When you read the lengthy final agreement of the COP28 United Nations climate conference in December 2023, you will go a long way before finding a strong, active verb. Lengthy descriptions of climate impacts reveal glaring gaps in countries’ current policies, with “worrying notes” and occasionally “significant concerns”. But while countries promised to take voluntary action, they were less willing to frame those promises as binding agreements in the final text.
Reactions to the outcome of COP28 were understandably mixed. Judging by the talks, the world was on better track to avoid catastrophic warming than it would have been without the 2015 Paris Agreement, but it was far from where it needed to be.
Even if all the promises made at COP28 are fulfilled, the world will still exceed Paris’s goal of keeping global warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial temperatures.
Politically, the agreement may be the best agreement nations can reach at a time of rising geopolitical tensions and under the leadership of the United Arab Emirates. UAE is a country of contradictions; An oil state with ambitions for renewable energy, eager to emerge on the global stage as a green champion, but also accused of colonization tactics in Africa.
Most headlines focused on the COP28 agreement’s first mention of fossil fuels. The convoluted language called for countries to “contribute” to a “move away from fossil fuels”, not to abandon fossil fuels, which the majority of countries support. This consensus, attended by an unprecedented number of energy industry lobbyists, was described by the most vulnerable countries as a series of loopholes.
The final agreement was largely written to secure the future of the natural gas industry. He cited natural gas as a necessary bridge fuel as renewable energy becomes more widespread; this claim was refuted by the International Energy Agency ahead of COP28. The agreement also reinforced the expectation that heavy subsidies for carbon capture and storage would continue; many energy analysts and economists have deemed it unscalable at a reasonable cost.
However, the UAE has banished some old slogans from the climate negotiations. It has broken the polarization of climate finance (the Global South expects the Global North to deliver on public financing promises) by focusing on private investment and putting tens of billions of dollars of its sovereign wealth into play. He hasn’t been able to persuade others to match his generosity, but there will be more pressure in 2024.
So what should we pay attention to in the coming months?
1. Turning new energy commitments into action
COP28 included significant commitments to the energy transition from fossil fuels, including tripling renewable energy capacity, improving energy efficiency and reducing methane emissions.
Now it is up to countries and companies to make progress. This will depend on investments and overcoming supply bottlenecks, new policies and, in the case of methane, import and export standards.
The new Global Cooling Commitment to reduce emissions from cooling by 68% while increasing access to cooling technology is becoming increasingly critical. Cooling demand is driving up energy demand around the world, especially in populous countries like India that are severely affected by extreme heat. Developing technologies that help billions of people most at risk and improve cold supply chains for food and medicine will require greater investment and greater prioritization by governments.
Watch for more cities appointing heat czars, adopting tree equity schemes to increase shade and cooling, and greater investment in cooling technologies to lead efforts to protect populations from extreme heat.
2. Implementation of innovations in the field of finance
COP28 saw major innovations in finance, including the UAE’s announcement of the Alterra Fund, a $30 billion commitment to mobilize private investment in developing countries.
The International Organization of Securities Commissions issued a strong statement supporting corporate sustainability disclosure standards and welcomed corporate integrity standards in voluntary carbon markets. Look for more countries to add rules to their “net zero emissions” commitments.
3. Using trade for climate
It is linked to trade, finance and investment, which COP28 brought to the center stage for the first time.
There are two things to look for in 2024. First, ask the World Trade Organization, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank to align their advice to governments on effective carbon pricing.
Second, although trade and climate negotiators have traditionally operated in different circles, they will need to work together to ensure that the trade system supports climate action. For example, ensuring that green products and services are not made more expensive than polluting alternatives.
4. Fixing carbon markets
2023 was a year of decline, with voluntary carbon markets questioning the effectiveness of investigations. COP28’s failure to advance agreements on carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement means these will be the focus in 2024.
In this case, while no deal is better than a bad deal, the delay means countries planning to use carbon markets to achieve net zero targets face uncertainty.
5. Provide more adaptation funding where needed
A global target for adaptation was agreed upon; A collective commitment to building resilience and adaptive capacity around the world was finally achieved, but negotiators left the details to be filled in over the next two years.
Top-down discussions, including locally driven efforts, will need to be initiated to ensure adaptation funding flows to where it is needed most. Work to make adaptation a much larger part of countries’ second-generation climate plans to be submitted to the UN before COP30.
6. Turning new food and agriculture commitments into action
The majority of the world’s countries (159) have signed the UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action. They agreed to include food systems, which contribute a significant percentage of global emissions and are fundamental to adaptation and resilience, in next-generation climate plans to be submitted to the UN.
But commitment on details has been thin, so how each country turns words into action will be crucial in 2024.
The next big climate milestones
In late 2024, COP29 will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, another oil-producing country. The focus will be on finance. But the next big milestone will be 2025, when governments must present future promises and plans to reduce emissions.
COP30 will be held in Belen, in the Brazilian state of Para, the frontline of Amazon protection. This will bring a focus on nature-based solutions, but from a Global South perspective. President Lula da Silva, who will also host the G20 in 2024, wants to see a change in the international trade and financial system that will reflect changes in the global economy.
COP28 put forward important initiatives but refrained from making binding commitments. As countries work on next-generation plans to put the world on the path to limiting global warming, they will need to consider their entire economy and include all greenhouse gases. The world cannot afford to resist twice.
This article is republished from The Conversation, an independent, nonprofit news organization providing facts and analysis to help you understand our complex world.
Written by: Rachel Kyte, Tufts University.
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Rachel Kyte is affiliated with VCMI – Voluntary Carbon Markets Integrity Initiative and Climate Resilience for the Whole CRA