NASA management is engaged in deep discussions this week about whether the agency should send its astronauts back to Boeing’s crippled Starliner capsule or use a SpaceX spacecraft to rescue the crew.
The agency’s concern about the Starliner, which carried NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams to the International Space Station in early June, stems from its inability to determine the root cause of why some of the spacecraft’s thrusters failed during docking, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC.
NASA has been discussing the possibility of returning Starliner empty this week and instead using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft to return its astronauts. There is no consensus among those responsible for making that decision, the person said, adding that the outcome of NASA’s ongoing discussions is unpredictable given the various factors involved.
The Starliner capsule, “Calypso,” has been in space for 59 days and counting. The mission is intended to serve as the final step toward proving that Boeing’s long-delayed spacecraft is safe for long crewed missions to and from the ISS.
The Boeing crewed flight was initially scheduled to last at least nine days, but was extended several times as the company and NASA conducted tests both on the ground and in space to understand the thruster problem.
While NASA and Boeing management have publicly characterized the extensions as data-gathering efforts, concerns voiced in recent days suggest that the agency has less confidence than it has stated about whether Starliner is safe to return astronauts.
Ars Technica first reported NASA’s mixed view on the Starliner’s status. NASA had previously said SpaceX was serving as a backup, but has sought to downplay that possibility by calling Boeing’s spacecraft the “primary option” for return.
Boeing says it has “flight justification” to return the Starliner with astronauts, meaning the company believes the spacecraft can return without too much risk.
“We continue to have confidence in the Starliner spacecraft and its ability to safely return with a crew. We support NASA’s requests for additional data, analysis and data reviews to validate the spacecraft’s safe separation and landing capabilities,” a Boeing spokesperson told CNBC on Friday.
If Starliner returns empty, the most likely alternative would be to bring back astronauts using SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, removing two astronauts from the Crew-9 mission — currently scheduled to launch four in the coming weeks. That would open up two seats for Wilmore and Williams.
NASA did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment on the ongoing Starliner talks, but told Ars Technica in a statement that the agency is “evaluating all options for a return.”
“No decisions have been made yet, and the agency will continue to provide updates on planning,” NASA said.
Relying on propulsion
NASA said 27 of Starliner’s 28 thrusters appeared healthy after tests last weekend. The thrusters, also known as the reaction control system, or RCS, engines, help the spacecraft move into orbit.
But from an engineering perspective, the lack of a root cause for why five thrusters failed on the flight to the ISS means there remains a risk that more thrusters could fail during the return flight.
Boeing’s Starliner program vice president Mark Nappi said in a July 25 press conference that testing the thrusters had yielded “very significant” findings that were “likely the root cause.” However, the company has yet to identify the root cause.
“We’ll continue to tear apart the hardware to prove it,” Nappi said at the time.
NASA must now decide whether it can trust that the unknown problem with Starliner’s thrusters won’t reoccur or even cause other problems.
An unforeseen outcome
NASA’s lack of consensus came to light earlier this week when the Commercial Crew Program Control Board met to discuss Starliner’s return. PCBs are a standard part of NASA’s decision-making process dating back to the Space Shuttle era and an effort to ensure that any risks can be escalated to the highest levels of the agency’s authority.
The PCB, chaired by Commercial Crew program manager Steve Stich, has not made a decision on whether to proceed with the flight readiness review, the next major agency step toward setting a date for Starliner’s return. The next PCB meeting is expected in the coming days, and NASA said in a blog post Thursday that return planning will continue into next week.
If any PCB member opposes the decision to send the Starliner back with the crew, the decision will move up the chain of command until the opposition is addressed. As it stands, the discussions within the PCB have no foreseeable outcome as NASA personnel debate the level of risk involved in sending the crew back on the Starliner.
Make a choice
NASA frequently emphasizes that “astronaut safety remains the agency’s top priority” when making decisions about human spaceflight, an inherently risky endeavor.
But the choice NASA faces has more ramifications, threatening Boeing’s participation in the agency’s Commercial Crew Program. Boeing’s Starliner losses have already exceeded $1.5 billion due to repeated setbacks and years of delays in the spacecraft’s development.
If NASA backs Boeing and sends Wilmore and Williams back on Starliner, the agency would be accepting an immeasurable amount of risk right now. A catastrophic failure during the return mission, with astronauts’ lives at risk, would put NASA leadership under pressure to terminate Boeing’s contract and participation in the program.
If NASA decides to send Starliner flying empty, it would be a vote of no confidence in Boeing and could lead to the company cutting its losses and pulling out of the program.
And if NASA chooses the SpaceX alternative and Starliner returns home without incident, the agency could face backlash for overreacting to a situation it has publicly stated for weeks poses no significant risk.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com