Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is rumored to be dropping out of the presidential race this week, with his team reportedly courting both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump for a possible partnership.
RFK Jr.’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, said publicly that the candidate “could drop out right now and join forces with Donald Trump.”
RFK Jr. was reportedly set to resign on Friday after FEC filings showed that campaign donations did not cover expenses.
But according to the polls, where will voters go whether they support third-party candidates Trump, Harris, or neither?
RFK Jr. has lost much of his support
Polls for RFK Jr. are notoriously difficult to determine, with significant differences across polls — a situation that is often the case for smaller, third-party candidates.
Unlike Democrats or Republicans, it can be difficult to identify specific characteristics or demographics that tie those who voted for RFK Jr. together, especially because those votes are spread out across the United States.
So what do we know about its voters?
Since Harris entered the race, RFK Jr. has lost significant momentum in the polls and has never recovered.
Just before Biden dropped out, RFK Jr. was getting between 8.5% and 10% of the national vote. But since July 21, he’s been hovering around just 5% of the vote, and that number appears to be decreasing.
So what happened? This decline can be explained in part by voters generally turning to third-party candidates for reasons of lack of a “better option” and wanting a fresh face. With Harris replacing Biden, some of those calls for change have been answered.
So, who’s left?
The latest YouGov/Economist poll, conducted in part since the Democratic National Convention (August 17-20), shows RFK at just 3% of the vote, with more young people supporting the independent candidate, with 5% of those under 30 planning to vote for RFK Jr.
Overall, his favorability as a public figure is relatively average, at -8% unfavorable overall. That’s better than both Donald Trump (-10 unfavorable) and JD Vance (-12 unfavorable).
According to a YouGov poll, his favorability is highest among Hispanic voters, at +4.
Third party voters are unpredictable
The big question is how many Democratic or Republican votes would be freed up by RFK Jr.’s withdrawal.
In the YouGov poll, only 1% of Democrats said they would vote for RFK Jr., while 3% of Republicans (including leaners) did. On average, slightly more Republicans have supported him so far. But the polls haven’t been able to clearly determine whether Biden or Trump 2020 voters will support Kennedy; polls show a mix of both.
Various polls show little or no change on average when Harris and Trump face off (without third-party candidates), but when there is a slight increase, the increase is +1 or +2 points in Trump’s favor, not the other way around.
Going to a third-party candidate often means that the voter is disillusioned with the current election or situation, so it is difficult to say whether those same voters will return to their previous party allegiance or be more likely to do the opposite.
Additionally, 6% of people say they don’t know who they’ll vote for right now or don’t plan to vote at all in November. Some of the RFK Jr. voters who are unhappy with Harris or Trump are likely to abstain from voting.
But others, especially the more activist group of RFK Jr. voters (anti-vaxxer, distrustful of government, and pro-gun), will still want their voices heard.
Stronger margins in New Mexico, Michigan and Nevada
Where RFK Jr.’s decision may matter most is in the swing states.
It can be difficult to determine RFK Jr.’s voters and where exactly they are concentrated, so the numbers should be taken with a pinch of salt due to polling restrictions. But a Refield and Wilton poll of 10 states (Aug. 15) shows RFK Jr. with a wider lead in some states than others.
In particular, it has the strongest support in New Mexico (8%), Florida (5%), Michigan (5%), and Nevada (5%).
The same poll showed Harris ahead in New Mexico, tied with Trump in Nevada and Michigan, and Trump ahead in his home state of Florida.
While it’s unclear where RFK Jr. voters will swing directly, higher margins could have the capacity to turn the tide in those states and others.
If and when he makes up his mind, RFK Jr.’s support for Trump could add some momentum to the former president’s flagging national numbers, though it remains to be seen whether RFK Jr.’s voters will line up behind the convicted felon.