This was a particularly good Goal of the Month in December 2006. Adrian Chiles introduces the BBC and Lightning Seeds squad from the FA Cup third round match between Tamworth and Norwich City. “It’s a pretty impressive December goal of the month contest really,” he says before moving on to Bramall Lane.
A long shot was fired into the box and headed towards the D where Keith Gillespie volleyed hard into the corner. Morten Gamst Pedersen makes it the kind of thing you remember. Matty Taylor scores Matty Taylor’s goal. Paul Scholes’ Villa Park volley then Michael Essien struck from Earl’s Court with a towering curler at Stamford Bridge.
What is striking is not only the boldness and range of the shots but also the different types of goals. In the current Premier League this diversity is lost. In video game circles, finding space near the sideline and cutting the ball towards goal for an easy finish was once considered a fake pass. Goals like these now seem like the only way forward.
Going beyond goals, there is a clear flattening of styles in the top flight. Control is everything and teams are more controlled in the way they move with and without the ball. Spontaneity is more likely to lead to being a substitute rather than being applauded. They often say the same thing when a new coach is appointed. They like to keep the ball, play at a high tempo, press and win back quickly.
In six days we saw two ridiculous matches involving Chelsea: a 4-1 draw at Tottenham and a 4-4 draw at Manchester City. From this perspective, this is a counterintuitive question. So has Premier League football become more boring?
Perhaps we are all more aware of the inner workings of football. Wolves manager Gary O’Neil appeared on Monday Night Football last month to show how his double pivot in midfield had trumped Bournemouth’s pressing effort. Depending on your view, this was either an exciting glimpse behind the curtain or a slightly depressing reflection of how little freedom talented footballers are given.
Risk taking is decreasing. Over the past 20 years there has been a decline from around 13 shots per game from outside the zone to currently close to nine. Headed goals are also in decline, accounting for almost one in five Premier League goals in 2004/05, now more like one in 10. Direct free kicks go in the same direction as shots taken from outside the penalty area, but goals are scored from outside the area, suggesting players are smarter about choosing which shot to take. Or they are under strict instructions. You’d think Tony Yeboah or Matt Le Tissier’s xG average shooting would now lead to disciplinary action.
A rare critical voice emerged from the coaching community last year. Speaking to Marca, Cesc Fabregas, who was then in Monaco and is now in Como, said: “A game is being made with robots.” “You watch the games and you know what’s going to happen. A bit of pressure, a long ball from the back, the striker pushing the ball all the way or the midfield coming in, it becomes very monotonous in many teams.”
If you need a villain, make him Pep Guardiola. Success is the most powerful propaganda of Orthodoxy, and the genius of its highly ordered methods is being copied throughout the world. Few people dare to try something different. Thomas Frank’s Brentford have had a slight possession minority in the Premier League this season and there are other outliers in certain scenarios, such as Ange Postecoglou’s novel decision to set an offside trap on the halfway line when there were nine men down against Chelsea. Only Diego Simeone is a consistent opposition player at the top level and you sense that few coaches mention his name in job interviews.
So how do perfectionists and detail-oriented football obsessives convey their ideas? “I went to clubs abroad and watched an hour go by of the throw-in,” says Mark Warburton, former manager of Brentford, Rangers, Nottingham Forest and QPR. “I think it’s not completely rigid with certain games like the NFL. But I think we’re definitely moving into a lot more structured and scripted aspects of the game.”
Patterns of play have been studied for years right up to non-league levels, but they are now more detailed and designed to create specific scenarios on the pitch, particularly the contrived overloads that are crucial to the success of Guardiola’s Manchester City. Most trainers now do shorter training sessions, but at higher intensity. Time spent in the video analysis room closes the gap.
Doesn’t seem like much fun. “Players are not stupid,” says Warburton. “If they see something that benefits them, they will do it because it pays off, even if they hate doing it. But sometimes the level of detail is excessive. “If there’s an individual moment of genius, if a player drops his shoulder and beats two guys, then your best-laid plans go out the window.”
All this is not Guardiola’s fault. The standardization of coaching courses is resulting in graduates with broadly similar views, and increasing data means many English clubs employ more than one analyst. “Data is huge and many people don’t appreciate how important it is, but it can’t be everything,” Warburton says.
“Hiring cannot be 100 percent data-driven. But it definitely has a huge impact on the game, and that will definitely increase over the next three to five years. “This can’t harm any aspect of the game that we all love.”
How significant these changes are will depend on your overall perspective. A football fan can still enjoy the sport’s most basic form, without hidden trigger triggers, if they so choose. But there is a feeling that something is lost.
‘I am extremely risk averse’
Nick Hancock once depended on the volatility of football to make a living. The host of They Think It’s All Over now runs the podcast The Famous Sloping Pitch and laments the loss of a more unpredictable time. “The players are much better, much fitter and have a wider range of skills, but that doesn’t make the game more exciting,” he says. “I hear people at games berating players for doing things and ‘They’re just doing what they’re told.’ I think. “The days of players holding the game by the scruff of the neck are over.”
His view is that today’s more prescribed style is a product of saturated football news and fear of failure. “I get the feeling that the players and the referees are never happier than when there is a break in the game because it can’t be their fault at all.
“Pressure and judgment make the game extremely risk averse. This is compounded by the fact that they are always trying to keep the game free of human error. That’s not exactly the game. It’s sublime skill and athleticism, but it’s also about human fallibility. “Having perfect pitches and seven substitutions, it’s all there to help guarantee the right team wins.”
It may be a while before we see a proper clash of styles again. When everyone becomes a culture club, the crazy gang can’t beat the culture club. “Teams will evolve to join the trend of possession being the current blueprint for success,” says Doncaster Rovers analyst and scout Jack Manship. “Teams like Brighton, Aston Villa, Newcastle who never park the bus for long are now dictating play in many of their matches, so they find themselves in much stronger positions than before in the recent past.
“It’s no coincidence that most of the teams with the least possession on average are at the bottom of the Premier League this season.”
He thinks ultra-defensive tactics are outdated before Pep-lite football and Warburton looks forward to a future even more influenced by Guardiola. “I think we will see a complete breakdown of the formations we know. Various coaches have always made various adjustments but I think now we will see the formations progress, especially with Pep having a big impact.
“Your centre-half will be open to the left and we will train more comfortable players in all areas. The days of a big Jack Charlton-type centre-half will be over.” This is at least a different kind of unpredictability and excitement. Where do you get your kicks, plinking wingers or in-game tweaks from 3-4-3 to 2-4-3-1? are you doing?
For now at least, the sound and fury of the Premier League still seems as vital as its advertising. We expect a further shift towards control, albeit slowly. If current trends continue, football will become ever more refined, optimized and ultimately unattractive.
Think about your favorite shootout match of all time. Was it perfect or loose, wild and unbalanced? In the future, this second category may no longer exist.