DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The fight over the future of fossil fuels came into the global spotlight at the COP28 climate summit.
For nearly three decades, policymakers representing nearly 200 countries at the UN’s annual climate conference have failed to meaningfully address the burning of coal, oil and natural gas as the primary driver of the climate crisis.
Many gathered in Dubai for COP28 believe the talks can only be considered successful if they result in an agreement to “phase out” all fossil fuels.
The language of the final agreement, which is expected to be made on or around December 12, will be closely watched. A commitment to “phase out” will likely require moving away from fossil fuels until the use of fossil fuels is eliminated; “phase out” may refer to a reduction in their use – but not an absolute end.
There is also a debate about whether a deal should focus on “reduced” fossil fuels that are captured and stockpiled by carbon capture and storage technologies. It is understood that “unabated” fossil fuels are largely produced and used without a significant reduction in the amount of greenhouse gases released.
Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the world’s most influential Earth scientists, told CNBC that there is no doubt that COP28 “must be a mitigation COP.”
“The outcome of COP28 must be that all the oil, gas and coal nations of the world see that we are now truly at the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era for the world economy. “And now we’re starting to bend the curve properly,” he said.
“This is the only thing that determines whether COP28 will be successful,” he continued. “Everything else will follow. “So it is of course good to make progress on loss and damage, Article 6, finance, adaptation, nature, agriculture and water, but it all depends on whether we make progress on phasing out fossil fuels.”
The draft text published in the early hours of Friday appeared to raise the possibility that world leaders could sign a deal to “phase out” all fossil fuels. But other scenarios include the option of “phasing out” hydrocarbons, focusing only on coal, or not mentioning fossil fuels at all.
Not everyone agrees with calls for a phase out. While Russia has said it will oppose the use of this language in the final agreement, the United Arab Emirates, which hosts COP28, has signaled its preference for this language to be phased out.
Big Oil is also pushing to shift the focus away from calls to phase out fossil fuels. Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods told CNBC on Saturday that society should instead prioritize reducing emissions, which he described as “the real problem.”
‘This year is different’
At the start of an unprecedented session on Thursday, delegates at COP28 signed details of a landmark agreement to help the world’s most vulnerable countries pay for the effects of climate disasters.
The launch of the so-called loss and damage fund was hailed as a welcome breakthrough and helped pave the way for policymakers to deliberate on other important issues.
“We no longer have agenda fights [and] “We don’t have a loss and damage fight, which gives us room for a big fossil fuel fight,” said Catherine Abreu, founder of the Destination Zero network of nonprofits working on climate issues.
“It’s important to say that more fossil fuels equals more loss and damage, so those two issues are actually quite intertwined,” he added.
Abreu told CNBC that he had previously written about the importance of finally “saying the F-words” at the UN’s annual climate conference, arguing that “just a few years ago, talking about fossil fuels under the climate agreement was basically invisible.”
In particular, at the COP27 conference held in Egypt last year, more than 80 countries supported the commitment to phase out fossil fuels in the final agreement. The call ultimately failed to gain sufficient support, but appeared to reflect growing momentum towards recognizing fossil fuels as the biggest contributor to climate change.
Abreu attributed the COP27 defeat in part to the fact that the parties were not organized enough to win this war.
“This year is different,” he said. “Going into COP28, we actually see that the parties are very organized on this front. “So, at almost every multilateral event held in 2023, we have witnessed a major debate about the pace and scale of the energy transition.”
“In the next few weeks we will see the parties negotiating this landing zone on how the energy transition package will be included in the final outcomes of COP28,” Abreu said.
‘A firehose of fossil fuels’
A series of COP28 announcements on Saturday aimed to help decarbonise the energy sector, with nearly 120 governments pledging to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030. Other initiatives launched over the weekend included major blocs pledging to expand nuclear power and reduce methane emissions.
But preventing the worst effects of the climate crisis depends on completely stopping the burning of fossil fuels, according to the UN chief.
“We cannot save a burning planet from fossil fuels with a fire hose,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres told world leaders in Dubai on Friday.
“The 1.5 degree limit is only possible if we eventually stop burning all fossil fuels. Do not reduce. Not to reduce. “Phase out – with a clear time frame compatible with 1.5 degrees.”
It is widely accepted that the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) temperature threshold is crucial because so-called tipping points become more likely beyond that level.
Tipping points are thresholds where small changes can lead to dramatic shifts in the Earth’s entire life support system.
This article first appeared on NBCNews.com.