All Donald Trump had to do in Georgia on Saturday was show up, put the tent together, and not fight with other Republicans. He could have money in the bag.
Instead, Trump attacked Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who is far more popular than he is. Early in his comments, Trump pointed to several recent high-profile murders in Atlanta, saying: “Atlanta is a killing field, and your governor needs to get off his ass and do something about it.”
Relating to: Name-calling and hyperbole: Trump continues fear-mongering at Georgia rally
Trump was just warming up. In between praising the three Republicans on the electoral college who are supposed to be impartial arbiters of election practices and repeating a bizarre, false and previously debunked claim that Al Capone faces lesser charges than he does, Trump launched into an 11-minute tirade about Kemp and the secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, and heckled the attorney general, Chris Carr, out of spite. Neither man attended the rally.
Trump appeared at the Georgia convention center on Saturday, likely because it was a controlled, enclosed venue, unlike the open-air staging area where he was shot three weeks ago. The Secret Service reportedly advised him to stop holding outdoor rallies.
The facility is also owned by Georgia State University, a state institution. Georgia law requires that any state facility used by a political candidate be offered to opponents on the same terms.
And that offer was presented to Vice President Kamala Harris last Tuesday, and she filled the stadium with supporters. (And yes, it was packed, and no, people didn’t start leaving en masse after Megan Thee Stallion’s brief performance before Harris took the stage.)
Trump’s appearance was also packed, at least until an hour into his 90-minute, garrulous speech, when people were heading for the door. Trump’s speeches are long-winded, garrulous and often offensive. It’s a game, and the Maga faithful enjoy the show.
But Maga is not a majority in Georgia, or anywhere. Republicans cannot win in that state when traditional conservatives abandon the party, as Herschel Walker’s Trump-influenced U.S. Senate challenge to Raphael Warnock two years ago demonstrated.
Georgia’s split-vote conservatives love Kemp and are indifferent at best toward Trump, and Trump showed them no love Saturday.
“If it weren’t for me, he wouldn’t be your governor. I think everybody knows that,” Trump boasted, describing them as disloyal.
“Governors Kemp and Raffensperger are doing everything they can to make it harder for Republicans to win in 2024. Why are they doing it? I don’t know. They have something on their mind. You know, they have a little something on their mind. Kemp is very bad for the Republican party.”
Then Trump went after Kemp’s wife, She told people that her husband had put his name forward as a candidate for president in the Republican presidential primary this year. “Didn’t I win his support? I had nothing to do with it. He went off the rails somewhere. And you know what? Your numbers in Georgia are so average. Your economic numbers, your crime numbers, all of your numbers are so average. You can do so much better, and you’re going to do so much better with a better governor.”
He goes on and on. He complained that Kemp didn’t support the ticket, that he wanted Trump to lose, and that Kemp had failed to act in some way to rein in the prosecution of Fulton District Attorney Fani Willis, showing no concern for the limits of the law. “Kemp doesn’t want to end it. Because he’s a bad man. He’s a disloyal man. And he’s a very average governor.”
To be fair, Georgia’s economic and crime numbers are average. But Georgia’s economic growth has outpaced U.S. growth since Kemp took office, which Republicans say is because he was the first governor to end lockdowns during the pandemic. Georgia is one of 17 states with a Fitch AAA bond rating. The state now has $16 billion in savings because state revenue has consistently exceeded estimates, an unprecedented amount that has been something of a political headache for conservatives.
By Republican standards, Georgia is extraordinarily well governed.
So Kemp could win Georgia while Trump and Trump-lite candidates lose. Kemp beat Stacey Abrams, who has deep fundraising pockets and a national media profile in 2022, by seven points. On the same ballot, Walker, who has universal name recognition in Georgia, lost to Warnock by three points.
Under supercharged turnout, that 10-point margin is the difference between winning and losing Georgia, a measure of Maga power here. It’s why Trump narrowly lost that state in 2020 even as other Republicans won statewide races.
Those who have been watching closely know the math. Every year, the demographic shift from people moving to the state shifts Georgia about half a point toward Democrats. But Biden had lost much of the support of Kemp-Warnock split-ticket Republicans. Biden trailed by six points in Georgia polls.
If Harris wins back those voters, Trump could lose Georgia by as much as four points, shrugging off expectations that black voter support for both candidates will increase.
“Trump lost the state by less than 12,000 votes in 2020, and more than 30,000 people refused to vote for president,” conservative Georgia talk show host Erick Erickson wrote Sunday.
“It’s unwise to attack a man whose ground game you need to win in 2024 and who supports you. Luckily for Trump, Kemp is no less of a man. Unfortunately for Trump, he’s reminding the 40,000-plus Georgia voters who won’t vote for him in 2020 why they didn’t vote for him.”
Trump gave his rivals short audio recordings on Saturday of what he thinks of Georgia and its popular governor, and how he expects the state’s election board to overturn an election he could lose. Those recordings will be replayed in YouTube ads on every iPhone between the Fox Theater and Lake Lanier for the next 91 days.
Trump can’t control himself when it comes to Atlanta, even with the state and his political future at stake
And Republican politicians know it.
“Trump has a political death wish on Georgia,” wrote political messaging expert Frank Luntz, noting that Trump told Republican voters in January 2021 to cancel the Senate runoffs because he claimed the Georgia election was fraudulent.
“It’s so stupid to attack popular governor Brian Kemp, who defeated his handpicked GOP primary opponent 70-30. Republicans can’t win if they’re divided, but Trump keeps dividing them.”
Within hours, statements began to come from Republican leaders.
“My focus is on winning this November and saving our country from Kamala Harris and the Democrats — not making petty personal insults, attacking Republicans, or dwelling on the past,” Kemp wrote in a brief statement about X. “You should do the same, leave Mr. President and my family out of it.”
“Governor Kemp has been a proven leader, consistent conservative and champion for Georgia families,” said Rep. Jon Burns, Georgia’s spokesman. “We will continue to work together to make Georgia the best place to live, work and raise a family.”
Trump can’t help himself when it comes to Atlanta, even with the state and his political future at stake. In 2017, shortly after taking office, Trump attacked the late, beloved Atlanta congressman John Lewis, describing the city as “crime-ridden.”
It was comments like these that boosted Democrats’ turnout in the 2020 election and led to their loss of the state.
However, Trump described Atlanta in similar terms before surrendering to racketeering and election interference charges in Atlanta last year. “Murder and other Violent Crimes have reached levels never seen before,” he wrote, claiming that Willis “allowed Murder and other Violent Crimes to GREATLY INCREASE.”
He wrote that Atlanta was experiencing a “MAJOR WAVE OF MURDER” and that Willis “oversaw one of the greatest HOMICIDES OF HOMICIDE AND VIOLENT CRIME IN AMERICAN HISTORY.”
None of this was true. All of it was frustrating, in ways that would have cost Trump at the polls.
“The state is currently leaning toward the Republican Party and Trump, but Trump has 90 days to make things worse,” Erickson wrote.