The election Rishi Sunak is now calling is almost certain to have a decisive outcome, but it will not be a real turning point in British politics. Rather, it is the last stand of a passing order that is coming under increasing attack from both sides of the new political spectrum.
Unless a miracle occurs, the Conservative Party will suffer a catastrophic and crushing defeat. Currently the intense betting market is on whether they will perform worse than the previous low of 156 seats (out of 670 seats) in 1906. Serious bets are being made that they will get fewer than 100 seats.
This sentiment is due not only to Labour’s huge lead in the polls, but also to the suggestion that there will be large-scale tactical voting; This leaves many seemingly safe seats vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats as well as Labour. This result will not reflect any enthusiasm for Labor or Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves’ agenda.
In this respect, there is a clear contrast with 1997 and 1945. The dominant feeling among voters (probably leading to the low turnout) is fatigue and disdain for the entire political and media class, but a visceral hostility and ennui towards the Conservative Party. In many ways this makes it more like 1906; This is something Keir Starmer and the Labor Party need to keep in mind.
This will therefore be a decisive election with a clear and overwhelming verdict that the Conservatives have been in power for fourteen years, but with no real enthusiasm for the alternative. It will not be a re-run election that reveals a new and transformed political landscape and voting pattern.
But we had such an election just five years ago, in 2019. So what happened? In the years leading up to 2019, there was a realignment of the electorate as the old economic issue lost importance and was replaced by the new issue of nationalism versus cosmopolitan globalism.
In 2019, the Conservative Party turned to this realignment and won large numbers of new voters in parts of the country they had previously been unable to reach. This was thanks to promises to deliver Brexit, level the North and Midlands as we moved away from free markets, and control and reduce immigration.
They simultaneously retained voters who combined cosmopolitanism (Remain voters) with support for the free market because they had the advantage of facing Jeremy Corbyn.
If the Conservatives had followed through, the new alignment that emerged in 2019 would have been reinforced this time. The Conservatives could make further gains in the North and Midlands, but they would lose seats in the suburban south-east and South West to both Labor and the Liberal Democrats. With the Conservatives becoming a moderate national populist party, the result would be much tighter and the new alliance and division would become even clearer.
This of course did not happen. The political and media class refused to accept the new alignment and the promises of the 2019 manifesto were simply ignored, while Starmer abandoned the popular parts of Corbyn’s agenda (Left economics) and the unpopular part (radical anti-Western foreign policy). ). This is the reason for the deep disappointment of many voters.
In the case of the Conservative Party, media figures, politicians and donors have all refused to follow the logic of the 2019 election, seeing it as a one-off produced by Brexit rather than a realignment.
This happened in two ways. Some rejected nationalism and cultural conservatism while continuing to promote a form of technocratic liberalism in economics. Others accepted nationalism but rejected the idea of things like leveling off and immigration controls in favor of a resurgent free-market radicalism.
This combination, represented by Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, alienated two-thirds of the 2019 voting coalition, leaving them with a pro-Thatcher minority. Refusing to accept the inevitable loss of one-third of the 2019 electoral coalition and trying to expand the other third meant they lost both.
This, coupled with fatigue after fourteen years in office and a refusal to acknowledge or even address the increasing collapse and general uselessness of much of the British state, means they are doomed.
On 5 July, there will be many who argue for the resumption of normal services following the period of populist chaos caused by David Cameron’s decision to hold a Brexit referendum. This would be a huge and disastrously wrong decision (for those who do this).
The 1906 elections can give a preliminary idea about the future. The massive Liberal majority became the last great holdout of the old Gladstonian liberalism. They won by a huge margin because the Conservatives (Unionists) were completely divided on Tariff Reform and were very unpopular after a long tenure in office.
Just four years later, in 1910, they lost their majority to the resurgent and now united Conservative Party (while the Tariff Reformers triumphed) and became dependent on the Irish Parliamentary Party. A similar situation will occur in the next Parliament.
Keir Starmer will almost certainly win an overwhelming majority, but will find, as the Liberals did after 1906, that his support is broad but superficial and driven by disgust with the Conservatives rather than any real loyalty. Concerns about issues such as immigration, national sovereignty in a world of globalized rules and the various imbalances in the UK economy that led to a reorientation of voters ahead of 2019 will not go away.
Because of this realignment and the refusal of much of our political class to acknowledge it and address it (from both sides), there is now a huge gap or gap in British politics. This is for a party that is nationalist and anti-globalisation, traditionally patriotic, anti-immigration, culturally traditionalist and Left-wing on the economy.
It’s the kind of party that’s on the rise all over Europe, but there’s no party here offering it other than the SDP (still a fringe party) and George Galloway’s Labor Party (blocked in his case by the radical anti-Western foreign party). policy positions).
There is also space for a party offering a reasonable version of the opposing position, but this space is currently overcrowded.
Currently, approximately 35 percent of voters are effectively unrepresented. Many will abstain on July 4th. This situation will not last long.
Following defeat, the Conservative Party will either accept the new alliance, become staunchly nationalistic and move away from free markets, or will either split or be replaced by a new political force on the populist Right.
It may take time, but the politics of the 1980s is now a dead end for the Right in Britain. Meanwhile, a Labor government with a large majority will soon become very unpopular, as it disappoints its supporters (inevitably given the difficulties it will face) and does not address the kinds of issues that are driving the new harmony.
Like the Liberals after 1906, they will find themselves under pressure from both sides; on the one hand, the more consistently nationalist Right, and on the other, various radicals and more influential and consistent liberals.
The election in July and the subsequent Parliament are the last stand of the political era created by the combination of Thatcher and Blair. Alternatives will emerge in the next Parliament.