A new study has found that extreme wind and rain could lead to bigger and worse desert locust outbreaks, while human-caused climate change is likely to intensify weather patterns and cause higher outbreak risks.
The desert locust, a short-horned species found in some dry regions of northern and eastern Africa, the Middle East, and southern Asia, is a migratory insect that travels long distances in swarms of millions and damages crops, causing famine and food insecurity. . A one square kilometer swarm consists of 80 million locusts, which can consume enough food products to feed 35,000 people in a day. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization describes it as “the world’s most devastating migratory pest”.
The study, published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, said these outbreaks “will become increasingly difficult to prevent and control” in a warming climate.
Xiaogang He, an author of the study and an assistant professor at the National University of Singapore, said more frequent and severe extreme weather events resulting from climate change could add unpredictability to locust outbreaks.
But he hoped the study could help countries understand and address “the impacts of climate variability on locust dynamics, particularly in the context of their implications for agricultural productivity and food security” and called for better regional and continental cooperation between countries and control bodies to respond. Quickly create early warning systems.
To assess the risk of locust outbreaks in Africa and the Middle East and its connection to climate change, scientists analyzed desert locust outbreaks from 1985 to 2020 using the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Locust Hub data tool. They created and used a data-driven framework to study the insects’ patterns to find what might cause outbreaks over long distances.
They found that 10 countries, including Kenya, Morocco, Niger, Yemen and Pakistan, experienced the most locust outbreaks among the 48 affected countries.
The worst desert locust outbreak in 25 years hit East Africa in 2019 and 2020, when the insects destroyed hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland and damaged crops, trees and other plants, affecting food security and livelihoods.
Elfatih Abdel-Rahman, a scientist at the International Center for Insect Physiology and Ecology, who was not part of the research, said widespread desert locust outbreaks caused by climate change will significantly threaten livelihoods in affected areas as food production decreases and food increases. Price:% p.
Researchers also found a strong link between the size of desert locust outbreaks and weather and terrain conditions such as air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and wind. Desert locusts are more likely to invade arid areas that experience sudden heavy rainfall, and the number of insects in an outbreak is greatly affected by weather conditions.
El Niño, a recurring, natural climate phenomenon that affects weather worldwide, has also been strongly linked to larger and worse desert locust outbreaks.
University of Delaware entomology professor Douglas Tallamy, who was not part of the research, said erratic weather patterns and precipitation triggered sudden increases in vegetation, resulting in massive population growth in grasshoppers.
“As this variability increases, it is reasonable to predict that locust outbreaks will also increase,” Tallamy said.
The study is “yet another example of what should be a very strong wake-up call that societies around the world need to come together to reduce climate change and its impacts, while also implementing strategies in response to global events such as increasing desert threats.” grasshoppers,” said Paula Shrewsbury, an entomology professor at the University of Maryland. Shrewsbury was not involved in the study.
Particularly vulnerable areas such as Morocco and Kenya remain high risk, but locust habitats have expanded since 1985 and will continue to grow by at least 5% by the end of the 21st century, projected to western India and western central Asia, the study found. .
He gives the example of the Rub’ al Khali, or Empty Quarter, a desert in the southern Arabian Peninsula; A place that was historically rare for desert locust outbreaks but later became a hotspot. There were locust outbreaks in the desert in 2019, following uncontrolled breeding following hurricanes that filled the desert with freshwater lakes.
Major locust outbreaks can have major financial impacts. According to the World Bank, the cost of responding to the locust plague in West Africa from 2003 to 2005 was more than $450 million. It was stated that the epidemic caused an estimated $2.5 billion in crop damage.
Countries affected by desert locust outbreaks are already grappling with climate-induced extremes such as droughts, floods and heat waves, and potentially increasing locust risks in these regions could worsen existing challenges, said study author Xiaogang.
“Failure to address these risks could further strain food production systems and increase the severity of global food insecurity,” he said.
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