Farmer confidence in England and Wales has fallen to an all-time low, with four fifths of farmers saying they have been adversely affected by months of wet weather, industry leaders said.
According to a survey by the National Farmers Union (NFU), production in all areas of agriculture (agriculture, animal husbandry, poultry, horticulture and dairy) is expected to decrease next year.
Nearly 800 farmer and grower members were surveyed between November 21 and January 5 about the challenges they face and their expectations for the year ahead.
The results, published on Monday, showed that both short- and medium-term confidence – farmers’ views about next year and the next three years – were at their lowest levels since the annual survey began in 2010.
Farmers involved in agriculture and animal husbandry were found to be particularly pessimistic about both.
According to the NFU, brutal rainfall conditions in the autumn played a big role; 82% of respondents said their farm businesses were suffering from negative impacts.
However, heavy rain and storms from January continued to affect England until April; This means that if the survey were conducted today, the results would likely be worse.
NFU president Tom Bradshaw said the extreme weather was part of a “perfect storm of events coming together”.
“I don’t think anyone can underestimate the impact of the extreme weather conditions over the last 18 months,” he said.
He said conditions had also compounded other problems for English and Welsh farmers, such as rising costs, inflationary pressures, labor shortages and cheap imports.
The results of the survey show that the largest proportion of farmers see the phasing out of the old EU Basic Payment Scheme and the transition to new subsidy schemes as an issue that will negatively affect their businesses in 2024.
In second place was the issue of high input costs such as fuel and fertilizer, which ranked highest in last year’s survey.
Meanwhile, concerns about farm gate prices (the price paid to farmers for their produce before transportation costs) have risen 10 percent this year.
The NFU warned that many farm businesses were at risk this year, citing figures from the Office for National Statistics that more than 8,000 farms were lost between 2019 and 2023.
The survey found 65 per cent of farmers said their profits had fallen or their businesses would not survive, compared to 50 per cent last year.
“Confidence has collapsed following months of devastating flooding, unsustainably high production costs and low market returns, and against a backdrop of reduced farm support as we transition to a new Domestic Agricultural Policy and associated farm support,” Mr Bradshaw said.
“Every business owner knows that without confidence and a steady cash flow, the business will struggle to reinvest and stay afloat.”
Experts have recently warned that lower yields in key crops could lead to higher food prices if losses cannot be offset by imports from a stronger global commodity market.
But Mr Bradshaw argued that relying on imports was “naive at best, foolish at worst” as climate change grows as a risk to food systems globally.
“Britain cannot afford to lose the ability to feed itself,” he said.
In its general election manifesto, the union listed the solutions that political parties will adopt to overcome the collapse in farmer confidence and secure domestic food production.
These include rewarding farmers fairly for their role in reducing flood risk, ensuring a smooth transition to new environmental schemes open to all farmers, and ensuring long-term, profitable food-producing businesses.
The association is also calling on politicians to establish minimum standards to promote fair and functioning supply chains and to establish basic production standards that apply to agri-food imports.
Mr Bradshaw said: “Farmers are at risk within the supply chain and with the huge fluctuations we have seen in input markets and output prices in recent years.
“This risk is becoming too high for many businesses to take and we now need solid foundations in place to support our food production for the future.”
Asked about voting sentiment among its members, he said rural votes were “still up for grabs,” adding that the demographic was looking for policies that would support profitable food production.
Agriculture minister Mark Spencer said: “I pay tribute to all our farmers and the hard work they do to put food on our tables every day.
“Supporting British farmers is central to this Government’s approach, including protecting the £2.4bn annual budget, ensuring fairness in our supply chains and launching the biggest ever grant offer for farmers in 2024.
“Our farmers have faced one of the wettest periods on record in the UK and I have seen first-hand the impact this has had.
“The Farming Recovery Fund offers support to farmers to help make up for uninsurable damage and we are looking at how we can extend the scheme and improve support for those affected.
“I will continue to listen and work with farmers to see where further support can be offered during this challenging time.”