Nicola Sturgeon complained to a key adviser that she had failed to get him to sign off on the UK Government’s controversial strategy to “eradicate” Covid shortly after the pandemic began, secret messages have revealed.
The former chief minister told Prof Devi Sridhar in July 2020 that he had tried to get the UK to adopt the controversial zero Covid policy but had been informed that Sir Chris Whitty was “not keen on using that word”.
He said he eventually managed to get the UK Government to sign up for “maximum pressure”, adding that it “didn’t go as far as I would have liked, but I would interpret and describe it as elimination”.
Private Twitter messages and hundreds of other evidence released by the UK Covid inquiry last week showed Prof Sridhar told Ms Sturgeon he was working on “an exciting and actionable plan to eradicate it”. The University of Edinburgh public health academic became a key adviser to the first minister during the pandemic.
In 2020 he advocated “zero Covid in Scotland, which means there are no acceptable levels of cases and the number of cases has been reduced to negligible levels, so we can keep the economy and society going”.
At her evidence hearing in January, Ms Sturgeon denied that a zero Covid strategy meant her government was “taking its eye off the ball” as it prepared for an “inevitable” second wave.
But Prof Mark Woolhouse, a prominent epidemiologist, told the inquiry the policy meant there was “no practical alternative” to the January 2021 lockdown.
In his submission to the inquiry he said “zero Covid” had never been “a rational basis for making health policy, especially as it was doomed to fail”.
He said the only way to achieve this would be to “immediately go into lockdown and stay there” and “completely close the border with the UK” until a fully effective vaccine is found.
The inquiry was also shown graphs showing Scotland’s population rate in hospital was very similar to England’s for almost the entirety of the outbreak.
But on July 30, 2020, Prof Sridhar sent a Twitter message to Ms Sturgeon citing figures showing there were far more infections in the UK at the time. He said: “Your influence works; if only they could see that the elimination strategy is optimal.”
Ms Sturgeon replied: “I’m trying to take them to elimination – has Whitty been told he’s not keen on using that word?” England’s chief medical officer, Sir Chris, is a distinguished epidemiologist.
Prof Sridhar replied: “We had several discussions with Whitty on this issue. “I think he’s concerned that in February and March he advised against a full crackdown and now he’s changed completely to the opposite.”
He described Whitty as a “bloc”, prompting Ms Sturgeon to complain: “I love Whitty but I despair if concerns about past mistakes get in the way of doing the right thing now.”
Ms Sturgeon messaged Prof Sridhar again about the issue on 5 August 2020: “Confidentially, UKG will not use this word in my attempt to declare the 4 countries on qualification.
“I think I had them ‘suppress the virus to the lowest possible level and keep it there.’ I think I can consider this as progress…”
After Prof Sridhar pressed her to agree “no acceptable level of infection”, Ms Sturgeon replied: “I suspect I’ve taken them as far as they can go.”
The following month, after the four countries agreed on “maximum suppression”, Prof Sridhar posted: “Maximum suppression = elimination strategy = Zero COVID strategy. Interchangeable terms but mean the same thing.”
But in a diary entry in late September 2020, Sir Patrick Vallance said that “talk of abolition is long over” in Scotland.
He said: “With students locked down at Glasgow University and cases soaring, Devi Sridhar and Scotland appear to have forgotten the ‘elimination strategies’ that the UK should have followed.”
The following month, Sir Patrick, the UK Government’s chief scientific adviser, wrote: “Devi Sridhar has reconsidered her position, but the Times is giving her wide coverage as some kind of prophet!”
Ms Sturgeon’s spokesman said: “As Nicola made clear when she gave evidence to the inquiry, every decision she has made throughout the pandemic has been about protecting people in Scotland as best as possible during an incredibly difficult and uncertain time.”
A spokesperson for the University of Edinburgh said: “Professor Sridhar has nothing further to add beyond the comments he made at the Covid inquiry in January.”