Editor’s Note: Jaime M. Yassif, Ph.D., is vice president of Global Biological Policy and Programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit global security organization focused on reducing nuclear and biological threats that endanger humanity. The opinions expressed in this comment are his own. To read more views on CNN.
The headlines are alarming: “Highly pathogenic bird flu found in dairy cattle in Kansas, Texas.” “Bird flu was detected in a dairy worker.” “First human case of bird flu in Texas raises alarm.” Could the next pandemic start like this? So far, U.S. officials say they believe there is minimal risk to the public from the latest iteration of bird flu.
But just weeks after the new bird flu was detected in cows, with growing evidence of potential spread among mammals, many of us in the biosecurity and pandemic preparedness community believe leaders in capitals around the world must work to get ahead of it. A new public health threat if the H5N1 flu virus gains the ability to spread among humans.
Human transmission has also been documented: Earlier this month, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that a second person in the US had tested positive for bird flu. The first human case of H5N1 in the US involved a poultry worker in Colorado in 2022, and the more recent case involved a dairy worker in Texas who had direct contact with infected cattle. Both human cases had mild symptoms, were treated and fully recovered, but previous cases of bird flu in other parts of the world were much more severe and resulted in death in many cases. What we don’t know, and what scientists are concerned about, is whether the virus will evolve to spread more easily through human populations.
The first case of H5N1 virus in cattle was reported in March, and direct cow-to-cow transmission has not yet been confirmed., The occurrence of cases in cattle in at least six states suggests that cows may be transmitting the flu virus directly among themselves as they are transported to different farms, rather than being infected from sick birds.
Facing uncertainty about what will happen next, many scientists say stepped-up government measures are necessary because of the risk of bird flu turning into a pandemic. Many researchers believe that Covid-19 may have started in a similar way: by first gaining the ability to spread between mammals that came into contact with humans to spread from animals to humans, and then evolving to transmit directly between humans.
The United States and other governments around the world need to take H5N1 seriously and show that we have learned the lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic that has disrupted our lives for years. Instead of a “wait and see” approach, urgent steps should be taken to prevent this risk.
In the short term, governments should act now to mobilize the capacity at their disposal to protect against the uncontrolled spread of the H5N1 bird flu virus if it begins to spread among humans. This includes funding research into vaccines likely to be effective against the virus, increased surveillance of animals and people, and broader emergency response planning.
It is encouraging to hear that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is stepping up its surveillance systems and supporting testing of potential vaccine candidates that may be more effective against this strain of avian flu than the current limited stocks of H5N1 vaccines that have been developed for years. before.
Going forward, it will be critical for the human and animal health sectors, including the CDC and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, to work together on biosurveillance, including developing a common approach to monitoring human and animal populations and exchanging data. Follow how the virus evolves.
Additionally, if the U.S. government succeeds in finding an effective vaccine for the new bird flu, it will also be important to make plans to quickly produce the vaccine so it is ready for use if needed. Additionally, the United States and other governments should consider how to update their current pandemic influenza response plans and act accordingly if H5N1 begins to spread among humans.
To prepare for a possible bird flu outbreak, governments around the world need to take these steps now, even in the face of uncertainty. If they wait for the epidemic to be confirmed among people, it will be extremely difficult to prevent the uncontrolled spread of the virus.
It is also time to re-evaluate the long game and ensure that countries around the world have the capacity to detect and respond to future epidemics and outbreaks. According to the Global Health Security Index, there are significant gaps in countries’ ability to prepare for the pandemic.
During the Covid pandemic, we have witnessed first-hand that capacity matters when it comes to saving lives. Nearly all countries with strong pandemic preparedness capacity at the onset of Covid had lower death rates than countries that were less prepared, according to a study published last year by experts at the Brown University Pandemic Center, the Gates Foundation and NTI.
A wide range of capabilities have been shown to be effective, including disease detection systems, systems for the distribution of medical countermeasures, and public health infrastructure for the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Playing the long game means investing now to make sure countries have the capacity they need to respond to a worst-case H5N1 outbreak or prepare for the next one. Given the impact of Covid, it is deeply disappointing that national governments have failed to invest in the resources necessary to improve life-saving pandemic preparedness capacity. This doesn’t make any sense.
Federal funding for pandemic influenza in the United States falls far short of the amount we need to effectively combat this threat. Government experts have called for $1.15 billion in funding for pandemic flu for 2025, but the Biden administration has requested only $335 million. To make matters worse, Congress has made major cuts to pandemic preparedness funding as part of the ongoing appropriations process.
This is also an international problem. Most countries (even those with adequate resources) have not made financial investments to strengthen pandemic preparedness. The 2021 Global Health Security Index, which measures pandemic preparedness capacity at the national level and was co-developed by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and Economist Impact NTI, found that 155 of 195 countries have not allocated funds in the past three years to address pandemic threats (other than public health emergencies ) to improve capacity.
The White House recently announced a new Global Health Security Strategy that includes a commitment to work with 50 countries to improve pandemic preparedness capacity. This is a big step in the right direction, but the U.S. government and its partners will need to make sure they have the financial resources and political will to deliver on this promise.
Playing the long game also means supporting the World Bank Pandemic Fund, which is designed to invest in the long-term pandemic preparedness capacity of low- and middle-income countries. The fund has received $1.9 billion in committed funding from national governments, charities and other groups, but it makes grants to support valuable capacity-building efforts and will soon run out of funds. Experts estimate it will take about $10 billion a year for at least five years to provide funding that will allow countries to develop the infectious disease detection and response capacity needed to protect against pandemics. We must do better.
Covid has clearly demonstrated the risks of pandemics and unfortunately we have witnessed its deadly consequences in many parts of the world. Governments need to act quickly and decisively now to stem the growing H5N1 flu public health threat, while also investing in long-term capacity building to ensure the world is better prepared for the next pandemic.
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