Tottenham Hotspur have confirmed the most eye-catching deal of the January transfer window so far by signing former Chelsea striker Timo Werner on loan with an option to buy.
Ange Postecoglou has managed to turn Spurs into a dynamic attacking force despite the summer sale of Harry Kane, but the club is still in the process of rebuilding its forward line after losing its record goalscorer.
Only Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah have scored more goals in the Premier League this season than Son Heung-min; If South Korea goes all the way in the Asian Cup, Spurs could go six weeks without a goal.
Werner’s two seasons at Chelsea had not been the best after a £47.5m move from RB Leipzig in 2020, with the German club buying him back for £25.3m two years later.
The striker has not set the Bundesliga on fire since his return, but there is reason to be optimistic about the stylistic alignment at Spurs under Postecoglou.
There are similarities with the Son but there is one glaring difference
One explanation for Werner’s struggles at Chelsea was their inability to identify his best position. Was he better from the middle, from the left or as part of the front two?
However, the fact that Werner can be used both as a centre-back and as a left winger does not worry Postecoglou, as these are the two positions that need to be protected in Son’s absence.
Richarlison can play both roles; Postecoglou benefits from the versatility of his attacking options. Against stronger opponents, particularly away at Arsenal and Manchester City, Son led the line impressively in counter-attacking displays. Against Spurs, against teams that were behind the ball, Son could squeeze an extra striker onto the pitch by moving left with Richarlison at number 9. Werner would be part of this rotation.
Postecoglou likes to keep his wings high and wide; Tottenham’s full-backs move into attacking midfield positions, meaning their wingers need to have the explosiveness to deal alone and take advantage of the one-on-ones the system creates.
Like Son, Werner certainly has the pace that Tottenham’s head coach appreciates. Even when starting from the left, both players can threaten the back of the opposition defense with runs from the outside. One of Werner’s best performances for Chelsea came with his move in the 2021 Champions League final to expand Manchester City’s backline and create space for his teammates.
When we compare Son’s touch map this season with Werner’s touch map from last season, when he played more often for RB Leipzig, we see two players operating in similar areas. In an enterprising Spurs team, Son’s touches extend further up the pitch.
However, the biggest difference between the two players is their efficiency in front of goal. Werner has underperformed expected goals in each of the last four league seasons, significantly outperforming his baseline data from the season before signing for Chelsea.
His first season at Stamford Bridge was a particularly chilly one, causing him to lose the good will of many fans. Werner scored just six Premier League goals from 11.45xG and had a pathetic shot conversion rate of 7.6 per cent. He came on the end of 23 Opta-defined ‘big chances’ and missed 18 of them. Werner hasn’t been this wasteful since then, but he remains a below-par finisher.
By contrast, Son has performed above xG in all but one of his Premier League seasons (last season), and often significantly so. Son’s shot conversion rate has been over 20 percent in three of the last four seasons, and his big chance conversion rate has been over 40 percent in three of those four seasons. Werner can closely mimic Son positionally, but fails to achieve his almost peerless finishing.
Werner’s struggle to recover in the Bundesliga
Clubs are looking for new players who can contribute immediately in January and Werner needs to have enough experience to avoid a long adaptation period.
However, Spurs are signing a player who has made just two Bundesliga appearances this season and he will need to return to form in one of them.
Werner had a remarkable performance with nine goals and three assists in 23 league games for RB Leipzig last season, but he only played 204 minutes in the league and was on the bench for 50 minutes in the Champions League. Werner’s lack of minutes almost invalidates evaluation of his performance this season.
The return to Germany was a chance for Werner to rediscover the form that first attracted Chelsea, but his shot volume and xG per 90 minutes have not reached the levels seen before his move to England.
RB Leipzig are far from dominant in Germany, but were around the third strongest team in the Bundesliga last season and sit fourth in the league this season in terms of both points and expected goal difference. Their position in Germany is not even a mile away from Spurs’ position in the Premier League.
One area where Werner continues to excel statistically is the progressive passes received. According to the FBref website, Werner is among the top five percent of forwards in Europe’s top five leagues in this area, showing that his movement still has the capacity to separate him from the competition.
Spurs’ chaotic games may suit Germany
In Werner’s two seasons under Frank Lampard and Thomas Tuchel, Chelsea averaged over 60 percent possession in the Premier League. Only Manchester City and Liverpool had more possession of the ball. Against Chelsea, teams tended to sit deep and absorb pressure, narrowing down the space Werner likes to operate in behind. Tuchel’s Chelsea were a very organized and structured team whose low-scoring games limited their strengths throughout the league season but made them a successful cup team.
Spurs also have more possession of the ball, but under Postecoglou their football is more direct and their matches are more back and forth. This should please Werner, who is better suited to serving early rather than facing a stationary defense from a standing start.
Only Newcastle United’s matches have produced more expected goals than Tottenham’s, with 3.56xG per game either side this season. Spurs are inserting themselves into mixed competitions and seem almost to encourage them, which should give Werner some breathing room after a claustrophobic tactical stint at Chelsea.
Can he keep himself out?
You may remember that Werner’s offside habit became a joke at Chelsea, with many goals disallowed because he could not time his runs correctly. In his first season at Chelsea he was flagged for offside 42 times in all competitions; This is more than Premier League players.
This has also been a source of frustration and self-deprecating humor among Spurs fans, who have seen Richarlison score several goals only to be ruled offside following a VAR review. Only Darwin Nunez has been caught offside more often than Son in the Premier League this season. As a team, only Liverpool and Manchester United have been caught offside more times than Spurs.
In Werner, Spurs have added another player to their squad who was born offside, as Sir Alex Ferguson once said about Filippo Inzaghi. This is more a result of Werner’s style and strengths than a major mistake, and if he can stay on the right side of the line often enough he could reap big rewards. Spurs certainly won’t be short of forwards who want to live on the shoulder of the last defender.