The NASA-led Artemis-3 mission will place the first human boots on the lunar surface since Apollo 17’s Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface in December 1972.
The goal of the Artemis program is to establish a permanent human presence on Earth’s natural satellite and a Moon-based economy. Artemis-3 is planned for September 2026 at the earliest. But further delays are likely and there are many technical challenges yet to be overcome. Some may wonder if this will happen.
I believe it will because, unlike the Apollo program, which was unaffordable in today’s terms, the current Moon effort will pay off financially and in terms of exploration. Extracting water ice from craters at the Moon’s south pole could reduce the cost of space exploration by making it easier to travel from the Moon to other destinations such as Mars.
That’s why the booming space industry currently seems fixated on the Moon as its destination; Countries cannot afford to miss this ship. The space sector can revitalize entire economies.
In the 1960s, the space race was mostly driven by flexing Cold War-era political and military powers. There are still some of these, adding to the rush for resources. After 1972, when the United States switched from the Apollo spacecraft to the space shuttle, human spaceflight became limited to low Earth orbit. However, in the 2000s, the United States announced that it would build new spacecraft to carry astronauts to deep space points such as the Moon.
special pioneers
In the same decade, the United States also made a strategic decision to leverage the creativity and cost-effectiveness of young companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin. These companies, owned by some of the world’s richest entrepreneurs (Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, respectively), stand out from the outside with their passion and risk-taking characteristics, but they are based on solid business models.
SpaceX’s massive Starship vehicle has been contracted by NASA to carry Artemis astronauts between the proposed Gateway station orbiting the Moon and the lunar surface. The starships were destroyed in each of the first three test flights. But the speed at which the problems were resolved was remarkable, and a year later Starship’s fourth integrated test flight saw both the upper stage and the Super Heavy rocket make soft landings.
This reaffirms SpaceX’s ability to exceed the boundaries of innovation and provide reliable, affordable services. It is famous for the steep spin landings of launch vehicles required for manned missions to the surfaces of the Moon and Mars. But Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has been contracted to land the Artemis-5 crew on the Moon with its own lander later this decade. It’s clear that NASA doesn’t want to put all its eggs in one basket.
National and commercial goals
Recent attempts to land on the Moon have revealed the fine line between success and failure. The fuel leak cut short private company Astrobotic’s mission in January 2024. This was part of NASA’s program aimed at launching dedicated transportation services to the Moon.
A thruster failure caused Russia’s Luna 25 to crash during its first attempt to land on the south of the Moon in August 2023. This occurred because Russia lost its place at the forefront of scientific and commercial space activities. A few days later, India’s Chandrayaan 3 lander successfully landed, making them the fourth country to make a soft landing on the Moon.
Japan followed suit in January 2024, when the Slim mission landed. Shortly thereafter, Houston-based Intuitive Machines became the first private company to make a soft (but risky) landing on the Moon. The Odysseus lander confirmed NASA’s belief in private enterprise participation as the future of sustainable use of the Moon.
Established aerospace companies such as Boeing are heavily involved in Artemis. But it seems only a matter of time before the relatively new kids on the block can go it alone, without the burden of space agency bureaucracy and the vagaries of congressional approval.
China enters the fray
There are two other relevant players in the race to the moon. The manned space program of the China National Space Administration (CNSA) is developing rapidly. It replaced Russia as NASA’s main rival by operating its own space station, Tiangong.
China aims to place boots on the lunar soil and establish a base called the International Lunar Research Station by 2030. They will partner with Russia and various countries with little or no previous space experience, such as South Africa and Egypt. CNSA’s lunar program went off flawlessly, with the uncrewed Chang’e 6 spacecraft making a soft landing on June 1, 2024. Its purpose is to send soil and rock samples from the far side of the Moon.
The other player is the US Department of Defense. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and the New Orbit Lunar Manufacturing Materials and Mass-Efficient Design program aim to improve the ability to build things in space. LunA-10, the Lunar Architecture study that will be carried out over the course of ten years, aims to develop infrastructure for the lunar economy such as transportation, wireless energy production and communications network.
However, along with this intense effort, ethical issues and the need for applicable laws and regulations also arise. Is it right to mine on the Moon? Who owns the land there?
We also need to consider whether the water at the Moon’s south pole should be depleted until nothing is left. The UN Outer Space Treaty, dating back to 1967, stipulates peaceful activity in space and on other celestial bodies. However, these are non-binding principles that say little about economic activities. So are the US Artemis Accords, signed by 42 countries as of May 2024. These do not include China and Russia.
It is almost certain that two moon bases will be in operation by the mid-2030s. Private and state-owned companies will exploit its resources, produce products, generate energy and offer accommodation to tourists.
All of this comes with technological innovations that can provide solutions on Earth. The race to the moon offers opportunities for peaceful international cooperation and shared economic prosperity. It will also inspire the new generation of engineers and entrepreneurs. For better or worse, it will be a milestone in the evolution of our species and will bring Mars within reach as our next destination.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Jacco van Loon does not work for, consult, own shares in, or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond his academic duties.