By late January, this had become a routine. A Super Bowl berth is at stake. Tony Romo was talking on the phone like a toddler three Mountain Dews deep. Patrick Mahomes is leading the Kansas City Chiefs to the AFC championship game.
“You can’t doubt No. 15,” Romo said last weekend after the Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round. Who? At this point, going to the AFC championship game without Mahomes would be like going to the Oscars without Martin Scorsese.
It’s hard to even remember the times before Mahomes. Before the highlight shots and Houdini-like playmaking. Before the Chiefs, Andy Reid, Chris Jones, Travis Kelce and Mahomes were the main characters on Sundays. In the 40 years before Mahomes became the Chiefs’ starting quarterback, KC was 4-15 in the playoffs. Since taking over, Mahomes is 13-3 in the postseason and has made a record six straight appearances in the AFC Championship Game.
Relating to: I was at the Lions’ last NFC championship game in 1992. It didn’t end well.
The Chiefs’ trip to Baltimore this weekend will be the team’s toughest championship test yet. Even in the infamous ’13 seconds’ matchup with the Bills, Mahomes was on an even playing field. He had a star-studded receiving corps and could face another all-world offense.
This year will be different. The Ravens have a great quarterback complemented by a great defense. And the Chiefs are no juggernaut. The defense is the team’s best unit these days, but KC’s offense has been disrupted throughout the season. By Reid and Mahomes’ typical standards, he was downright miserable. By midway through the season, everything in the passing game other than the Mahomes-Kelce connection had reached red alert levels. They finished the regular season 11th in EPA per game; it’s a measure of top-to-bottom efficiency. They scored on just 39% of their drives, placing them 10th in the league and falling outside the top three for the first time in the Mahomes era.
In some ways, this was part of the team’s long-term vision. Given the constraints of the salary cap, building a team that can maximize the status quo while remaining competitive for a decade requires a dance of uncertainty. KC looked to the Brady-Belichick model to continue their dynasty run. Over the past few seasons, they have poured resources into the defense and offensive lines, theorizing that Mahomes could single-handedly elevate an undercooked group of offensive weapons. They chased throws at receiving spots and mid-round picks with the assumption that anyone could shine next to their quarterback. They were hoping to squeeze 34-year-old Kelce, Mahomes’ favorite target, into one last year before his inevitable decline.
This team-building philosophy partially worked. The Chiefs have one of the toughest and youngest defenses in the league. But it was also a disappointing season for Mahomes, the worst statistical season of his career. The offense was often one-dimensional; Aside from rookie Rashee Rice, there was a rotation of receivers who vanished like vampires smelling garlic.
Heading into December, the Chiefs’ offense continued to routinely falter. They looked well below championship standard. The receiver room, which entered the season as the weakest group among all contenders, led to declines across the league. Kelce was having a bad year by his high standards. The surest thing behind Kelce was Isiah Pacheco and his running game.
The solution: pivot the offense, ditching the old bombs and approaching a bigger, more hurtful style. Mahomes has toned down some of his timeless artistry and moved towards a more calculated approach. Since Kelce was the focal point of the opposing defense, he distributed the ball more even when his opposing players were struggling. At the end of the regular season, he ranked 38th out of 41 eligible quarterbacks in average air yards. Patrick Mahomes – PATRICK MAHOMES – He was forced to play like Jimmy Garoppolo and embraced it.
Given those restrictions, it’s remarkable that the Chiefs are here again. It wasn’t Mahomes’ the best season but was one of the most impressive.
For the first time in his career, Mahomes had to run the offense alone. He stepped up his game when it mattered most. He was third in EPA per play on his third down this season. Her The two best individual trips of the year? At home against the Miami Dolphins in the wildcard round and away at Buffalo last week. hasn’t done anything yet turnover-worthy shot in the play-offs.
That it all feels so normal is a sign of Mahomes’ unique greatness. Like Michael Jordan in the mid-90s, Mahomes’ excellence has become the norm. We expect it to reach new heights every year, so it feels like a disappointment when it’s just great. It’s one thing if he can lead this group to a league title. Leading them to victories over the Dolphins and Bills in the playoffs is among his best accomplishments.
If there was ever a year to beat the Chiefs before the AFC Championship Game, this was it. If there was one team, it was the Bills. They finally forced the Chiefs to play at home in the postseason. And it didn’t make any sense. Come January, it was Playoff Mahomes, as always.
He hasn’t been a one-man show, but you don’t need too many fingers to count the number of other quarterbacks who could navigate this season’s murky waters. Even this season’s MVP candidates have plateaued in years where they didn’t have an A-list supporting cast.
Mahomes will need to create something special to keep up with the Ravens and the Lamar Jackson freight train on Sunday. And he’ll face Baltimore’s defensive wizard Mike Macdonald; He uses a style that has given Mahomes trouble in the past.
If the Chiefs can pull off Sunday’s loss in Baltimore, it will be another big moment for the quarterback. Mahomes has shown that he can take a ho-hum offense and drag it into striking distance of the promised land.