Britain is heading for the lowest general election turnout in modern history, with the main parties and their leaders leaving many voters “politically homeless”, pollsters have warned.
The warning of mass apathy follows a Techne UK survey this week; This survey shows that even in the middle of the election campaign, with just a month left until polling day, 20 percent of people have decided not to vote.
The survey of 1,645 Britons of voting age by Techne for Independent Media reveals that although the percentage of the population who are “not going to vote” is normally high during non-election periods, it is expected to fall significantly during the short campaign (1,645 polling periods). dissolution of parliament and election day).
Apathy is particularly high among young voters, who say their concerns on issues such as housing are not being addressed by the major parties in the campaign. 38 percent of Gen Z and Millennials decided not to vote; This rate is almost twice the national average.
According to Techne, 30 percent of 18- to 34-year-olds are not even registered to vote.
Leading pollster Robert Hayward, who is also a Tory member, said many people who say they will or might vote will also not go to the polls on July 4.
He believes this is particularly because many Conservative voters are angry at their party, and believes it is because “Keir Starmer has failed to seal the deal and convince people that he is a prime minister in waiting”.
He said: “While 80 per cent say they will or might vote, most of those people will not vote. So the number of 20 percent of those who did not vote will be larger.
“I felt like we could be facing a record low turnout because it’s clear that a lot of voters seem politically homeless.
“The key to this is how many people would normally vote. “20 percent is a very high number if a large proportion of them would normally vote.”
Of those surveyed, 1,111 (68 percent) voted in the last election, and the remaining 534 (32 percent) were split between those who decided not to vote and those who were too young to vote in 2019.
This means that the proportion of people of voting age in the survey in 2019 was higher than the national proportion of people who voted in the last election (67 percent). Lord Hayward stated that this made the 20 per cent “won’t vote” figure “more significant”.
Polling guru Professor Sir John Curtice agrees that polls overestimate the number of people who will actually vote.
Told Independent: “We can argue that conditions exist that facilitate low participation.”
He continued: “There are two conditions that indicate low participation. First of all, the major poll is leading and it seems like it’s obvious what’s going to happen. Second, there are only small differences between the two largest parties, so it doesn’t really matter who wins anyway. “We can add to this the fact that none of the main party leaders are popular or charismatic, which is why Farage is able to make a splash.”
University-educated people are most likely not to vote, with a staggering 60 per cent planning to stay away from polling stations, according to Techne UK.
This could be a rare increase for the Conservatives, as students are much more likely to vote Labor than they are.
But among young voters who do decide to vote, Labor leads the Conservatives by a margin of 54 per cent to 14 per cent.
The findings show that only a small number of people (9 percent) did not vote because they did not like their local candidate; This shows that the national picture has much more influence than usual.
Among retirees (over 64) who were most likely to abstain, 37 percent of respondents said it was because they disliked both parties.
Meanwhile, one in three less educated people will not vote because they feel their vote is not being counted.
Meanwhile, after controversy over the party’s shift to the right, its support for Israel and its abandonment of left-wing candidates, previous Labor voters are likely to abstain (54 per cent) because they dislike the policies of both parties. In particular, Britain’s largest union, Unite, announced this week that it would not approve the Labor Party’s manifesto.
Michela Morizzo, chief executive of Techne UK, warned that abstentionism would be so high that the voter profiles of the main parties would change.
He said: “There is no doubt that this election may deliver the lowest turnout in electoral history. The most important problem of voters who say they will not vote, whether young or old, is that they say they cannot trust any political party or politician.
“This issue of trust, which means breaking the agreement between voters and those who represent them, is the main reason why stay-at-home non-voters received the largest share of electoral votes ever in this election.
“We’ll see in the coming weeks, but probably only [whoever] He is really convinced which party deserves his vote, he will go to vote. This means it is not a positive scenario for the Conservatives. “Time and polls will tell,” he said.
Ms Morizzo added: “The risk of low turnout is very high because there is abstention among those who voted for the Conservative Party and those who have lost their confidence, which risks contributing to traditional abstentionism, that is, the most vulnerable social classes. “The polls show that the Conservative electorate is very different from what it was in 2019 We were able to find an identity set.”
Luke Tryl, from campaign organization More in Common, warned that a lack of belief that political parties offer solutions to solve Britain’s problems is at the root of voter skepticism and apathy.
He said: “The big question is: Does the time for a mood shift mean more people want to get out and vote, or does the widespread sense of apathy and skepticism mean more people decide not to bother?
“What is absolutely true from our focus group discussions is that few people are confident that whoever wins will be able to solve the challenges facing ‘broken’ Britain.”
An Electoral Commission spokesman said: “The general election is an important opportunity for people to express their views and registering is the first step to the polls. It is quick and simple to apply and with less than two weeks until the application deadline, time is of the essence.
“All voters must register before midnight on June 18 to participate, and those planning to vote at the polls must check that they have an accepted form of identification to receive their ballot. Anyone unable or unwilling to vote at a polling station in Great Britain can apply to vote by post by 5pm on 19 June, or to vote by proxy (if someone votes on your behalf) by 5pm on 26 June. Once you complete these tasks, you will be ready to cast your vote on July 4th.”