooding is pushing millions of people out of their homes, limiting growth in some prosperous communities and accelerating the decline of others, according to a new study detailing how climate change and flooding are transforming where Americans live.
In the first two decades of the 21st century, the threat of floods persuaded more than 7 million people to avoid or leave risky areas, according to a paper published Monday in the journal Nature Communications and research by risk analysis firm First Street. Basis.
Climate change is making bad hurricanes more intense and increasing the amount of rain storms dump on the Midwest. And in the coming years, researchers say, millions more people will decide this is too much to live together and break up.
First Street found that climate change creates winners and losers at the neighborhood and block level.
Zoom out and think about the whole country; Americans appear to be ignoring the threat of climate change when deciding where to live. For example, Florida, which is vulnerable to rising seas and strong storms, is growing rapidly. But this overlooks an important way that people behave locally. Most moves are short range; people are staying close to their families, friends and jobs.
Jeremy Porter, head of research at First Street, said “the story is more than just population increases in Sun Belt states.”
“People want to live in Miami. If you already live in Miami, you don’t say, ‘Oh, this property is a 9 (out of 10 for flood risk), let me move to Denver,'” Porter said. “They’ll say, ‘This property is a 9, but I want to live in Miami, so I’ll look for a 6, 7, or 5 in Miami.’ You will think about relative risk.
This is what First Street predicts for the next three decades: Blocks in Miami that are most likely to be hit by a severe storm are more likely to see their population decline, even though the bulk of the city is expected to absorb more people.
These findings are driven by very detailed data on flood risk, population trends and the reasons people move; These data allow researchers to isolate the impact of the flood, even though local economic conditions and other factors may have motivated families to move away and live elsewhere. They analyzed population changes in very small areas down to the census block.
Some blocks grew quickly and could have grown even faster if flooding wasn’t an issue, according to First Street. Expanding but flood-prone areas could grow about 25% more and attract about 4.1 million more people if this risk were lower. Researchers also identified areas where flood risk triggered or worsened population decline, calling these “climate abandonment areas.” Over two decades, approximately 3.2 million people have left these neighborhoods due to flood risk.
When First Street predicted 2053, most of the new areas of climate change abandonment were in Michigan, Indiana, and other parts of the Midwest. Flood risk is just one factor driving this shift, and it doesn’t mean communities are being evacuated, said Philip Mulder, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who focuses on risk and insurance.
“People can live in smarter places within these communities. This is as true for Detroit as it is for Miami,” he said.
When people know that a home may flood, they are less likely to buy it. But some states do not require disclosure of flood history, according to Joel Scata, a senior attorney on the Natural Resources Defense Council’s climate adaptation team.
“Access to good information in the real estate market is really important,” Scata said.
Even for people who have help moving, the choice can be overwhelming. Socastee, a community near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, was flooded not only when hurricanes hit, but sometimes when heavy rain fell and water reached doorways and yards. First Street’s data says Horry County won’t grow that fast over the next three decades due to flood risk.
One resident who has experienced repeated flooding said that whenever storms hit and destroy your sense of security, it “makes you sick” with anxiety.
Terri Straka decided to move out of the area but had a hard time convincing her family to do the same. He eventually brought them to a house for sale and said it could be the home of their dreams. They reluctantly agreed to move.
“Being able to visualize what the future might look like is absolutely critical for people to be able to move. They need to imagine a place, and it needs to be a real place that they can afford,” said Harriet Festing, executive director of the Anthropocene Alliance, which supports communities like Socastee affected by disaster and climate change.
Older people move less and money is needed to move; Therefore, if people do not receive adequate help and do not have the means, they are more likely to stay in risk areas. When people begin to move, that could accelerate the departure of others, leaving fewer residents behind to support a shrinking local economy, according to study author Matt Hauer, a demographic expert at Florida State University.
But there are also winners. First Street found that Louisville, Kentucky, Detroit and Chicago, as well as several other major cities, have so much space with little flood risk that they will be attractive in the future.
“They shouldn’t underestimate the relative benefits of being a safer place in a warming world,” Mulder of the University of Wisconsin said of cities like Chicago.
___
Fassett reported from San Francisco.
___
The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation on water and environmental policy issues. AP is solely responsible for all content. For all AP environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment