Rishi Sunak is predicted to be the first prime minister to lose his seat in a general election.
A major opinion poll for The Telegraph found the Conservatives were also on track to fall to just 53 seats, with nearly three-quarters of the Cabinet not voting.
According to Savanta and Electoral Calculus poll analysis, the Liberal Democrats will fall just behind the Conservative Party with 50 MPs, leaving them within striking distance of becoming the official opposition.
When Sir Keir Starmer becomes prime minister, Labor is expected to reach 516 seats and a Commons majority of 382 (twice what Sir Tony Blair won in 1997).
Meanwhile, Reform is expected to pick up zero seats despite a surge in polls. For recently returned Reform leader Nigel Farage, it would mean an eighth consecutive defeat as a parliamentary candidate.
According to the poll, the SNP is predicted to fall from 48 MPs in 2019 to just eight MPs and Labor will again be the dominant party in Scotland, as it was under Sir Tony.
The poll shows the Conservative Party’s warnings about Labor’s “super majority” are correct. It also reveals the extent of voters’ disappointment with the Conservatives and shows the uncertain path the party will take in the coming years.
This is the first poll of its kind to predict Labor will win more than 500 seats. No other poll predicted the Conservatives would win so few seats.
The survey, conducted in Savanta for The Telegraph, consulted nearly 18,000 people between June 7 and June 18, recording their views in the final two weeks of the election campaign.
The analysis comes from a method called Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification, or MRP, which allows pollsters to take poll results and predict outcomes in individual seats.
Simply put, it involves speaking to many more people than a typical survey (about 10 times more) and delving into demographic details of both respondents and voters.
More than 100 seats are predicted to be won by such a narrow margin that the pollster believes these seats can still be won. A small improvement in the Conservative Party’s vote share could have a significant impact on the total number of seats.
But the results, announced just two weeks before the election, make it clear that the Conservative Party is facing a defeat of historic proportions due to disappointed voters.
Other poll analysis in recent weeks has shown the Conservative Party falling significantly, sometimes below 100 seats. But none of them performed this poorly.
According to Savanta, this statement reveals Labor’s lead over the Conservatives; this rate is slightly higher than other recent MRP surveys, at 21 percentage points.
Savanta’s predicted voting intent has Labor on 44 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent, Reform on 13 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent, the Greens on 4 per cent, the SNP on 3 per cent and Plaid Cymru on 1 per cent. percentage.
The fact that the Conservative Party’s national vote share is so low means that not only are they expected to lose a large number of seats to Labor, but they are also expected to lose to the Liberal Democrats in many other seats.
Winning just 53 MPs would be the Conservatives’ worst result in modern history. This would be less than a third of the 165 members they had when New Labor came to power in 1997.
The modern Conservative Party’s previous lowest seat count was 131 in 1906. The worst result for the Conservative predecessors, the Conservatives, was in 1754, when 106 seats were won.
This would also represent a significant drop from 2019, when the Conservative Party won 365 MPs under Boris Johnson. This means the party holds only 15 percent of its 2019 seats.
Mr Sunak is widely predicted to lose his seat in Richmond to Labor, but it is one of those races Savanta said was still in the balance given the close margins.
If such a thing existed, this would be a moment in history. According to the Institute of Government, no prime minister has lost his seat in a general election.
Arthur Balfour is the only prime minister who comes close to this. He resigned as prime minister in December 1905 and officially became leader of the opposition when he lost his seat in elections in early 1906.
The predicted outcome will also have a significant impact on who might follow Mr Sunak as Conservative Party leader; Because in case of a defeat, it is estimated that many of those who are said to be candidates next month will lose their seats.
Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, former home secretary Suella Braverman and former immigration secretary Robert Jenrick lost their seats on this prediction.
So did Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Home Secretary James Cleverly; This means that three of the four major offices of state owners will be erased. Fourth, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron is not an MP.
According to Savanta’s analysis, the reform will not win any seats, but there may be an additional element of doubt given the recent rapid changes in the party’s profile.
Mr Farage became Reform leader just days before this vote began and has seen a surge in his votes over the last two weeks. His impact on his current seat of Clacton is also difficult to predict from national polls.
The increase in votes for reform means that Savanta has only recently begun to put itself on the list of political parties offered as an option to survey respondents, and not just after choosing “other”.
Plaid Cymru will contest four seats. The Greens will get zero seats. Given the electoral difficulties due to party differences in Northern Ireland, seat projections are not made.
Two more MRP survey analyzes were released on Wednesday. The Conservative Party was given 108 MPs by YouGov and 155 MPs by More in Common; This underlined how small changes in vote share can have significant effects. More in Common gave Labor a 16-point lead over the Conservatives, as opposed to Savanta’s 21 points.
