Vermont is underwater. Not just yesterday, not just two weeks ago, and not just a year ago, but experts say the state could see more of these catastrophic events for the foreseeable future.
Climate change is fueling stronger, more persistent storms, and the state’s infrastructure is lagging behind along the riverside villages of the Green Mountains, a region of steep slopes and rugged hills that carry large amounts of water.
Now those towns are at the epicenter of a flooding puzzle that state and federal officials are trying to solve.
Meanwhile, many homeowners are still trying to rebuild their homes after the floods a year ago that were considered historic at the time.
A combination of factors makes Vermont vulnerable to this type of devastating flooding. Here’s a look at a few, along with photos and videos from recent storms.
Climate change is warming the atmosphere
Such extreme flooding conditions are often the result of random, short-term natural weather patterns that are intensified by long-term, human-induced climate change.
With climate change, storms are forming in a warmer atmosphere, making extreme precipitation a more frequent reality. Additional warming that scientists predict is coming will make things worse, and the Northeastern U.S. is among the regions that will experience more intense precipitation in the future.
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, which causes storms to dump more precipitation, which can be deadly or devastating. For every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) the atmosphere warms, it holds about 7% more moisture.
A study published last year in the journal Climate Change found that extreme precipitation in the Northeast is set to increase 52% by the end of the century. One of the study’s authors, Jonathan Winter, an associate professor of geography at Dartmouth College, also contributed to a study that found a 50% increase in extreme precipitation events from 1996 to 2014.
Winter said the research suggests that the ability of air to hold more water in warmer climates is the primary force behind the increase in extreme precipitation.
“This essentially provides more fuel to the storms so that when the right conditions occur for an extreme rainfall event like the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, a larger storm is created than we would have experienced without climate change,” he said.
Mountainous terrain and saturated soil
Vermont has more than 7,000 miles (11,300 kilometers) of rivers strung between rural roads, and these roads pass by vast landscapes and valuable ski resorts. Residents are scattered along miles of dirt roads that wind through the wilderness, and many have streams that flow into larger rivers than their property. Great mountains give way to deep valleys with rivers and streams on all sides.
Many rural communities can quickly become cut off when roads are flooded, and those living near waterways where people settled during the mill era can face flash floods that move rocks, trees and cars past their homes.
Vermont has experienced four floods in the past year, and a combination of climate change and the state’s mountainous geography is a big part of that, said Peter Banacos, a science and operations officer with the National Weather Service in Burlington. More precipitation and increased moisture availability have made the state’s steep terrain more susceptible to flooding, he said.
Banacos said the state’s soils are becoming saturated more frequently, increasing the likelihood of flooding.
“When we see more frequent precipitation events, often when they come in rapid succession, we see soil conditions become more moist or saturated by the time the next heavy rain arrives,” Banacos said.
Heavily manipulated rivers
Vermont’s history of heavily manipulating its rivers and streams also plays a role in increased flooding, said Julie Moore, secretary of the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources.
Moore said the floods were “a reflection of the limits of our ability to really manage and keep rivers in place.”
Infrastructure such as roads, bridges, culverts and wastewater plants are particularly vulnerable, Moore said.
The state has been involved in a decades-long effort to strengthen infrastructure, with the goal of replacing or repairing structures “with our current and future climate in mind,” Moore said.
Vermont is also working to establish statewide floodplain standards.
A collapsing dam system
Dams in Vermont are increasingly at risk as climate change brings heavier rainfall and stronger storms. Last year, the state experienced severe flooding, causing five dams to fail and about 60 to overflow. While the flooding from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl was not as bad, dam officials were on high alert.
The challenge facing dams in Vermont comes as more dams nationwide overflow or collapse during heavy rains. Rapidan Dam, a 1910 hydroelectric dam in Minnesota, was severely damaged last month by the second-worst flood in history. And in Texas, flooding damaged the spillways at Lake Livingston Dam, about 65 miles (105 kilometers) northeast of Houston.
There are about 90,000 major dams in the United States. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, at least 4,000 are in poor or deficient condition and could kill people or harm the environment if they fail. They need to be inspected, upgraded, or even repaired immediately.
Like the rest of New England, Vermont has a number of older, smaller dams, mostly built to power textile mills, store water or irrigate farms. The concern is that these dams, built decades ago when climate-driven storms dumped large amounts of rain, have outlived their usefulness.