The Met Office has dismissed reports of a heatwave next week as Britons try to hold on to hopes of warm weather finally arriving to brighten up their summer.
A number of independent weather forecast groups have claimed that temperatures could rise to 28C next Thursday, June 13, triggering a heatwave.
But the Met Office said reports of the heatwave were “not a good representation of the current forecast”.
Met Office spokesman Stephen Dixon told Yahoo News UK: “There is a high pressure signal from the west and south-west which will affect the weather over the weekend and early next week, which may reduce some of the northern showers, but this will likely only increase temperatures further.” return it to near average for this time of year.”
Clouds and rain will continue to push south and east this afternoon, followed by brighter but cooler conditions 🌧️ 🌥️
Heavy and stormy showers affecting parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland 🌦️ pic.twitter.com/ojNCIh4eXj
— Met Office (@metoffice) June 4, 2024
He said this week will see sunshine and showers, as well as “the possibility of mixed thunderstorm activity in the north.”
Dixon said: “Further south it will generally be drier, but even here temperatures will be slightly lower than in recent days.”
At the end of last month the Met Office dismissed reports that it could rain for seven weeks this summer.
Temperatures could reach as high as 23C in London and the South East on Tuesday, while this will drop into the low teens across much of the country as the week progresses.
In its long-term forecast for June 8-17, the Met Office said it was “unlikely for a more widely established spell to emerge next week”.
What is a heat wave?
The Met Office says a heatwave is “a period of prolonged hot weather relative to conditions expected in the region at that time of year and may be accompanied by high humidity.”
It said the UK heatwave threshold was met when a location recorded a period of “at least three consecutive days” in which daily maximum temperatures met or exceeded the heatwave temperature threshold.
The threshold varies by country or county; It ranges from 25C in Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the south-west of England to 27C on the south-east coast of England, reaching 28C in London and other inland areas in the south and south-east.
What causes a heat wave?
According to the Met Office, heatwaves are more common when high pressure is allowed to build in a particular area, usually in summer.
Because high-pressure systems move slowly, they can persist in an area for a long time, days or even weeks, bringing warm conditions.
The Met Office said: “They can occur in the UK due to the location of the jet stream, which is generally in the north of the UK in summer.
“This could lead to high pressure building over the UK, resulting in persistent dry and stagnant weather.”
The Met Office said that climate change makes heat waves more likely, and that due to the high concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the probability of heat waves occurring is 30 times higher than before the industrial revolution.
Is climate change making heat waves worse?
Many experts say climate change is increasing sweltering summer temperatures.
Dr D., a senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute on Climate Change at Imperial College London. Friederike Otto said in July 2022 that the rising temperatures facing the UK would not be so high if it were not for global warming.
“Every heat wave we have now has become more frequent, longer and hotter due to climate change,” he said. “Of course, every extreme weather event also has an element of chaotic natural variability of the weather system.
“Without climate change there would be high temperatures, but not as high as what we would see; whatever we see exactly, we know for sure that the weather would be cooler if it were not for climate change.”
Heat waves become more intense and frequent as overall temperatures are higher due to global warming, and so when weather systems such as summer high pressure occur, the heat they bring increases.
Here’s what the upcoming weather will be like for every part of the UK, according to the Met Office.
London and the South East
A mostly cloudy start with showers possible. Warm. In the afternoon, windy weather prevails, with mostly light rains, spreading irregularly towards the southeast. It gets drier than the northwest in the evening. Maximum temperature 23°C.
Wednesday will be sunny but with a chance of occasional light showers. The wind gets stronger in the afternoon, especially in coastal areas. Maximum temperature 19°C.
The weather is largely dry and sunny, but there is a chance of showers most days. There is a higher chance of showers on Thursday. Some temperatures are quite cool, especially at night. Breezy during the day.
South West
A rather cloudy and slightly damp start in places, otherwise largely dry and bright at first. It will be partly cloudy and occasionally rainy in the afternoon. Towards the evening it becomes clearer, cooler and a little more breezy. Maximum temperature 18°C.
A very cool start to Wednesday, followed by a dry day with sunny weather for everyone. The wind is easing a little, but it’s a little cooler than the last few days. Maximum temperature 15°C.
Dry off with sunny weather on Thursday. Maybe it will rain towards the south on Friday. Fairly cloudy but mostly dry on Saturday. Temperatures are close to normal and nights are cold.
midlands
A mostly dry start, followed by a locally heavy band of clouds and rain, will quickly drift southeastwards in the afternoon. It gets drier and brighter in the evening hours. I feel cooler and fresher. Maximum temperature 18°C.
A cool start on Wednesday, followed by a sunny and mostly dry day. A little shower is expected in the north. A fresh northwest breeze enhances the feeling of coolness. Maximum temperature 15°C.
Sunny and intermittent showers again on Thursday. Maybe it will rain towards the south on Friday. Fairly cloudy but mostly dry on Saturday. Temperatures are close to normal and nights are cold.
Northeast
The rain is moving south-east by morning, particularly heavy over the Pennines with strong winds at times. It is drier and brighter in the afternoon, and sunny weather prevails for a short time in the evening. Maximum temperature 16°C.
Sunny weather on Wednesday and showers that may be heavy at times. The wind gets stronger throughout the day, especially in and around showers. Maximum temperature 14°C.
During this period sunny weather and torrential rains are heavier and more frequent in the western hills. Some temperatures are quite cool, especially at night. Best conditions on the east coast.
Northwest
With a cloudy and humid start, a locally strong rain band will rapidly drift southeastwards across all regions throughout the day. After the evening hours, the weather gets brighter with intermittent showers. Cool and cooler and fresher feeling. Maximum temperature 16°C.
The strong northwest wind on Wednesday increases the coolness of the day. Sunny weather and scattered, locally heavy showers; these are most common in the north. Maximum temperature 13°C.
Sunny and intermittent showers again on Thursday. Maybe a band of rain blows south on Friday. Mostly cloudy and showery on Saturday. Temperatures are close to normal, with some nights quite cold.
Scotland
Very cloudy, occasionally heavy rain in the morning. This will leave a mix of bright or sunny skies and scattered showers for the rest of the day. The best of eastern sunlight. Maximum temperature 16°C.
Wednesday will bring another day of sunshine and scattered showers across the region, the best of dry, sunny weather in the east. Maximum temperature 13°C.
On Thursday, showers will ease in the evening hours. Showers and heavier rain on Friday, then easing again. Drier on Saturday with just the odd shower.
North Ireland
Early rain will clear to the southeast, leaving bright or sunny weather and intermittent showers, especially in the west. Fresh winds from the west are easing. Maximum temperature 15°C.
Wednesday will bring another day of sunshine and scattered showers; Although it may be stormy from time to time, it will ease towards the evening. Maximum temperature 14°C.
The coming days will be plagued by intermittent showers or occasional prolonged periods of rain, but there will still be some nice bright or sunny weather.
Wales
A mostly dry start, followed by a locally heavy band of clouds and rain, will quickly drift southeastwards in the afternoon. It gets drier and brighter in the evening hours. I feel cooler and fresher. Maximum temperature 15°C.
A cool start on Wednesday, followed by a sunny and mostly dry day. A little shower is expected in the north. A fresh northwest breeze enhances the feeling of coolness. Maximum temperature 13°C.
Sunny and intermittent showers again on Thursday. Maybe it will rain towards the south on Friday. Fairly cloudy but mostly dry on Saturday. Temperatures are close to normal and nights are cold.