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Satellites in SpaceX’s Starlink megaconstellation have performed nearly 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the past six months, nearly double the number in the previous six months.
Although experts praise Elon MuskExperts applaud space companies’ commitment to transparency, but warn of the impact of increased orbital traffic.
SpaceX announced the latest increase Semiannual Constellation Status ReportAccording to a report submitted to the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on July 1, on average, Star Connection The satellite fired its thrusters 14 times between December 1, 2023, and May 31, 2024, to avoid objects in orbit such as other Starlink satellites, spacecraft belonging to other operators, and other parts space junkIn the same six-month period, the Starlink constellation grew from about 5,100 operational satellites to 6,200 spacecraft.
SpaceX also said it lowered the maneuver threshold a bit, which satellites from a one in a million chance of collision, take action now to prevent a potential collision. SpaceX said in the report that this threshold is 100 times lower than the industry standard.
SpaceX began deploying its Starlink constellation in May 2019, becoming the world’s largest satellite operator within months. The mega-constellation quickly became a source of concern for space sustainability experts as it pushed orbital traffic into a whole new era, one in which performance collision avoidance maneuvers is a daily necessity, not an occasional inconvenience. For the first four years after the initial Starlink launch, the number of avoidance maneuvers doubled every six months, reaching 25,299 in the six months to May 31, 2023. Between May and December 2023, the number of maneuvers remained the same despite the increase in the number of satellites.
Relating to: Taking evasive maneuvers increases the risk of satellites colliding in the future
Hugh Lewis, a professor of astronautics at the University of Southampton in England and Europe’s leading expert on space sustainability, told Space.com that the recent doubling is largely due to a reduction in the maneuvering threshold used by SpaceX.
“Starlink satellites would have performed approximately 25,000 maneuvers during the period from December 1, 2023, to May 31, 2024, if the threshold had remained the same,” Lewis said. “This is about the same as in the previous two semiannual reports, despite the number of satellites in the constellation increasing.”
Lewis, who has been monitoring the effects of megaconstellations on orbital safety for years, said he expects more maneuvers given the constellations’ growing size.
“I would expect that increasing the size of the constellation would lead to more maneuvers, but I suspect increased solar activity “It also causes a reduction in the debris population at Starlink altitude,” Lewis said. “These two competing effects appear to result in a significant balancing of the number of maneuvers.”
Space weather Around the world, caused by coronal mass ejections and other solar flares thicken the thin gas in the upper atmosphere of the planet the satellites orbit in. As a result, spacecraft there experience increased drag, which pulls them to lower altitudes. powerful solar storm Lowering the altitude of satellites, such as the one that hit the Earth in May this year and caused spectacular auroral displays around the world low earth orbit According to a recent study, about half a mile. The study estimated that dead satellites and other pieces of space junk may have sunk several kilometers during the four-day event, which would have led to their quicker re-entry. Earth’s atmosphere.
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Starlink satellites use their built-in judgment to avoid other objects Artificial intelligenceAlthough increasing the number of maneuvers aims to make orbital operations safer, it may have negative effects on the prediction of future collisions. A study A study published last year by the Pennsylvania-based Commercial Space Operations Center (COMSPOC) found that each collision avoidance maneuver disrupts satellite path estimates for several days. After the maneuvers, the satellites’ actual positions can differ from those predicted by as much as 25 miles (40 kilometers), making collision predictions inaccurate.
Lewis added that the more Starlink satellites maneuver, the faster they burn through their propellant, which shortens their operational lifespan. SpaceX is committed to a zero-debris policy when it comes to Starlink, and as such, deorbits the satellites at the end of their lifespan. In the six-month period covered by the latest report, only one satellite failed to deorbit.
SpaceX continues to build its Starlink mega-constellation, which could eventually have up to 42,000 satellites. The number of Starlink evasion maneuvers will continue to grow over the next few years, reaching 80,000 per half-year by 2027, Lewis predicts.