Arsenal: 18th Place 40 GS+20
case for When Martin Ødegaard crossed in the final innings at Luton on December 5, Declan Rice’s winner was inevitable. Not just because Rice has done this before – remember his decisive 96th-minute goal against Manchester United on September 3 – but also because Arsenal have made a habit of this sort of thing; never-say-die pressures that advertise the mentality of champions. They can also count late winners against Manchester City and Brentford, as well as an 84th-minute equalizer against Chelsea. What underlines that this will be Arsenal’s year in the Premier League is the foundations laid by Mikel Arteta. Rice’s signing in midfield was huge; He helps the team a lot defensively, especially against the counter-attack, bringing control, which has been the buzzword of the season so far. The defense itself has grown and an understated security has been developed with William Saliba at the center of everything. There is also greater strength from depth, distinct threat from set-pieces and the ability of Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka to make things happen compared to last season when a surprise challenge in April saw him run out of steam.
Counterclaim The biggest reason for this is Manchester City; There is a palpable sense in the corridors of power at Arsenal that the defending champions are ready to put together an eviscerating run in the second half of the season. As they are. Apart from that, will Gabriel Jesus be able to score enough goals as number 9? Can the club handle the increase in expectations? (The pressure at Arsenal, by contrast, is always immense.) Are they as fluent in attacking terms as they were last season? So will Arteta’s maneuver from Aaron Ramsdale to David Raya in the goalkeeper position hurt? DH
festival fixtures Thursday: West Ham (d), Sunday: Fulham (d)
case for While the league table, consistency of results and a five-point advantage over Manchester City (who have a game in hand) are good enough reasons to start, there are more factors behind Liverpool’s recovery as title contenders. The senior players (Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Alisson and Trent Alexander‑Arnold) took responsibility for last season’s failure to qualify for the Champions League, knowing what it takes to win the Premier League and taking advantage of City’s defeat. The personal insult that would lead to Liverpool’s revival. A new-look, senior midfield has settled in quicker and more harmoniously than perhaps Jürgen Klopp had envisaged. The squad has depth in most departments and a range of attacking options that are the envy of many Premier League clubs, and Liverpool have the talent to salvage the occasional off-day.
Counterclaim Dramatic comebacks and late winners are hallmarks of champions – especially when delivered with 10 men – but Liverpool have rarely needed them often this season, apart from a home win over Aston Villa and a Carabao Cup defeat by West Ham. Controlled an opponent or the game from start to finish. Liverpool are a team in transition and it shows at times. Results against other members of the so-called big six need to be improved. Liverpool are bottom of the mini-league and are the only team to have failed to beat their “big six” rivals this season, drawing with Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Arsenal and losing to Tottenham. With Joël Matip sidelined for the rest of the season, Liverpool could be seriously challenged by another injury in the center of defence. Klopp claims it is unlikely a solution will be found in the January transfer window. AH
festival fixtures Boxing Day: Burnley (a), Monday 1 January: Newcastle (sa)
Aston Villa: 18. Points 39 GH+16
case for Villas are free of expectations but make no mistake, Unai Emery, demanding at the best of times, knows how well positioned they are. Villa Park has become a fortress as Villa have won 15 of their last 16 home games. Emery played down his team-mates’ comments towards the title hopefuls, but his starting XI proved they could take on the best. Emiliano Martínez is an elite goalkeeper, their midfield pivot of Boubacar Kamara, John McGinn and Douglas Luiz is one of the best in the league, and talisman Ollie Watkins and strikers Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey have blazing pace. Unlike most of their rivals, Villa will be able to focus almost exclusively on the league until March, when their Europa Conference League campaign resumes in the last 16. Apart from an FA Cup trip to Middlesbrough in January, they can continue their quest for success at full throttle. First league title since 1981.
Counterclaim Can the villa handle the noise? For many of this team, the championship race represents new territory. The obvious concern is whether Emery has enough strength in reserve. For example, when Leander Dendoncker came on against Arsenal, Villa’s control loosened. Watkins has started every league game and while Jhon Durán has been impressive from his angles, there is no similar change. The same goes for Martínez. At the same time, Villa have shown this season that they are able to compensate for the absence of important players such as Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendía. Perhaps Sheffield United’s dogged display last Friday, when they were left out of ideas and almost empty-handed against Villa’s low block, can provide the others with a blueprint for how they can tamp down Emery’s winning machine. boyfriend
festival fixtures Boxing Day: Manchester United (a), Saturday: Burnley (h)
Tottenham: 18th Place 36 GD+13
case for No one thought Tottenham would feature in this kind of article at the start of the season, given what happened last time out: the collapse under Antonio Conte; also the sale of Harry Kane in August. Equally no one thought Spurs would be top after 10 games but they were, off to their best start since 1960-61. There was a statistic that said they were the 13th team to score 26 or more points after 10 matches in the Premier League season; Six of the previous 12 won the title, four finished second, with Arsenal finishing third in 2007-08 and Newcastle sixth in 1994-95. In other words, get that kind of start and history says you’re almost always in it for the long haul. Spurs went on a five-game wobble after that, but everything about Ange Postecoglou’s involvement said there was no soul-searching/rebellion. The manager’s bold style found harmony with both players and fans; The first 10 games showed what is possible when everyone is available.
Counterclaim Spurs are at the beginning of their project under Postecoglou and lack the quality needed in all areas and, moreover, the strength in depth, even without European football to occupy their calendar. Given that the club returned with one trophy (the 2008 League Cup) from Daniel Levy’s 22-year presidency, it is certainly too much to ask for them to suddenly win the biggest domestic title. DH
festival fixtures Thursday: Brighton (d), Sunday: Bournemouth (d)
Manchester City: 17th place 34 SE+20
case for At a club built to win and keep winning, Pep Guardiola’s relentless need to do so has clinched five titles in six years and his determination to “keep being there” (a Catalan mantra) is the fuel that motivates his players too. Seven points from the last 18 is not title-conserving form but after Manchester City’s Club World Cup triumph, Guardiola can build on the performance of three years ago. Then, with a point at West Brom in mid-December and five points behind Tottenham, Guardiola turned the team around and a 15-game winning streak took them to the title. Despite the recent decline, the difference between them and Arsenal is only 6 points. Oh, and Kevin De Bruyne, who has been missing since the first minutes of the season, will also be back soon.
Counterclaim How to replace a three-time winning captain like İlkay Gündoğan was the problem Guardiola grappled with last season. His answer was Mateo Kovacic, who was not of the same cultured class, and City lost his significant influence in the dressing room. Riyad Mahrez also left and his successor Matheus Nunes remains on the sidelines until now. Attracting and motivating a squad that has been champions for the last three seasons is another major challenge for Guardiola. J.J.
festival fixtures Wednesday: Everton (g), Saturday: Sheffield United (d)